Former US Ambassador: That Vietnamese woman left a great impact on my career! | Ted Osius | EP 362

Key Concepts

• Vietnam's Economic Transformation: From extreme poverty to a dynamic, growing economy.
• Emerging Technologies: Vietnam's engagement with AI, biotech, and quantum computing.
• US-Vietnam Relations: Evolution from post-war reconciliation to a comprehensive strategic partnership.
• Bilateral Trade Agreement: A significant milestone in Vietnam's economic integration.
• Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) / CPTPP: Vietnam's commitment to global trade agreements.
• Foreign Direct Investment (FDI): Increasing investment in Vietnam.
• Forgiveness and Reconciliation: The personal and national journey of moving past historical conflict.
• Role of the Internet: Increased global connectivity and its impact on Vietnam.
• Innovation and Entrepreneurship: Vietnam's growing ecosystem of innovators.
• US-ASEAN Business Council: Advocacy and support for American companies in Southeast Asia.
• Energy Sector Reforms: Addressing Vietnam's growing energy demands.
• Human Capital Development: The importance of education and talent for future growth.

Vietnam's Phenomenal Growth and Future Potential

The discussion highlights Vietnam's remarkable transformation over the past 30 years, moving from a country with over half its population living in extreme poverty (defined as less than $1 a day) to a rapidly developing nation. This shift is characterized by "phenomenal growth," evident in the transition from bicycles to motorbikes and now the presence of luxury cars on its streets. Vietnam is described as more confident and dynamic, with its people being rewarded for hard work and engaging with the world.

The Role of the Internet and Emerging Technologies

A significant change noted is the pervasive role of the internet, connecting Vietnamese people, especially the youth, globally through social media. This connectivity fuels Vietnam's emergence as a hub for innovation, with a focus on cutting-edge technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI), biotechnology, and quantum computing. The speaker expresses a strong belief that Vietnam is on track to become the "next tiger" economy, or has already achieved this status, citing its young, talented, and hardworking population.

Economic Aspirations and Global Integration

Vietnam has progressed from a poor country to a lower-middle-income country and holds high aspirations to reach upper-middle-income and then high-income status within the next 20 years. This trajectory is seen as achievable, mirroring the development paths of Taiwan and Korea. Vietnam's integration into the global economy is robust, with trade agreements covering 90% of the world's GDP, signifying a truly open economy.

Milestones in US-Vietnam Relations

The relationship between the United States and Vietnam has undergone a significant evolution, marked by several key milestones.

Early Trade Agreements and WTO Accession

The foundation for improved relations was laid with the negotiation of a bilateral trade agreement between the US and Vietnam, which had a substantial impact on Vietnam's economy. This was followed by Vietnam's accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2007, a period that saw a significant increase in Foreign Direct Investment (FDI).

The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and its Successor

A major focus during the speaker's tenure as ambassador (2014-2017) was bringing Vietnam into the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) Trade Agreement. Although the US later withdrew from the TPP, Vietnam continued its integration by joining the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). This demonstrated Vietnam's commitment to global economic engagement.

Deepening Partnership and Security Cooperation

A pivotal moment was the visit of General Secretary Nguyễn Phú Trọng to Washington D.C. in July 2015. This visit was instrumental in solidifying the decision to deepen the partnership with the United States, leading to a significant acceleration in cooperation across various sectors, including security, environment, commerce, and education. The introduction of the Peace Corps and the establishment of Fulbright University Vietnam are notable outcomes of this period. The relationship received a "double upgrade" in 2023 to a comprehensive strategic partnership, indicating its continued strength.

High-Level Visits and Public Reception

The visit of U.S. President Barack Obama in May 2016, shortly after the speaker's arrival, was another impactful event. The immense public reception, with crowds lining the streets, underscored the positive sentiment towards the US. President Obama's engagement with entrepreneurs and youth, including meeting with 800 young people and hearing a rapper, highlighted his interest in Vietnam's dynamic present and future. This visit is seen as having been significantly enabled by General Secretary Trọng's earlier visit to Washington.

Personal Journey of Understanding and Forgiveness

Ted's personal journey in Vietnam has been deeply shaped by his experiences, particularly a 16-day, 1,200-mile bike trip from Hanoi to Ho Chi Minh City in 1997.

Learning Through Landscape and Culture

This journey provided an intimate understanding of the Vietnamese landscape and its agricultural cycles, particularly rice cultivation, from north to south. Rice, being central to Vietnamese culture and sustenance, offered insights into the people's way of life. The enthusiastic reception from children and locals during the bike trip, where the group was seen as a spectacle, fostered a sense of warmth and welcome. This experience solidified Ted's love for Vietnam and his desire to be a part of its future.

