Key Concepts
- Collapse of transatlantic consensus on Ukraine policy
- Security guarantees for Ukraine (Article 5 type)
- Territorial concessions by Ukraine (Donbas)
- Ceasefire and freezing the front line
- Russian long-term ambitions regarding Ukraine
Analysis of the Perilous Moment
Carl Bildt describes the current situation as "fairly perilous," emphasizing the alarm in Europe following President Trump's meeting with President Putin in Alaska. This meeting effectively led to the "de facto collapse" of the transatlantic consensus on Ukraine. The agreed-upon policies to press for a ceasefire and impose measures against Russia if it refused were seemingly abandoned by Trump. The visit of President Zelenskyy to the White House, supported by European leaders, is an attempt to "shore things up" and prevent a repeat of what Bildt considers the previous "catastrophic performance" in Alaska. The unprecedented gathering of European leaders underscores the gravity of the situation.
Trump's Meeting with Putin: What Went Wrong
Bildt suggests that "everything seems to have gone fairly wrong" during the Trump-Putin meeting. Prior to the summit, there was a consensus among European leaders and Trump to pressure Putin into a ceasefire, with the understanding that measures would be taken if he refused. However, after the meeting, a ceasefire was not even mentioned. Instead, Trump appeared to align with Putin's approach of allowing the war to continue until Zelenskyy agrees to his terms.
Security Guarantees for Ukraine
The discussion shifts to the possibility of security guarantees for Ukraine. Bildt states that the nature of these guarantees is "going to be up to President Zelenskyy to decide," but they need to be "fairly solid." There are indications from Washington that an "Article 5 type security guarantee" is being considered, which would be equivalent to the NATO trigger (an attack on one is an attack on all). However, Bildt expresses doubt about whether the US Senate would support such a guarantee without the full NATO structure. He also cautions against misinterpreting Russian offers of security guarantees, calling a "Russian security guarantee for Ukraine... a joke."
Bildt suggests that a reliable security guarantee would likely require a "firm commitment" from the United States, potentially involving troops on the ground and air support.
Territorial Concessions and the Donbas Region
The conversation addresses the possibility of Ukraine yielding territory in the eastern part of Ukraine (Donbas). Bildt argues that this idea is unlikely to be accepted by Ukraine. He emphasizes that the territory in question is heavily fortified and has been defended fiercely by Ukrainian forces for the past 30 months. Giving up this territory and their forward defense positions is "unthinkable" for the Ukrainians.
Bildt contrasts this with the previous European position, which was to "freeze the front line" and pursue political talks, but without demanding territorial concessions as a precondition. He acknowledges that while he understands the Russian demand from their point of view, it is "not going to fly."
Consequences of Withdrawal
Bildt explains that if Ukraine were to withdraw from its current positions in Donbas, it would open up the country to "much easier Russian advance into the rest of Ukraine" due to the geography of the region. He emphasizes that the primary security guarantee for Ukraine will always be its own armed forces, along with continued efforts to modernize, train, and equip them.
Putin's Long-Term Ambitions
Bildt warns against any illusions about Putin's intentions, stating that he has "a long-term ambition when it comes to conquering Ukraine." He emphasizes that this is not a short-term goal but rather a long-term objective for the duration of Putin's mandate.
Potential for European Troops on the Ground
When asked about the possibility of European troops on the ground in Ukraine, Bildt states that he doesn't think it will happen "in the near future." He emphasizes the need to achieve a ceasefire first, which he believes is unlikely without American pressure on Putin and increased support for Ukraine. If a ceasefire is achieved, then the possibility of European troops on the ground could conceivably arise.
Conclusion
Carl Bildt paints a concerning picture of the current situation surrounding Ukraine, highlighting the breakdown of transatlantic unity, the potential for inadequate security guarantees, and the unlikelihood of Ukraine accepting territorial concessions. He underscores the importance of a strong Ukrainian military and warns against underestimating Putin's long-term goals. The key takeaway is that the situation remains highly volatile and requires a unified and firm response from the West to ensure Ukraine's security and sovereignty.
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