Exclusive: Ian Bremmer on Iran conflictーNHK WORLD-JAPAN NEWS

Key Concepts

• Political Risk: The potential for political decisions or instability to impact global markets and international relations.
• Unipolar vs. Multipolar/Technopolar Order: The shift from a single dominant power (US) to a system with multiple economic centers and non-state actors (tech companies) acting as sovereigns.
• Strategic Leverage: The use of specific assets (e.g., the Strait of Hormuz) to gain bargaining power in negotiations.
• "America First" Policy: The Trump administration's approach to foreign policy, characterized by unilateralism and a focus on domestic interests.
• Regime Survival: The primary motivation for the Iranian government in its interactions with the US.

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1. The US-Iran Conflict and Negotiations

Ian Bremmer, president of Eurasia Group, argues that the recent breakdown in US-Iran peace talks is more performative than substantive.

• Substantive Progress: Despite official rhetoric, the 21-hour talks in Islamabad were productive. White House officials privately indicated that the Iranian side was more constructive than anticipated.
• Trump’s Strategy: Bremmer suggests that President Trump’s public declarations of a "blockade" and the collapse of talks are tactical maneuvers intended to project strength and a high tolerance for pain.
• The "Boy Who Cried Wolf" Effect: Bremmer warns that Trump’s inconsistent messaging—ranging from threats to "bring them back to the stone ages" to claims that the war will end in two weeks—undermines his credibility. He notes that Iranian leaders likely view Trump’s hyperbolic threats as empty, focusing instead on his public admission that the war is unpopular and economically damaging.

2. The Strategic Importance of the Strait of Hormuz

Bremmer identifies the Strait of Hormuz as a critical point of leverage for Iran.

• Negotiation Framework: He suggests that Iran should prioritize concessions on the nuclear front over the Strait. While nuclear enrichment is a global security concern, the Strait provides Iran with immediate economic and security leverage.
• Market Equilibrium: Bremmer predicts that if the conflict persists, the global market will eventually find an equilibrium by developing "infrastructure carveouts" and alternative routes, which will ultimately diminish the Strait’s status as a strategic "choke point" and reduce Iran’s pricing power.

3. The "Trump Risk" and Global Order

Bremmer maintains that the "political revolution" led by Trump remains the world's top risk.

• Driver of Instability: The US has transitioned from being the guarantor of global order to the primary driver of global political uncertainty.
• Overconfidence: Bremmer attributes Trump’s interventionist stance in the Middle East to an "overinflated sense of confidence" following perceived successes in Venezuela. He notes that Trump is surrounded by advisors who encourage this aggression, leaving him with full responsibility for the outcomes.
• Geopolitical Vacuum: The US’s unpredictable behavior is driving allies away and creating a vacuum that China is actively filling. Bremmer cites China’s increased spending on global institutions (like the WHO) and leadership in environmental summits as evidence of this shift.

4. Recommendations for Japan

Bremmer urges Japan to take a more proactive role in global governance to counter the decline of US influence:

• Institutional Leadership: Japan should increase its financial and diplomatic contributions to international organizations (e.g., the UN, WHO) to prevent China from monopolizing these spaces.
• Filling the Vacuum: He explicitly states that Japan should step up to host global summits and lead on international issues where the US has retreated.

5. The Future of Global Order

Bremmer categorizes the current global landscape into three distinct "orders":

• Economic (Multipolar): Power is shared among the US, China, and the European Union.
• Military (Unipolar): The US remains the dominant military force, though this is slowly eroding as China expands its nuclear and technological capabilities.
• Digital (Technopolar): A new environment where major technology companies act as "sovereigns" in the digital space, operating with power independent of traditional nation-states.

Synthesis and Conclusion

Bremmer concludes that while the current global environment is fraught with instability caused by the "Trump risk" and the erosion of traditional alliances, he remains optimistic. He argues that the current geopolitical friction is a test of human resilience. The main takeaway is that the world is moving toward a complex, fragmented order where traditional US hegemony is being replaced by a mix of multipolar economic competition and the rising influence of non-state technological actors. For allies like Japan, the path forward requires filling the leadership voids left by an increasingly isolationist and unpredictable United States.