Europe overtakes US intelligence support for Kyiv & Trump ‘gifted’ a Nobel Peace Prize

Key Concepts

• The military situation in Ukraine remains largely static, with Russia focusing on the Zaporizhzhia Oblast, despite Ukrainian defenses holding.
• The UK continues to provide significant aid to Ukraine, including financial support for energy infrastructure and a school twinning program.
• Diplomatic efforts to negotiate with Russia are underway, with differing opinions on the feasibility of genuine peace talks.
• Russian attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure are ongoing, prompting the use of “invincibility points” for humanitarian aid.
• Resistance activity in occupied territories is evolving towards more covert and violent methods, requiring updated Western support strategies.
• Investigations reveal concerning past activities of Eddie Dempsey, General Secretary of the RMT union, involving pro-Russian groups in occupied Donbass.
• China’s proposed mega-embassy in London raises national security concerns due to its proximity to critical fiber optic communication cables.

Military Situation & Aid (January 16, 2024)

As of January 16, 2024 (3 years and 328 days into the full-scale invasion), the frontline in Ukraine remains largely static, with Russia prioritizing the Zaporizhzhia Oblast. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) data indicates Ukrainian defenses are holding, despite Russian claims of gains. Russia currently controls 19.32% of Ukrainian territory, having occupied an additional 1.5% over the past three years. Yesterday, the Ukrainian General Staff reported 1,370 Russian casualties (killed, wounded, missing, prisoner). Geolocated footage confirms Ukrainian advances north of Kupiansk, contradicting Russian claims. The UK has announced a further £20 million in energy infrastructure support, marking the first year of a 100-year strategic partnership, and will twin 300 additional schools with Ukrainian schools over the next three years, benefiting 54,000 pupils.

Diplomatic & Energy Developments

French President Macron claims France now provides two-thirds of the strategic military intelligence supplied to Ukraine. Macron and Italian Prime Minister Meloni have suggested initiating talks with Vladimir Putin, a position opposed by UK Foreign Secretary Cooper, who doubts Putin’s genuine desire for peace. German Chancellor Scholz expressed hope for rebalancing EU-Moscow ties, a statement interpreted by Russia as openness to dialogue. Since October 2023, Russian forces have targeted 11 hydroelectric power plants, 45 combined heat and power plants, 49 thermal power plants, and 151 electrical substations, leading Ukraine to loosen curfew restrictions to allow access to “invincibility points.”

Resistance in Occupied Territories

Dr. Jay McGlin’s report for the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) details a shift in resistance activity towards more covert, private, and violent methods, including intelligence gathering for Ukrainian strikes. The occupation regime is described as bureaucratized and securitized, aiming for permanent integration and militarization. Recent activities include vehicle arson, IED attacks, sabotage of fuel depots and railway infrastructure, and targeted attacks on collaborators. The report criticizes outdated Western guidance on resistance and calls for increased support for decentralized structures and civilian protection. 42 confirmed resistance operations occurred between December 4th and January 5th.

Investigations: Eddie Dempsey & China’s Embassy

Gareth Corfield of The Telegraph conducted two investigations. The first details Eddie Dempsey’s 2015 visit to Alchevk in occupied Donbass, where he participated in a communist propaganda event organized by the Prisk Brigade (Ghost Brigade), a pro-Russian militia, and waved the communist flag while chanting slogans like “Donbass the tomb of fascism.” He was also photographed wearing a t-shirt displaying the coat of arms of Novorossiya, a Russian imperial project. Dempsey subsequently wrote articles for the Morning Star praising his observations. The RMT defended Dempsey, stating his motivations were anti-fascist.

The second investigation concerns China’s proposed mega-embassy in London, purchased for £255 million in 2018. Unredacted drawings reveal a 208-room basement complex with a 40-meter wall adjacent to Manel Street, beneath which run critical fiber optic communication cables owned by BT Open Reach, Colt Technologies, and Verizon Business, connecting London’s financial districts to the wider internet and the US. Concerns exist that the embassy’s proximity to these cables poses a national security threat, potentially allowing for disruption or interception of sensitive financial and economic information. A protest is scheduled, and building permission is expected to be granted coinciding with Prime Minister Sunak’s visit to Beijing.

Other Developments

Germany denied entry to its territorial waters to the Tavian, a “zombie tanker” suspected of being linked to Russia’s shadow fleet. The US gifted a Nobel Peace Prize to Donald Trump, potentially as leverage for Venezuela negotiations. The UK is establishing a new business center in Kyiv to support UK defense companies accessing the Ukrainian market and has provided approximately £4.5 billion in defense and weapons support to Ukraine in the past year. Ukraine: The Latest is available in Ukrainian and Russian translations, with a weekly newsletter and engagement through X Spaces, email (ukrainepod@telegraph.co.uk), and social media.

Conclusion

The situation in Ukraine remains complex, characterized by a static frontline, ongoing Russian aggression, and evolving resistance. The UK continues to be a key ally, providing substantial aid and advocating for Ukraine’s long-term security. However, investigations into potential security risks – both regarding individuals with ties to pro-Russian groups and the infrastructure of foreign embassies – highlight the need for continued vigilance and robust security measures. The diplomatic landscape remains uncertain, with differing views on the possibility of meaningful negotiations with Russia.