First Venezuela, then Iran. Is Cuba next on Trump’s hit list?

Key Concepts

• Epic Fury: The code name for the U.S. military operation against Iran.
• Strait of Hormuz: A critical maritime chokepoint where Iran is attempting to implement a tolling system.
• THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense): An anti-ballistic missile defense system; the U.S. has reportedly depleted half its inventory defending Israel.
• Havana Syndrome: A mysterious set of medical symptoms reported by U.S. diplomats, suspected to be caused by sonic or directed-energy weapons.
• Casus Belli: An act or event that provokes or is used to justify a war.
• Geopolitical "Cleanup": The strategic doctrine of neutralizing regional adversaries (Cuba, Venezuela, Iran) to secure the Western Hemisphere before a potential major conflict in the Pacific (China/Taiwan).

---

1. The War in Iran and Regional Updates

• Current Status: Despite a ceasefire being in place for 44 days, the war is technically ongoing. President Trump has claimed the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
• Strait of Hormuz Tolls: Iran is negotiating with Oman to establish a "service fee" system for vessels transiting the Strait. The U.S. (via Secretary of State Marco Rubio) strongly opposes this, arguing it sets a dangerous global precedent for international waterways.
• Military Depletion: The U.S. Department of Defense reports that defending Israel has exhausted roughly 50% of the U.S. THAAD inventory (approx. 200 missiles) and over 100 Standard Missile 3/6 interceptors.
• Arms Sale Pause: The U.S. has paused a $14 billion arms sale to Taiwan (including PAC-3 missiles) to prioritize munitions for "Epic Fury." Acting Navy Secretary Hung Cao confirmed this, noting the pause is temporary to ensure domestic readiness.

2. Escalation in the Caribbean: The Case of Cuba

• New Strategic Focus: The U.S. is shifting attention toward Cuba, mirroring the tactics used against Venezuela. This includes an indictment against former leader Raul Castro for a 1996 aircraft shoot-down and leaked reports of Cuba acquiring 300+ drones to threaten Guantanamo Bay.
• Expert Perspective: Carlos Solar (RUSI) argues that while Cuba is not a significant military threat, the U.S. is using these narratives to create a casus belli. The goal is to remove the "Castro" influence and force a transition toward a pro-Western economic model.
• Economic Vulnerability: Cuba is suffering from a severe fuel blockade and economic collapse. The loss of oil subsidies from Venezuela and the decline of tourism have left the country in "dire conditions," with frequent power outages and food shortages.

3. Strategic Framework: The "Grand Strategy"

• Preemptive Neutralization: The overarching U.S. strategy, as discussed by Jack Watling and Carlos Solar, is to "put out small fires" in the Western Hemisphere to ensure the region is secure before a potential confrontation with China or Russia.
• Chokepoint Control: The administration is focusing on critical maritime and logistical nodes (Panama Canal, Magellan Strait, and the Caribbean) to prevent Chinese and Russian influence from gaining a foothold in the Americas.
• The Role of Marco Rubio: As Secretary of State and a member of the National Security Council, Rubio is the primary architect of this aggressive Latin American policy, leveraging his deep knowledge of the Cuban lobby and regional politics.

4. Notable Quotes

• Acting Navy Secretary Hung Cao: "Right now, we're doing a pause in order to make sure we have the munitions we need for Epic Fury, which we have plenty."
• Marco Rubio (on the Strait of Hormuz): "If Iran got the chance to charge tolls in the strait, it will happen in five other places around the world. That's just not acceptable."
• Carlos Solar (on U.S. strategy): "Donald Trump has looked at the map again and said, 'Why do we have all these little fires within my region? And why don't we put them out before a bigger fire starts elsewhere?'"

5. Synthesis and Conclusion

The current U.S. foreign policy under the Trump administration is characterized by a shift toward aggressive, unilateral interventionism. By prioritizing the "Epic Fury" operation in Iran, the U.S. has accepted significant depletion of its strategic missile defense stocks, leading to a temporary suspension of military support for Taiwan. Simultaneously, the administration is applying a "Venezuela-style" pressure campaign on Cuba. The underlying logic is a grand strategic effort to purge the Western Hemisphere of adversarial influence (Russia/China/Iran) to ensure the U.S. can focus its full military and economic might on the Indo-Pacific theater without domestic distractions.