Every major leap in human progress has this in common | Jason Crawford: Full Interview

Key Concepts

• Progress: The central theme, defined as the advancement of humanity, particularly in life, health, happiness, and wellbeing, driven by human choice and effort.
• Roots of Progress Institute: An organization dedicated to establishing a new philosophy of progress for the 21st century and fostering a culture of progress.
• Techno-Humanist Manifesto: A book by Jason Crawford exploring the relationship between technology and human flourishing.
• Philosophy of Progress: The historical and philosophical underpinnings of the idea of progress, its evolution, and its implications.
• Progress Studies: A field dedicated to understanding the drivers and dynamics of progress.
• Cyclical vs. Linear History: The historical perception of history as either cyclical (ups and downs) or linear (upward progress).
• Francis Bacon: A key figure in the history of progress, advocating for an empirical method in science and the possibility of surpassing ancient achievements.
• Novum Organum: Bacon's seminal work outlining his scientific method.
• Industrial Revolution: A period of significant technological and economic advancement, driven by new energy sources and manufacturing processes.
• Baconian Program: The pursuit of scientific discovery and invention, as envisioned by Francis Bacon.
• Technological Revolutions: Major shifts in technological capabilities that transform society.
• Information Technology (IT): A key area of recent progress, encompassing computers, software, and the internet.
• Atoms vs. Bits: A distinction between progress in physical technologies (atoms) and digital technologies (bits).
• Regulatory Apparatus: Government regulations that can impact the pace of progress.
• Scientific Research Funding: The impact of grant-seeking and funding mechanisms on scientific innovation.
• General Purpose Technology (GPT): Technologies that have the potential to transform multiple sectors of the economy.
• Fusion Energy: A potential future energy source with significant implications for progress.
• Genetic Engineering: Advancements in manipulating biological systems, such as mRNA vaccines and CRISPR.
• Space Economy: The development of economic activities in outer space.
• Non-rival Goods: Ideas and knowledge that can be shared by many without diminishing their value.

The Philosophy of Progress

The video argues that the progress of the last few centuries is the greatest achievement for humanity, enhancing life, health, happiness, and wellbeing. This progress, however, is not automatic or inevitable; it requires conscious choice, effort, and a belief in its possibility and desirability. Jason Crawford, founder of the Roots of Progress Institute, aims to establish a new philosophy of progress for the 21st century and cultivate a culture that supports it.

The discourse around progress has intensified, particularly with the advent of AI. Crawford, with a background in the tech industry, began writing about the history and philosophy of progress in 2017, gaining traction online and contributing to the galvanization of the "progress movement" following a 2019 article in The Atlantic that coined the term "progress studies."

Historically, the concept of progress as an upward trajectory was not prevalent. Most cultures viewed history cyclically or believed in a decline from a golden age. This perspective shifted in the West around the 15th-16th centuries.

Francis Bacon was a pivotal figure who argued for the possibility of progress and the ability of moderns to surpass the ancients. He highlighted discoveries unknown to the ancients, such as the Americas, gunpowder, the magnetic compass, silk, and the printing press. Bacon, in his work "Novum Organum" (The New Method), advocated for an empirical method in science, emphasizing systematic observation and explanation. He believed that by applying this method and dedicating effort, humanity could discover new things, invent new technologies, and endow human life with new abilities and powers. His vision, though taking 200 years to fully materialize with the Industrial Revolution, inspired generations and is considered a precursor to the "Baconian program" of science and invention.

The 17th and 18th centuries saw a gradual build-up of the idea of progress with scientific advancements like Newton's theories and developments in chemistry. By the 19th century, with the Industrial Revolution, inventions like the railroad, telegraph, telephone, and light bulb made progress a tangible reality transforming lives. This led to a period of great optimism in the late 19th and early 20th centuries, where industrial progress and technology were seen as an unstoppable force for good.

However, this optimism was challenged by counter-voices, such as Rousseau in the 1750s, who questioned the link between societal progress and advancements in arts and sciences. The naive belief that scientific and technological progress would automatically lead to social and moral progress, and even world peace, was shattered by the World Wars of the 20th century. The destructive power of new technologies like machine guns, chemical weapons, and the atomic bomb, along with events like the Great Depression and the rise of totalitarianism, led to widespread skepticism and fear regarding progress. Environmental concerns and safety hazards of technology also contributed to this doubt. By the 1930s, historians like Carl Becker questioned the very idea of progress.

The video argues that while the costs and risks of progress are real and require careful management, progress itself is not inherently bad. Denying progress or claiming it's always good is a mistake. Instead, acknowledging and addressing the costs and risks is crucial for creating a better world. The late 20th century saw a strong backlash against progress, with some advocating for slowing down or even reversing technological advancement.

The speaker defines progress as the idea that advancements in science, technology, and industry ultimately support social, moral, and human progress, leading to overall wellbeing. While deeply believing in the positive impact of these advancements, the speaker emphasizes that they are not ends in themselves. Progress extends beyond material needs to encompass spiritual values like excitement, adventure, knowledge, romance, curiosity, and self-fulfillment. Material progress, by providing wealth and leisure, enables the pursuit of these higher values, allowing time for education, art, philosophy, and meaningful connections. Technology, in this sense, helps humans become "more human." Skepticism towards progress often stems from a disbelief in this link between material and human advancement.

The Technologies of Progress

Technological development is categorized into six broad areas: agriculture, manufacturing (including materials and construction), energy, transportation, information, and medicine/health.

