Europe sidelined in US-Russia peace plan for Ukraine • FRANCE 24 English

Key Concepts

• 28-point proposal
• Territorial concessions
• Military disarmament
• Official language status
• European Union (EU) involvement
• US security guarantees
• Nobel Peace Prize
• Referendum
• Arms embargo/transfer scheme

Diplomatic Developments and European Reaction

The transcript details a significant diplomatic development where the United States and Russia are reportedly working on a 28-point proposal to settle the war in Ukraine. This proposal allegedly requires Kyiv to cede territory and substantially reduce its army and weapons stockpiles.

• European Blindsided: European allies of Ukraine expressed feeling blindsided by these reported US-Russia efforts.
• EU's Stance: The EU's foreign policy chief, alongside the French, German, and Spanish foreign ministers, issued a warning that the bloc must be involved in any negotiations and agree to any conclusions for a lasting peace.
• Hungary's Divergent View: Hungary, through its foreign minister, broke with the consensus, warning that "time is simply not on Kyiv's side."

Details of the Alleged 28-Point Proposal

According to the report, the 28-point proposal includes several severe concessions for Ukraine:

• Territorial Cession: Ukraine would have to seed territory in the Donbass region, potentially more than Russia currently controls.
• Military Disarmament: Ukraine would be forced to disarm to half its current strength.
• Official Language: Russian would be adopted as an official language.

European Concerns and Implications

Brussels correspondent Dave Keading highlights significant alarm in Europe regarding this potential proposal.

• Lack of Communication: European officials stated they were "completely out of the loop" and had received "no communication" about this plan.
• "Complete Surrender": EU's foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell (though the transcript incorrectly attributes the quote to Kaya Kalis), described the plan as a "complete surrender" that Ukraine would be forced to sign.
• Implications for US Security Guarantees: A key concern is what this would imply for US security guarantees for Europe. If the US is perceived as willing to "completely sell out Ukraine," it could lead Moscow to assume the US would also "completely sell out the rest of Europe."
• Uncertainty of Information: European officials are unsure how seriously to take these reports, questioning the source of the information, particularly if it originates from the Russian side.

Analysis of the Proposal's Viability and Motivations

The discussion delves into why such a proposal might be emerging and its likelihood of success.

• Lack of European Support: No one in Brussels believes this plan will lead to a peace settlement because it lacks Ukrainian and European buy-in.
• US Pressure and Trump's Promises: The report suggests that President Trump, having promised to end the war in 24 hours, feels pressure to achieve this outcome. Advisors like Steve Bannon might be presenting a "complete surrender" scenario as an attractive option to fulfill this promise and potentially earn a Nobel Peace Prize.
• Ukraine's Rejection: Ukraine's President Zelenskyy has stated that any peace deal would be put to a referendum, and this proposed deal would "not be approved by a referendum."
• Diminished US Leverage: The US is seen as having less leverage now due to a new scheme where European countries purchase American weapons and then transfer them to Ukraine, rather than direct US arms shipments. This "Pure" scheme (likely referring to a European-led procurement initiative) means Trump "doesn't even really have the leverage to force this on Ukraine."

Potential Russian Strategy and European Resistance

The current European attitude is one of observation, but with a clear warning.

• Testing the Waters: Europe suspects this might be Russia "putting this out there trying to test the ground."
• Fierce Resistance: However, if the Trump administration shows willingness to push this idea, "you are going to see fierce fierce resistance to that from European capitals."

Synthesis/Conclusion

The transcript reveals deep concern and skepticism from European capitals regarding a reported US-Russia 28-point peace proposal for Ukraine. The proposal, which allegedly demands significant territorial concessions, military disarmament, and the adoption of Russian as an official language by Ukraine, has not been communicated to European allies, leaving them feeling blindsided and excluded. European leaders emphasize that any lasting peace must involve Ukraine and the EU. The potential implications for US security commitments to Europe are a major worry. While the proposal's viability is questioned due to Ukraine's likely rejection and the US's diminished leverage, European nations are prepared to mount "fierce resistance" if the US administration appears to endorse or push such terms, viewing it as a potential Russian ploy to test the waters.