Explainer: Mexico's Jalisco New Generation Cartel

Key Concepts

• CJNG (Jalisco New Generation Cartel): A rapidly growing Mexican transnational criminal organization, now a major competitor to the Sinaloa Cartel.
• Elmeno: Former leader of CJNG, recently killed by Mexican security forces.
• Transnational Criminal Organization (TCO): Criminal groups operating across international borders.
• ACLED: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project – an independent violence monitoring group.
• Claudia Sheinbaum: Current President of Mexico, leading an aggressive assault against cartels.
• Fentanyl: A potent synthetic opioid trafficked by Mexican cartels into the US.

The Death of Elmeno and the Escalating Conflict with CJNG

On Sunday, Mexican security forces successfully killed Nemesio Rubén Oseguera Cervantes, known as “Elmeno,” the leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG). This event marks a significant development in Mexico’s decades-long struggle against powerful drug cartels, particularly those heavily involved in the trafficking of narcotics, including fentanyl, into the United States. The operation was undertaken following sustained pressure from both American officials, including former President Trump, and widespread public outrage within Mexico. President Claudia Sheinbaum has spearheaded what is described as one of the most aggressive governmental assaults on cartel control in recent years.

CJNG: Structure, Operations, and Global Reach

The CJNG is currently considered one of the two largest transnational criminal organizations (TCOs) operating in Mexico, alongside the Sinaloa Cartel, according to the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA). Originating as a faction within the Sinaloa Cartel in 2009, CJNG formally split in 2014 and quickly rose to become its primary competitor. The National Counterterrorism Center estimates CJNG’s membership to be between 15,000 and 20,000 individuals.

The cartel’s operations are extensive and global, spanning nearly every continent and generating billions of dollars in revenue. Its criminal activities encompass a wide range of illicit enterprises, including drug smuggling (specifically fentanyl), kidnapping, migrant smuggling, extortion, and various other crimes. The US State Department officially designated CJNG as a terrorist organization in February of this year.

Violence and Civilian Impact

CJNG’s activities are characterized by a high level of violence. Data from the independent violence monitoring group ACLED indicates that approximately one-third of all violence perpetrated by CJNG between 2018 and 2022 was directly targeted at civilians. Specific incidents highlight this brutality, including the assassination of a mayor in the state of Guanajuato, known for his outspoken opposition to organized crime. Furthermore, there have been assassination attempts against a state prosecutor in Guadalajara and Mexico City’s police chief, demonstrating the cartel’s willingness to target high-profile officials.

Potential Consequences and Government Response

The death of Elmeno raises concerns about a potential escalation of violence. Experts anticipate that a power struggle will likely erupt within CJNG as surviving leaders compete for control of the organization. This internal conflict could be further exacerbated by attempts from rival cartels, such as the Sinaloa Cartel, to exploit the power vacuum and expand their own influence.

President Sheinbaum’s administration is not solely focused on eliminating cartel leaders. A government operation launched in November 2024 is actively targeting municipal leaders who are accused of assisting cartels in their criminal operations. This initiative has already resulted in over 60 arrests, including individuals affiliated with Sheinbaum’s own political party, demonstrating a commitment to dismantling the network of corruption that enables cartel activity.

Synthesis

The killing of Elmeno represents a significant, though potentially destabilizing, event in Mexico’s fight against organized crime. While it removes a key figure from the CJNG, it simultaneously creates a risk of increased violence and fragmentation. President Sheinbaum’s broader strategy, which includes targeting both cartel leadership and corrupt officials, suggests a comprehensive approach aimed at dismantling the systemic factors that allow these organizations to thrive. The long-term impact of these actions remains to be seen, but the current situation underscores the complex and evolving nature of the conflict between the Mexican government and powerful transnational criminal organizations.