Finland FM: Trump, Putin and the chances of a Russia-Ukraine peace deal | Talk to Al Jazeera

Key Concepts

• Russia's Invasion of Ukraine (2022): A pivotal event leading to significant geopolitical shifts in Europe.
• Finland's NATO Membership: A departure from its long-standing neutrality policy, driven by the war in Ukraine.
• Frozen Russian Assets: Assets belonging to Russia that have been frozen by Western countries, with discussions on their use for Ukrainian reparations.
• Multilateralism and UN Charter: The importance of international law and principles like territorial integrity and sovereignty in global settlements.
• Post-Governance in Gaza: The complex issue of who will govern Gaza after potential conflict resolution, with a focus on a rejuvenated Palestinian Authority.
• Two-State Solution: The internationally recognized framework for resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
• Hybrid Warfare: The use of unconventional tactics, including disinformation and cyberattacks, to achieve political objectives.
• EU-US Relations: The current state and strength of the transatlantic partnership.

War in Ukraine and Western Support

The discussion begins by highlighting Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine as a turning point for Europe, forcing a re-evaluation of defense capabilities. Finland, with its long border with Russia, has joined NATO in 2023, ending its neutrality.

Key Points:

• Western Support for Ukraine: While acknowledging the support received, Finland's Minister of Foreign Affairs, Alina Valinan, stated that "it could always be more."
• Frozen Russian Assets: Valinan emphasized the fairness of making Russia pay for the "pain it's causing," particularly through the use of frozen Russian assets for Ukrainian reparations. She noted that the Belgian government is aware of the importance of utilizing these assets and that the EU must operate within international law. The longer the war continues, the more judicial reasoning exists for using these assets, with the caveat that the EU must support Belgium and other member states against potential financial or political consequences.
• Military Developments: Regarding the military situation on the ground, Valinan shifted the focus from Ukraine's limitations to Russia's diminished geopolitical position. She described the full-scale invasion as a "massive mistake" by the Kremlin, resulting in significant losses of soldiers, equipment, and money, as well as a decline in international status, despite cooperation with China. She pointed out that Russia has made no strategic gains in the past 12-18 months, leading to the question of why the war continues.

Prospects for Peace and a Settlement

The conversation then delves into the conditions and potential pathways for ending the war in Ukraine.

Key Arguments and Perspectives:

• Global Implications: Valinan stressed that the conflict is not just about Ukraine or Europe but about the future of multilateralism and the UN Charter, particularly concerning territorial integrity and sovereignty.
• Concessions and Annexation: When asked if Finland would accept a peace deal involving the annexation of Ukrainian territories (Crimea, Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk, and parts of Zaporizhzhia), Valinan expressed strong opposition, stating, "I wouldn't even call that peace." She questioned whether those pushing for concessions fully understood what they were asking of Ukraine.
• Trust in Putin: Valinan expressed skepticism about Putin's desire for genuine peace, stating, "Putin wants all over Ukraine. Putin wants domination." She believes any peace deal would likely be a temporary pause for Russia to plan its next move.
• Immediate Ceasefire: She advocated for an immediate ceasefire to stop the killing, aligning with President Trump's sentiment.
• Leverage and Negotiations: The EU's concern is ensuring any deal is not perceived as an act of surrender for Ukraine. Valinan suggested that Trump and Putin could agree on issues concerning the US and Russia, but Ukraine's future is for Ukraine to decide, and Europe's future is for Europeans to decide.
• Russia's Motivation: Valinan's analysis is that "Russia is not interested in peace." To make Russia interested, two things are needed: changing their calculus by highlighting their weakening economy and bleak long-term outlook, and ensuring their military calculus shows no gains.

The Role of the European Union and Sanctions

The discussion addresses the EU's efforts to pressure Russia through sanctions and its role in international diplomacy.

