Explaining the recent rise in Jihadist violence in Nigeria | DW News

Key Concepts:

• Resurgence of Islamist attacks in Northeast Nigeria
• Boko Haram and Islamic State's West Africa Province (ISWAP)
• Amnesty and reintegration programs for militants (Operation Safe Corridor)
• Poverty, unemployment, and weak governance as drivers of violence
• Military's stretched resources and over-reliance on kinetic force
• Humanitarian crisis and food insecurity
• Need for integrated political, economic, and security reforms
• Tactical evolution of jihadist groups (drones, night attacks)
• Importance of intelligence-driven operations and community engagement

1. Resurgence of Violence in Northeast Nigeria

• There's a new upturn in violence in Nigeria's northeast after years of relative calm.
• More people were killed in the first half of this year than last year in total.
• The resurgence is primarily driven by Boko Haram and ISWAP.
• DW's report focuses on Boro State, the heartland of the insurgency.

2. The Perspective of a Former ISWAP Commander

• Ali (not his real name), a former ISWAP commander, left the group two years ago under a government amnesty deal.
• He is now ready to rejoin due to the government's failure to fulfill promises of jobs and support.
• "The government promised us jobs. That was the agreement. I don't have anything. No food, no job. When we go back, we are going to attack. Fight a war so we can eat and feed our families."
• He claims many who surrendered with him are ready to follow suit.

3. Impact on Civilians

• Civilians in Boro State are experiencing renewed attacks, leading to loss of life and fear.
• "Our husbands were killed because of attacks. Children are growing up without their parents. We are scared of a resurgence of attacks."
• At least 12 people were killed in June outside of Maiduguri in a suspected suicide bombing.
• Mud lost a leg in a roadside bomb attack. He criticizes the military's negligence.
• "Everyone was relaxed because it had been peaceful, but that was negligence. The military wasn't pursuing the militants. That's why they're strong again."

4. Government's Reintegration Program (Operation Safe Corridor)

• The government's reintegration program is a "work in progress" and "not perfect."
• Boro State commissioner acknowledges the need to balance the needs of former insurgents and victims.
• Experts warn that tackling terrorism requires addressing poverty and unemployment.
• Kabir Adamu notes that the program, initially intended to be managed by civilian entities, is now primarily managed by the military.
• He calls for an independent evaluation of Operation Safe Corridor to identify successes and gaps.

5. Factors Contributing to the Resurgence (Kabir Adamu's Analysis)

• Political, economic, and environmental factors contribute to the resurgence.
• Porous borders allow insurgents and equipment to enter Nigeria.
• Increased military deployments have stretched resources.
• Calls by global franchises like Islamic State and al-Qaeda are answered by local affiliates.
• ISWAP and Boko Haram are acting independently and are rivals, engaging in factional attacks.

6. Jihadist Groups' Objectives (Juma Yandere's Analysis)

• Groups like ISWAP and Boko Haram aim to establish an Islamic caliphate governed by their interpretation of Sharia law.
• They seek to control territory, people, and economic resources, especially in under-governed areas like the Lake Chad basin.
• Their agenda is both political and strategic, aiming to replace the authority of states in the region.
• ISWAP is now considered one of the most effective affiliates of the Islamic State globally.

7. Tactical Evolution and Mistakes in Counter-Insurgency (Juma Yandere's Analysis)

• The surge in violence is due to the tactical evolution of jihadist groups, including night attacks, drone use, and better coordination.
• Key missteps include an over-reliance on kinetic force without parallel political and economic interventions.
• Premature return of displaced persons to insecure areas exposes them to renewed attacks.

8. Humanitarian Crisis and Food Insecurity

• Aid organizations say more than a million people are facing starvation due to jihadist attacks, rising living costs, and cuts in foreign aid.
• The government needs to enhance federal and state interventions to address the gap created by reduced foreign aid.
• Local NGOs like the Dangote Foundation and BUA Foundation need to come together under an organized framework to provide support.

9. Impact on Everyday Nigerians (Juma Yandere's Analysis)

• The rise in violence deepens insecurity and increases humanitarian needs.
• Communities are repeatedly displaced, schools and hospitals remain closed, and trade routes are disrupted.
• Daily life has become a gamble between survival and flight for millions.

10. Challenges Faced by the Security Apparatus (Juma Yandere & Ogie Onuoha's Analysis)

• The Nigerian security forces are stretched thin, facing multiple threats across the country.
• Limited resources and bureaucratic delays hamper coordination.
• The system is strained and reactive rather than proactive.
• Ogie Onuoha emphasizes that the military's reliance on super camps has ceded areas to insurgents.
• He advocates for a shift from a defensive strategy to a proactive, intelligence-driven operation.
• Internal security is being handled by the military due to being overstretched.

11. Economic Desperation as a Driver of Violence (Ogie Onuoha's Analysis)

• The situation in the northeast is driven by poverty, unemployment, and weak local governance.
• The government needs to address poverty and tackle governance failures to prevent a second wave of terrorism.
• The current approach to dradicalization and reintegration is failing because it is not human-centered.

12. Conclusion

The resurgence of violence in Northeast Nigeria is a complex issue driven by a combination of factors, including the activities of Boko Haram and ISWAP, socio-economic conditions, and shortcomings in the government's counter-insurgency strategies. Addressing the crisis requires a multi-faceted approach that combines security measures with economic development, improved governance, and effective reintegration programs. Failure to do so risks further destabilization and a worsening humanitarian crisis.