Europe falls behind in a strategic trade route | DW News

Key Concepts

• Strategic New Frontiers: China's designation for critical areas like the Arctic, outer space, cyberspace, and the deep sea, deemed vital for its geopolitical competition and global power ambitions.
• Dual Use: The characteristic of activities or technologies that have both civilian and military applications, a key feature of China's approach in strategic new frontiers.
• Access Denial: The potential for nations to restrict or control access to strategic areas, particularly relevant to Arctic shipping routes.
• Geopolitical Competition: The rivalry between nations for influence, resources, and strategic advantage, with the Arctic and space being identified as key arenas.
• Near Arctic State: China's self-proclaimed status, despite not being an Arctic nation, highlighting its interest and ambitions in the region.

Arctic Accessibility and Timeline

The Arctic is currently largely inaccessible to shipping for most of the year, with navigation possible only seasonally for about three to four months during the summer (July to October/November). Even during this period, the Northern Sea Route (NSR), which runs along Russia's coast, is complex due to ice, darkness, fog, rapid weather changes, and a lack of infrastructure. Icebreakers are still required, and Russia levies transit fees for passage through its territorial waters or exclusive economic zone.

Currently, trade volume through the NSR is minimal. Russia reported approximately 90 ships used the route last year, a stark contrast to the 13,000 ships that transited the Suez Canal.

Climate change is accelerating the melting of ice caps, leading to longer periods of accessibility. Some studies suggest the NSR could be ice-free during summers as early as the 2030s.

Once ice-free, the NSR will be open year-round. However, Russia's requirement for transit fees will remain, introducing regulatory and political, rather than physical, restrictions on access.

Economic Value of Arctic Routes for China

The Northern Sea Route offers significant economic advantages for nations like China:

• Reduced Travel Time: It shortens travel time between Europe and Asia by approximately 15 days compared to the Suez Canal, and even longer than routes around the Horn of Africa.
• Lower Fuel Costs: The reduced travel distance translates to decreased fuel consumption.
• Alternative Trade Routes: The NSR provides China with alternative pathways, allowing it to bypass critical chokepoints such as the Strait of Malacca and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait in the Red Sea, which are of concern to Beijing.

These economic benefits are a primary driver for China's keen interest in exploring and developing the NSR. This has led to a joint initiative between China and Russia to develop the route and enhance its accessibility.

China's Arctic Ambitions and Progress

China's ambitions in the Arctic are characterized by well-defined strategic objectives. The Arctic, along with Antarctica, is considered a "strategic new frontier" in China's strategic thinking, crucial for its geopolitical competition with the United States and the West, and its broader goal of becoming a global power by 2049. China recognized the Arctic's importance earlier than many European nations.

China's actions reflect this strategic outlook:

• Increased Icebreaker Fleet: Since 2019, China has acquired three new icebreakers.
• Research Stations: It has established research stations in Iceland and the Norwegian archipelago of Svalbard.
• Joint Military Exercises: The Chinese Coast Guard entered Arctic waters for the first time in October 2024, participating alongside Russian forces.

Dual Civil-Military Use in China's Arctic Activities

China's activities in the Arctic are often presented as collaborative and focused on scientific advancement. However, there is a clear dual-use nature to these endeavors, reflecting the securitization of the Arctic in China's strategic thinking.

• Satellite Ground Stations: Stations in the Arctic not only support scientific satellites but also aid in intelligence collection and enhance the accuracy of China's BeiDou global positioning system, which has implications for missile targeting.
• Scientific Expeditions: Arctic research expeditions conduct scientific studies, but also acoustic modeling and oceanographic surveys that are vital for the operational effectiveness of the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) submarines in the region.
• Military Capability Testing: Chinese ships and research expeditions have been observed testing military capabilities, such as unmanned underwater vehicles, in the Arctic.

This demonstrates a strong linkage between China's civilian activities and its military objectives in the region.