Key Points:

• Sanctions Packages: Valinan expressed pride in the EU's ability to adopt 19 sanction packages with full consensus and confidence in adopting the 20th. She noted significant progress, particularly with sanctions on Russia's energy sector, aimed at forcing Russia to end its "illegal war."
• Economic Impact of Sanctions: She highlighted that sanctions are playing a significant role in weakening the Russian economy, citing high inflation and a benchmark interest rate of 17% (previously above 20%). She noted that Russia's growth has ceased due to massive public spending on the military, which does not benefit the average citizen.
• Full Sanctions vs. Circumvention: Valinan explained that the EU started with calculated steps and has since focused on countering sanctions circumvention. She acknowledged that initial hopes for a shorter war were not met, testament to Ukraine's resilience and Russia's relative weakness. The EU is in a phase of ramping up pressure through sanctions.
• Oil Price Cap and Shadow Fleet: The oil price cap has been effective in reducing Russia's oil export income. However, Russia has responded by developing a "shadow fleet," which has become a significant focus for sanctions packages.

Post-Governance in Gaza and the Middle East Peace Process

The conversation shifts to the situation in Gaza and the broader Middle East peace process.

Key Points:

• Fragile Ceasefire and Optimism: Valinan expressed the need to remain optimistic about the potential for a permanent peace agreement, despite the difficulties. She noted that a ceasefire only addresses Gaza and leaves out the West Bank, where the situation is also concerning.
• Hamas's Role: A key demand of the international community, including Finland, is for Hamas to be removed from governance and disarmed, a task described as "very, very tedious."
• Rejuvenated Palestinian Authority: Valinan supports the idea of a rejuvenated, civilian Palestinian Authority committed to peace and coexistence as an interim solution, followed by democratic elections.
• EU's Role in Reconstruction: While not currently debating billions in reconstruction aid, Valinan stated that the EU will have to step in. She emphasized that the EU's role cannot solely be financial, as it is already the largest provider of humanitarian aid and has funded the Palestinian Authority. She hopes for global partners, especially regional players, to contribute to reconstruction, economic development, and security.
• Two-State Solution and Recognition of Palestine: Finland supports the two-state solution as the only viable option and is in favor of recognizing the state of Palestine when specific criteria are met. These criteria include the release of hostages and, more critically, the disarming of Hamas and the removal of other terrorist groups. Valinan stressed that both Palestine and Israel have the right to exist peacefully.

Finland's Relationship with Russia and NATO

The final section focuses on Finland's relationship with Russia and its decision to join NATO.

Key Points:

• Strained Relations: Valinan described the current political relationship with Russia as non-existent, stating there is no reason for interaction until Russia ends its war in Ukraine and adheres to international law. However, operational relations, particularly concerning border management, are maintained.
• Pre-Invasion Engagement: She recalled that before the annexation of Crimea and the full-scale invasion, Europe was heavily involved with Russia through trade and political engagement, refuting claims that Russia was "pushed" into action.
• NATO as a Defensive Alliance: Valinan reiterated that NATO is a defensive alliance and not a threat to Russia, which already possesses the largest landmass globally.
• Finland's NATO Membership: She described Finland's NATO membership as a natural step, given its 30-year partnership with NATO and its consistent investment in defense. Finland's conscription-based army and significant defense targets were maintained even before joining NATO, recognizing Russia as a potential military threat.
• Hybrid Warfare and Information Space: Valinan expressed caution regarding specific incidents of hybrid warfare, emphasizing the need for thorough investigation before attributing them to state-sponsored actions. She acknowledged Russia's success in shaping the information space over the past decade, influencing Western perceptions. She refuted the idea that NATO expansion led to Russia's invasion, highlighting that Finland and Sweden joined NATO voluntarily out of a desire for safety.
• EU-US Relations: Valinan expressed confidence in the strength of EU-US relations, noting that NATO is at its strongest and that defense and deterrence capabilities have been significantly ramped up. She also described the relationship between the EU and the US as "very, very good," despite some trade issues, and expressed a desire for a free trade zone. She concluded by emphasizing the importance of protecting the free choice of people.