False information about Japan's M7.7 quake spread online — here's whyーNHK WORLD-JAPAN NEWS

Key Concepts

• Disinformation: False or misleading information spread, regardless of intent to deceive.
• Generative AI: Technology used to create realistic but fake imagery or video content.
• Seismic Forecasting: Unscientific claims predicting the timing, location, or magnitude of earthquakes.
• Disaster Exploitation: The practice of using public anxiety during crises for financial gain or social media engagement.
• Spam/Phishing: Malicious posts using disaster-related keywords to lure users into financial fraud.

1. The Rise of Digital Disinformation During Disasters

Following the recent earthquake in northeastern Japan, social media platforms became conduits for both critical information and dangerous misinformation. NHK World’s Okatani Hiroi highlights that while social media is a vital tool for real-time updates, it is increasingly being weaponized by bad actors who exploit the public's heightened state of anxiety.

• Misuse of Archival Footage: A prominent example involved a post on X (formerly Twitter) that claimed a current tsunami warning was in effect, accompanied by footage from the 2011 Great East Japan earthquake. This post garnered 1.9 million views, demonstrating how easily historical trauma can be repurposed to incite panic.
• Generative AI: The report identifies a new, sophisticated threat: the use of generative AI to create highly realistic, fabricated videos of disasters, making it increasingly difficult for the average user to distinguish between authentic footage and synthetic media.

2. Unscientific Earthquake Predictions

A recurring issue in Japan is the proliferation of accounts claiming to possess the ability to predict seismic activity.

• The "Broken Clock" Strategy: Some accounts post daily, unfounded earthquake predictions. By posting constantly, these accounts eventually "get it right" by sheer probability, creating a false sense of authority.
• Scientific Reality: The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) maintains that modern science cannot predict the exact date, location, or magnitude of an earthquake. The report emphasizes that any account claiming such insight should be ignored.

3. Financial Fraud and Spam Campaigns

Disaster-related keywords are being exploited to facilitate financial scams.

• Methodology: Bad actors use high-traffic disaster keywords to ensure their posts appear in search results. These posts direct users to messaging apps (specifically Line) to solicit investments or stock purchases.
• Scale of the Threat: As of Tuesday lunchtime, NHK confirmed over 15,000 such spam posts originating from more than 2,500 distinct accounts. This indicates a coordinated effort to capitalize on the vulnerability of those seeking information.

4. Best Practices for Information Verification

To mitigate the risks of misinformation, the report suggests a framework for digital hygiene during emergencies:

1. Evaluate the Source: Before trusting a post, examine the account’s history. If the account frequently posts sensationalist or emotionally charged content, it is likely unreliable.
2. Verify with Official Channels: Rely exclusively on information from public agencies (like the JMA) or established, reputable news organizations.
3. Exercise Restraint: Do not "like" or "share" unverified content. Engagement helps spread misinformation, even if the intent is to warn others.
4. Maintain Vigilance: During periods of ongoing seismic advisory, the pressure to find information is high; this is precisely when users must be most critical of the content they consume.

Synthesis and Conclusion

The aftermath of the northeastern Japan earthquake serves as a case study in the modern challenges of disaster communication. The convergence of generative AI, unscientific forecasting, and coordinated financial fraud creates a "second disaster" of misinformation. The primary takeaway is that while technology provides rapid access to information, it also demands a higher level of digital literacy. Users must prioritize official, verified sources over viral social media content to ensure their safety and financial security during times of crisis.