First stop: What Trump wants from the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia | DW News

Key Concepts

Donald Trump's Middle East tour, US-Saudi relations, Geostrategic deals, Economic investments, Iran nuclear program, Gaza conflict, US foreign policy shift, Israel's role, Gulf States as power contributors, MAGA agenda, Conflict resolution, US withdrawal from the Middle East.

Trump's Middle East Tour: Objectives and Expectations

President Donald Trump's visit to Saudi Arabia marks his first major diplomatic trip in his second term. The primary objective is to secure "deals, deals, deals," encompassing both economic investments and geostrategic agreements. Trump aims to generate positive headlines domestically by securing substantial investments from Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries (Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE) and demonstrating progress on his "Make America Great Again" (MAGA) agenda.

• Economic Goals: Trump seeks hundreds of billions of dollars in investments from Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE to boost the US economy. He explicitly stated a desire for a trillion-dollar investment over four years.
• Geostrategic Goals: Trump aims to leverage the Gulf States' influence to address regional conflicts, including those involving Iran, Yemen, Palestine/Israel, and Syria. He wants to shift the burden of conflict resolution and statecraft to local partners, enabling a US withdrawal from the Middle East.
• Specific Issues: Discussions are expected to cover ending the war in Gaza, dismantling Iran's nuclear program, the price of oil, and diplomatic efforts to resolve conflicts in the region and beyond.

US-Saudi Relations: A History of Mutual Benefit

Trump's relationship with Saudi Arabia has been close since his first state visit in 2017. Both parties have used the relationship for diplomatic and financial gain.

• Past Cooperation: Saudi Arabia has assisted Trump's administration with diplomatic outreach to Russia and pledged significant investments in the US, including investments in Trump-owned companies.
• Current Deals: The Saudis are securing the purchase of $3.5 billion worth of US-made missiles, and Trump is considering a further $100 billion arms sale. The US has also signed an agreement to help Saudi Arabia develop a civil nuclear energy program.
• Trump's Personal Gains: Trump's golf courses have hosted tournaments backed by the Saudi Sovereign Wealth Fund, which has also invested billions in a fund run by Trump's family members. New Trump-branded towers and resorts are planned in the region, funded by Saudi investments.

The Gulf States as Key Players: Shifting Geopolitical Dynamics

The Gulf States (Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE) have become increasingly important in the region, shifting the center of gravity from the Levant.

• Financial Stability and Strategic Outlook: These states are financially stable and possess a forward-looking grand strategic outlook.
• Contributors to US Power: They have become net contributors to US power projection in the region, rather than net consumers, making them indispensable partners. They are net exporters of influence that supports the US agenda in the region.
• Trustworthy Partners: The Gulf States are considered trustworthy partners capable of bearing the burden of conflict management and resolution.

Israel's Diminishing Role: A Shift in US Foreign Policy

The Trump administration is perceived to be sidelining Israel in its foreign policy approach, focusing more on relationships with the Gulf States.

• Net Consumer of US Power: Israel is seen as a net consumer of US power, dragging the US into regional conflicts.
• Obstruction to Peace: The Netanyahu government is viewed as an obstacle to resolving conflicts in Gaza and elsewhere, and a disruptor in Lebanon and Syria.
• Conflict with MAGA Agenda: Israel's actions conflict with the MAGA agenda of withdrawing the US from the Middle East.
• Examples of Sidelining: This shift is evidenced by the ceasefire between the US and the Houthis, nuclear talks with Iran in Oman, and the release of a dual US-Israeli citizen without involving Israel.

The Gaza Conflict: Divergent Views and Potential Solutions

Trump's plan for a US-led takeover of war-ravaged Gaza and the relocation of people from Gaza to territories in the region is opposed by Saudi Arabia, which demands the creation of a Palestinian state.

• Saudi Opposition: Saudi Arabia has accused Israel of committing genocide in Gaza and opposes Trump's plan.
• Hostage Deal Opportunity: Despite the challenges, some see a window of opportunity for a hostage deal in Gaza during Trump's visit.
• Trump's Flexibility: Trump is willing to adapt his plans based on the needs and desires of the Gulf countries.

Potential for Russia-Ukraine Talks in Turkey

Trump has suggested he might travel to Turkey if talks take place between Russia and Ukraine.

• Trump's Goal: Trump aims to freeze the conflict in Ukraine.
• Potential Participation: If Putin and Zelenskyy meet in Istanbul, Trump might participate if he believes his presence could increase the chances of a breakthrough.

Conclusion

President Trump's Middle East tour is driven by a desire to secure economic investments and geostrategic deals that align with his MAGA agenda. The Gulf States are viewed as key partners in achieving these goals, while Israel's role is being re-evaluated. The visit presents opportunities for progress on regional conflicts, including the war in Gaza and the situation in Ukraine, but success will depend on navigating divergent views and priorities.