Former NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg: 'The transatlantic relationship is facing some serious problems'

Key Concepts

• Transatlantic Relationship: The political and military alliance between North America (primarily the US) and Europe.
• NATO Expansion: The ongoing process of increasing the number of member states in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
• Russian Aggression: Russia’s military actions, particularly the invasion of Ukraine, and its impact on European security.
• Defense Spending: The allocation of financial resources by NATO member states towards military capabilities.
• Ukraine Support: The provision of military, financial, and humanitarian aid to Ukraine by NATO allies.
• Long-Range Fires/Precision Weapons: Advanced weaponry systems capable of striking targets at significant distances with high accuracy.
• Strategic Autonomy: The concept of Europe increasing its independent capacity to act on the world stage, including in defense and security.

The Evolving Transatlantic Relationship and European Security – Insights from Jens Stoltenberg

Introduction

This discussion with former NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, now incoming Chairman of the Munich Security Conference, centers on the current state of the transatlantic relationship, the challenges facing NATO, and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. The conversation highlights a shift in dynamics, increased European responsibility, and the critical need for continued support for Ukraine.

I. The State of the Transatlantic Relationship

Stoltenberg acknowledges a period of “serious problems and disagreements” within the transatlantic relationship, representing a “fundamental change” from previous years characterized by strong cooperation. However, he firmly believes in the continued necessity of collaboration between Europe and North America for mutual security. He identifies key areas of contention as including “tariffs, trade, and Greenland,” but emphasizes that these disagreements do not signal the end of the alliance.

The tension experienced in the previous year (likely referencing 2023) has eased due to Secretary Rubio’s (likely a misstatement for Secretary Blinken) willingness to engage in dialogue and recognize the importance of European allies, including Canada. While problems remain, a “process” is now underway to address the dispute over Greenland, with both Denmark and the United States demonstrating a “will to find common ground.”

II. Beyond Monetary Disputes: The Greenland Issue and Shifting Concerns

The conversation contrasts past disagreements, primarily focused on financial contributions, with the current situation surrounding Greenland. While financial issues remain relevant, the attempted assertion of US claims over Danish/Greenlandic territory represents a qualitatively different and more serious challenge. Stoltenberg notes the past focus on ensuring allies “pay full price for their insurance policy” (a reference to President Trump’s demands for increased defense spending) now seems relatively simple compared to the potential for conflict between allies.

III. Increased European Defense Spending and Responsibility

A central theme is the increasing financial commitment to defense by European allies and Canada. Stoltenberg points out that criticism from the US, particularly during the Trump administration, was directed not at NATO itself, but at allies not meeting their financial obligations. He confirms that European nations are “delivering” on their commitments to increase defense spending. Norway, specifically, has surpassed the 3% GDP target, including significant support for Ukraine. He recalls a time when Norway, under his own tenure as Minister of Finance in the 1990s, was actively reducing defense spending following the end of the Cold War, a decision he now acknowledges was perhaps overly optimistic given Russia’s resurgence.

IV. Ukraine: A Critical Turning Point and the Cost of Delayed Support

Stoltenberg expresses deep concern regarding the situation in Ukraine, referencing the emotional impact of witnessing the consequences of the conflict firsthand, particularly after the fall of Bakhmut. He admits to regretting that NATO allies did not provide more support to Ukraine earlier, specifically starting in 2014 following the annexation of Crimea. He believes earlier and more substantial aid – including arms and training – could have potentially prevented the full-scale invasion in 2022 and allowed Ukraine to control more territory.

He advocates for continued and increased support for Ukraine, including the provision of “long-range fires,” “precision weapons,” and “advanced weapon systems.” He acknowledges the difficulty some have in articulating a clear goal for Ukraine, but asserts that enabling Ukraine to impose significant costs on Russia, forcing negotiations on terms favorable to Ukraine’s sovereignty and independence, is “absolutely possible.” He cites data showing Russia’s limited territorial gains in 2023 (less than 1% of Ukrainian territory) at a high cost of approximately 1,000 casualties per day, coupled with the economic strain on Russia and the expansion of NATO with the addition of Finland and Sweden as evidence of Ukraine’s resilience and the effectiveness of allied support.

V. Norway’s Contribution and the Call for Further Action

Norway is highlighted as a significant contributor to Ukraine’s defense, providing 7.3 billion euros in support, representing 1.3% of its GDP – a higher percentage than many other allies. Stoltenberg emphasizes the need for other allies to increase their contributions and provide more advanced weaponry.

VI. Leadership and Future Outlook

Stoltenberg acknowledges the challenging position now held by Mark Rutte (the current NATO Secretary General) and expresses confidence in his ability to navigate these complexities. He expresses his own happiness in his current role as Minister of Finance in Norway and his motivation to take on the chairmanship of the Munich Security Conference. He hopes that the next Munich Security Conference will be characterized by “optimism” and a renewed belief in progress, achievable through dialogue and the pursuit of common ground. He expresses respect for the current Secretary General, Maruta, and acknowledges the enormous challenges he has faced.

VII. The Question of Ukrainian Victory

When pressed on whether Ukraine must win, Stoltenberg clarifies that “winning” doesn’t necessarily mean reclaiming all lost territory. A more realistic and achievable goal is for Ukraine to secure its sovereignty and independence through a negotiated peace that imposes unacceptable costs on Russia.

Data and Statistics Mentioned:

• Norway’s Defense Spending: Above 3% of GDP, including support for Ukraine.
• Norway’s Financial Support to Ukraine: 7.3 billion euros.
• Norway’s GDP Contribution to Ukraine: 1.3% of GDP.
• Russian Territorial Gains in 2023: Less than 0.8% of Ukrainian territory.
• Russian Casualties: Approximately 1,000 per day.

Conclusion

The conversation paints a picture of a transatlantic relationship undergoing significant strain but not necessarily collapse. Increased European defense spending and a renewed focus on collective security are emerging trends. The situation in Ukraine remains paramount, with a strong emphasis on the need for continued and enhanced support to enable Ukraine to defend its sovereignty and deter further Russian aggression. The future hinges on sustained commitment, dialogue, and a willingness to address underlying disagreements to foster a more stable and secure international order.