The Power of Forgiveness in Quảng Trị Province

A profound moment of learning occurred on a bridge in Quảng Trị province, a historically significant area that once divided North and South Vietnam. While observing ponds, which were revealed to be bomb craters, Ted encountered a woman who shared her personal story of loss during the war. Despite her direct suffering, when Ted identified himself as American and representing the embassy, she referred to him as "little brother" (em) in a familial and forgiving manner. This act of forgiveness, extending even to those who caused immense harm, deeply impacted Ted and provided a powerful understanding of Vietnam's willingness to reconcile and embrace the future. This experience, along with witnessing the cleanup of unexploded ordnance and dioxin contamination, underscored the importance of honesty about the past in building a new future.

Ted's Current Work and Contributions

Ted's career has spanned diplomatic service, corporate leadership, and educational initiatives, all contributing to strengthening US-Vietnam ties and fostering regional development.

Bringing Google to Vietnam

As VP of Government Affairs for APAC at Google, Ted played a role in establishing Google's physical presence in Vietnam. Despite initial reluctance due to content issues with YouTube, Scott Beaumont, then President of Google Asia Pacific, was persuaded to visit Vietnam. Ted facilitated these meetings, highlighting the opportunities and assuring that Vietnam desired Google's presence. Beaumont's decision to take the risk led to Google's flourishing operations in Vietnam, contributing to the local ecosystem in AI and quantum computing.

Fulbright University Vietnam: A Cornerstone of Academic Freedom

Ted's involvement with Fulbright University Vietnam, a Vietnamese university, is seen as a cornerstone of the US-Vietnam relationship. The granting of its license, facilitated by General Secretary Nguyễn Phú Trọng's visit to New York, was contingent on academic freedom. This commitment to freedom of inquiry is crucial for fostering innovation, which is essential for Vietnam's aspiration to become a top 20 global economy. The university is building a new campus in the Saigon High-Tech Park, signifying its integration into Vietnam's educational and innovation ecosystem.

US-ASEAN Business Council: Advocacy and Facilitation

As Regional Managing Director of the US-ASEAN Business Council, Ted's mission is to help American companies succeed in Southeast Asia. The council's primary focus is advocacy, engaging with governments to align business interests with national growth and reform agendas. Vietnam is highlighted as a particularly responsive government to the council's efforts. The council facilitates high-level discussions with Vietnamese leadership, addressing issues such as decision-making speed and energy sector reforms.

Key Concerns and Opportunities for US Companies

While acknowledging challenges like sometimes slow decision-making due to ongoing reforms, Ted emphasizes that companies are committed to investing further in Vietnam. The energy sector is a significant concern, with the need for substantial growth in energy capacity to support Vietnam's high economic growth rates. Reforms in direct power purchase agreements and a five-year power production plan are in place, with a focus on renewables and reduced dependence on coal, partly in response to investor demand for clean energy. The US private sector is ready to support Vietnam with LNG, infrastructure, and investment, provided there is regulatory clarity and reduced bureaucracy.

The Pitch for Vietnam: A Story of Growth

For American companies considering Vietnam, Ted's core message is one of sustained growth. He points to Vietnam's trajectory towards becoming a high-income economy by 2045, with consistent growth rates exceeding 6% and recent quarterly growth over 8%. He reiterates the aspiration for Vietnam to be among the top 20 economies by 2045, a goal he believes is achievable given the country's determination. The emergence of investment firms like "20 and 20," founded by individuals with Wall Street experience, aims to facilitate institutional investment by providing due diligence and on-the-ground insights.

The Council's Role as a Connector and Information Provider

The US-ASEAN Business Council acts as a crucial connector, opening doors in Southeast Asia and particularly in Vietnam. Their strength lies in advocacy and providing information to help companies navigate the complexities of doing business in the region. They explain regional nuances, such as differing tax laws or regulatory environments, and share best practices across ASEAN countries, including in areas like critical minerals and the digital economy. While not directly involved in matching companies with local partners, they facilitate understanding and strategic decision-making for businesses looking to invest in ASEAN.

A Message to Vietnamese in the US and Future Aspirations

Ted encourages Vietnamese individuals studying or working in the US to return to Vietnam after completing their education, emphasizing that it is a welcoming and hospitable place for innovation and entrepreneurship. He expresses a desire to learn from Vietnamese business and civil society leaders about what is working in the country, believing their insights are crucial for understanding Vietnam's innovation story and its growing soft power, akin to South Korea's cultural influence.