Europe's Interests and Position in the Arctic

Europe's interests in the Arctic are multifaceted, encompassing economic, governance, and security spheres.

• Economic Competition: China's growing footprint presents increased competition for resources, trade routes, and new economic opportunities in the Arctic, potentially impacting Europe's economic growth, future prosperity, and energy security.
• Resource Access: The Arctic holds significant deposits of rare earth elements, oil, and gas, which Europe had hoped to explore.
• Governance and Rule-Shaping: A key objective for China in the Arctic is to shape the rules governing the region. Beijing aims to do this in ways that may conflict with European priorities and values, potentially by prioritizing national interests and sovereignty over universally binding rules.
• Security Concerns: A greater Chinese military or dual-use presence near Europe's borders raises security concerns. This is particularly relevant given that many Arctic countries are EU members. It necessitates constant monitoring, resource allocation, and vigilance against potential espionage or disruptions to undersea cables and trade routes.
• Cooperation with Russia: China's increasing cooperation with Russia in the Arctic exacerbates these concerns for Europe.

Europe is currently behind in addressing these challenges. The Arctic is only recently being recognized as a critical domain for Europe's geopolitical standing, economic prosperity, and security.

Space as Another Strategic Frontier

Space is another "strategic new frontier" identified by China, alongside the Arctic, cyberspace, and the deep sea. While China's approach may vary across these domains, the core characteristics and the impact of its growing ambitions on Europe remain consistent.

• Geopolitical Competition: China's activities in space, like in the Arctic, are driven by geopolitical competition and its ambition to become a global power.
• Securitization: Space is increasingly viewed as a securitized domain.
• Dual Use Implications: China's space activities often have dual-use implications.
• Increasing Cooperation with Russia: Cooperation between China and Russia in space is rapidly expanding.

Europe needs to pay close attention to developments in space.

Shift in China's Partnerships: From Europe to Russia

Historically, Europe was China's preferred partner in both the Arctic and space. However, this has shifted, with Russia now becoming China's primary partner.

• Past European Engagement: For many years, Europe did not fully appreciate the geopolitical significance of the Arctic and outer space, nor the implications of its cooperation with China. This led to significant technology transfers from Europe to China and European support for China's ambitions in these domains.
  • Galileo Program: China was an early member and contributor to Europe's Galileo satellite navigation system.
  • Arctic Ground Stations: China established its Arctic ground stations on European territory.
• Recent Shift in European Perspective: Europe's views on China and its willingness to cooperate, especially in sensitive areas, have dramatically decreased. Many joint projects have been frozen or canceled.
• China's Turn to Russia: With the decline in European engagement, China is now turning to Russia to bridge its capability gaps and geographical access limitations. China, not being an Arctic country, relies on Russia for direct access.

Europe's Dependence on the US and the Need for Self-Reliance

Europe's capabilities in strategic domains like the Arctic and outer space have often depended on the United States. The current uncertainty and fraying of the US-Europe relationship present a critical challenge for Europe.

• Ideal Cooperation with the US: Cooperation with the US would be ideal for Europe to counter China's activities and defend its own interests and security.
• Increasing Difficulty of US Cooperation: Cooperation with the US on these issues is becoming increasingly difficult.
• Need for European Self-Reliance: Europe must find ways to act independently, invest more in its own capabilities, and identify alternative partners.
• Potential Alternative Partners: Europe can engage more with like-minded countries that share similar interests in the Arctic and space.

Conclusion

The Arctic and outer space are no longer just global commons but arenas of intense geopolitical competition. China, with its well-defined "strategic new frontiers" concept, is actively expanding its footprint and capabilities in these domains, often through dual-use activities and increasing cooperation with Russia. Europe, having underestimated the strategic importance of these areas and unwittingly contributed to China's ambitions in the past, is now behind. The shifting geopolitical landscape, particularly the strained relationship with the US, necessitates that Europe invest in its own capabilities and forge new partnerships to secure its interests and maintain its geopolitical standing.