• Agriculture: Historically, agriculture consumed a vast portion of the workforce (50-75%) with low productivity, leading to frequent famines. Today, a small percentage of the population (single digits) produces abundant and varied food, with famine largely eliminated in many parts of the world.
• Energy: For millennia, human civilization relied on limited sources like wind, water, and muscle power, which were geographically constrained, intermittent, and difficult to scale. The steam engine, a quintessential invention of the Industrial Revolution, revolutionized this by converting fuel into motion, allowing for transportable, storable, and scalable energy. This broke the boundaries of time and space, enabling 24/7 power and massive industrial output. Energy usage is directly correlated with GDP and economic wealth, powering everything from agriculture to manufacturing and transportation.
• Medicine/Health: Before the 19th century, medicine was rudimentary, and infectious diseases like smallpox were rampant, causing significant mortality. Even in the early 20th century, infectious diseases accounted for about half of deaths in the US. Maternal mortality was high (around 1% in the late 19th/early 20th century), and nearly half of children did not survive to adulthood. Modern medicine has drastically reduced these figures, leading to increased life expectancy and a significant transformation of human life.
• Transportation: For thousands of years, transportation speeds remained largely unchanged, with figures like George Washington traveling at similar speeds to Alexander the Great. Overland travel was slow, and water travel was limited to waterways. The 1800s saw a fundamental transformation with the advent of the steamboat and especially the locomotive, which offered unprecedented speed, reliability, and cargo capacity, revolutionizing society.
• Information/Communication: Prior to the 1800s, communication was limited by transportation speeds. The mid-1800s marked a turning point with the telegram, followed by the telephone, radio, and television. These electronic communication technologies disconnected information from physical transport, allowing for near-instantaneous transmission of data.
• Manufacturing: Before the Industrial Revolution, most products were made by hand. Mass production in factories, enabled by machine tools that allowed for precision manufacturing and interchangeable parts, dramatically increased productivity, leading to cheaper goods and higher wages. Henry Ford's assembly line, which relied on precisely manufactured parts that did not require filing, exemplifies this. The organization of factories and the development of mass production systems were crucial. This also necessitated larger markets, effective postal services, and robust transportation networks to distribute goods.

The Accelerating Pace of Progress

The long-term pattern of progress is one of acceleration, not constant growth. This acceleration is driven by feedback loops, where progress in one area enables further progress in others. New manufacturing technologies allow for the creation of better machines; communication technologies facilitate the faster spread of ideas; larger markets enable greater investment in R&D; and accumulated wealth can be reinvested in innovation.

Even world population growth has contributed to progress, as more people mean more minds working on problems, leading to greater specialization and expertise. The non-rival nature of ideas, as described by economist Paul Romer, means that once discovered, they can be shared globally without diminishing their value, creating a virtuous cycle of innovation and growth. This cycle of progress, belief in progress, investment, and further progress was accelerating until the 20th century.

The Future of Progress

The speaker posits a temporary slowdown in scientific, technological, and economic progress over the last 50 years, particularly in areas like manufacturing, construction, transportation, and energy, where fundamental technologies from the 1960s and 1970s are still largely in use. While information technology has seen continuous advancement, the pace of breakthroughs in other sectors has not matched the revolutionary period between 1870 and 1920, which saw revolutions in electrical power, the internal combustion engine, communications, applied chemistry, and public health.

Several factors are identified as contributing to this slowdown:

1. Overreach of the Regulatory Apparatus: While regulations are necessary to address the costs and risks of progress, excessive permitting and bureaucratic hurdles have made it difficult to build infrastructure, housing, and even clean energy projects.
2. Organization of Scientific Research: The current grant-seeking process and funding mechanisms may encourage scientists to pursue more conservative projects, hindering bold, risk-taking endeavors.
3. Loss of Confidence and Ambition: A decline in civilizational confidence, ambition, and enthusiasm for progress can demotivate talent and resources, particularly among younger generations.

Despite this slowdown, the speaker expresses hope for the future, citing several reasons:

• Frontier Technologies: Exciting advancements are occurring in areas like fusion energy, artificial intelligence (AI), and genetic engineering (mRNA vaccines, CRISPR).
• New Generation of Founders: A new wave of entrepreneurs in Silicon Valley and beyond are exhibiting immense ambition, focusing on "atoms and cells and joules" in fields like energy, manufacturing, and longevity, rather than solely on software. Figures like Elon Musk inspire grand, planet-scale ambitions.
• Intellectual and Ideological Shift: A growing "new progress movement" recognizes the mistake of discarding progress due to concerns about its risks. There is a renewed belief that humanity has not reached its peak and that further progress is possible and desirable.

The speaker anticipates future growth rates to accelerate, especially with the advent of AI. The ultimate goal is for the future to be as well-off relative to the present as the present is compared to the past. The speaker emphasizes that what seems normal today (e.g., not having a refrigerator) would be considered inhumane in the future. As long as there are unmet needs—financial struggles, diseases, geographical separation, or inadequate education—there is potential for further progress.

Emerging technologies like AI, genetic engineering, fusion energy, and space exploration, once realized, will become essential, even if they currently seem like science fiction. The speaker concludes by stating that humanity is hungry for a philosophy that affirms the immense benefits of technology, science, industry, and economic growth, provided they are pursued thoughtfully and carefully. This can lead to a new age of humanity, ultimately reaching for the stars.