Four stories to watch out for in 2026

Key Concepts

• Space Militarization: Increasing competition and weaponization of space by major global powers (US, Russia, China, UK, France).
• Central Bank Independence: The degree to which central banks are free from political influence in setting monetary policy.
• Human Enhancement: The use of technology and drugs to improve human physical and cognitive capabilities.
• Historical Revisionism: The reinterpretation of historical narratives, often with political motivations.
• Politicization of Institutions: The increasing influence of political agendas on traditionally independent institutions.

The World in 2026: A Forecast of Trump’s Influence

The year 2026 is predicted to be heavily shaped by the presidency of Donald Trump, impacting global affairs from military strategy to economic policy and even the definition of national identity. This forecast outlines four key areas where significant developments are anticipated.

1. Intensifying Military Competition in Space

Military competition in space is expected to escalate dramatically in 2026. Planners recognize the criticality of space-based capabilities – launching weapons from, within, and towards space – in potential conflicts with Russia or China. Donald Trump has requested a 40% budget increase for the US Space Force, with a “Golden Dome” missile-defence shield under construction, led by a Space Force general. This system aims to intercept enemy missiles during launch but could theoretically target enemy satellites.

SpaceX’s Starship launch vehicle is also crucial, offering a rapid replenishment capability for American satellites in the event of a space war. The US has already assigned SpaceX the majority of national security launches. Other nations are also increasing their space capabilities: Britain is developing “counter-space” capabilities, France conducted a rendezvous operation near a suspected Russian satellite, and China has increased its satellite launches eight-fold since 2015, demonstrating “on-orbit dogfighting tactics.”

A significant concern is Russia’s potential development of a space-based nuclear weapon, capable of destroying large satellite constellations like Starlink or Golden Dome in a single strike. Such a weapon would violate the 1967 Outer Space Treaty, which prohibits weapons of mass destruction in orbit. The increasing centrality of space to warfare will result in more satellites, space weapons, and preparation for potential conflict.

2. Political Pressure on Central Banks

Central bankers, traditionally considered independent, will face increasing political pressure in 2026. President Trump will nominate a replacement for Jerome Powell, chair of the Federal Reserve, whose term ends in May. Trump has publicly criticized Powell for not cutting interest rates sufficiently, stating, "I call him ‘too late’. He should’ve cut interest rates a long time ago."

The potential for a nominee who prioritizes Trump’s desires over economic needs is high. This trend isn’t limited to the US; Japan’s new prime minister, Takaichi Sanae, has pressured the Bank of Japan to maintain low rates, and Jordan Bardella of France suggested the European Central Bank could bail out France by purchasing its debt. In Britain, both the Green and Reform parties propose changes to the Bank of England to fund their policies. As one commentator noted regarding the Bank of England governor, Andrew Bailey, "Well he's a nice enough bloke. Would he keep his job if you were prime minister? Well he's had a good run. We might find someone new."

Historical precedent, such as President Nixon’s pressure on Fed Chair Arthur Burns in the 1970s, demonstrates the disastrous consequences of politicized monetary policy, leading to rampant inflation. Nixon himself stated, "I respect his independence. However I hope that independently he will conclude that my views are the ones that should be followed." Kevin Hassett, a potential Fed chair nominee, is aware of these risks, but his willingness to resist Trump’s pressure remains uncertain. The outcome will determine whether central bank independence, a cornerstone of economic stability, will be preserved.

3. Testing the Boundaries of Human Enhancement

2026 will witness a groundbreaking, and controversial, sporting event: the Enhanced Games in Las Vegas. This event will positively encourage the use of performance-enhancing drugs. Athletes will receive substantial appearance fees and bonuses, including $250,000 for breaking world records and $1 million for breaking records in the 50m freestyle or 100m sprint. Participation as a “natural athlete” is also permitted, but those using enhancements will be under medical supervision.

Backed by investors like Peter Thiel and Christian Angermayer, the Games envision a future where human enhancement is commonplace. As Angermayer stated, "We want you to be able to change your heart and change your mind and change your whole body." However, the event faces strong criticism from sporting bodies and anti-doping agencies, with concerns about safety and the normalization of drug use. One critic stated, "Looking at this from the outside, it's just got death written all over it."

The normalization of enhancement is already occurring through social media, gym culture, and the pharmaceutical industry. The human enhancement market is currently valued at $125 billion, encompassing wearables, exoskeletons, and neural implants. The Enhanced Games represent a significant step towards a future where the boundaries of human capability are actively pushed.

4. A Divided America and the Battle for Historical Narrative

America’s 250th birthday in 2026 will be marked by a stark division in how the nation’s history is interpreted and celebrated. Two rival commissions are planning events: the officially sanctioned “America250 Commission” (co-chaired by the Obamas and Bushes) and Donald Trump’s “Task Force 250.”

The commissions have fundamentally different approaches. America250 is focused on collecting diverse American stories through a writing contest and historical archiving, while Task Force 250 is planning a televised youth athletics competition (“the Patriot Games”) led by RFK Jr. Trump’s commission has even proposed a UFC fight on the White House lawn. "We're going to have a UFC fight on the grounds of the White House."

This reflects a broader trend of historical revisionism, with Trump aiming to reshape the national narrative. He stated, "Our country will be woke no longer." The celebrations in 2026 will therefore be a reflection of America’s deep political divisions, with history itself becoming a partisan battleground.

Technical Terms:

• Starlink: A satellite internet constellation operated by SpaceX.
• Golden Dome: A planned US missile-defence shield utilizing space-based interceptors.
• Outer Space Treaty of 1967: An international treaty prohibiting the placement of weapons of mass destruction in orbit.
• Semiquinncentennial: The 250th anniversary of a significant event.
• Politicization: The process of making something political.
• Pharmaceuticalization: The increasing medicalization of everyday life.

Conclusion:

2026 is poised to be a year of significant upheaval and transformation, largely driven by the influence of Donald Trump. From the escalating militarization of space and the potential erosion of central bank independence to the ethical challenges of human enhancement and the battle over America’s historical narrative, the coming year will test the boundaries of established norms and institutions. The choices made in 2026 will have lasting consequences for the global landscape and the future of American society.