Evercore ISI founder Roger Altman: Firing of BLS commissioner 'quite disturbing'

Key Concepts:

• Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Commissioner firing
• Data manipulation accusations
• Economic slowdown
• Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A)
• Business confidence
• Tariffs and economic impact
• Uncertainty and its effect on the economy

1. BLS Commissioner Firing and Data Integrity

• Roger Altman finds the firing of the BLS commissioner "quite disturbing."
• He argues that the accusation of the commissioner manipulating data for political reasons is "nonsense" and "essentially impossible" due to the involvement of hundreds of federal employees in data collection.
• Altman equates the action of "shooting the messenger" to the behavior of "banana republics," not the United States.
• He suggests that if President Trump had raised concerns about outdated data collection methods or lack of transparency, it would have been a fairer point.
• Altman emphasizes that markets generally believe the data, as evidenced by the ten-year yield and oil prices.
• He mentions that financial services organizations like JP Morgan, Bridgewater, and Evercore ISI compile their own data through proprietary surveys (e.g., trucking, airline, temporary employment agencies) to assess the economy independently.
• Altman served in government for 6-7 years in the Treasury, where he never heard any noise about manipulating the data or trying to cook the books.

2. Future Data from BLS

• The discussion raises concerns about the reliability of future data from the BLS with a Trump appointee in charge.
• The interviewers express concern about the potential replacement of other staff members as well.
• Altman states that "we'll have to wait and see" regarding the reliability of future data.

3. M&A Trends

• M&A conditions are improving, but not yet back to the "heyday of 2021."
• Most measures of volume for 2025 so far are up versus 2024.
• M&A activity is closely tied to business confidence, the direction of financial markets, and the perceived health of the economy.

4. Economic Slowdown and Uncertainty

• Altman highlights the impact of uncertainty on the economy, particularly due to factors like tariffs, discussions about firing Chairman Powell, and concerns about economic data.
• He argues that uncertainty causes consumers and businesses to hesitate.
• The consensus forecast for 2025 growth has been revised downward from 2-2.5% to 1-1.5%.
• The economy grew a little over 1% in the first half of 2025, well below the initial consensus.
• Altman points out that imposing an 18% average tariff on all imported US goods would undoubtedly have a negative economic effect.

5. Synthesis/Conclusion

The interview focuses on concerns about the integrity of economic data following the BLS commissioner's firing, the improving but not booming M&A market, and the overall economic slowdown driven by uncertainty. Altman emphasizes that while improvements to data collection methods are welcome, accusations of political manipulation are unfounded and damaging. He also highlights the impact of tariffs and other uncertainties on business and consumer confidence, leading to a downward revision of economic growth forecasts.