EU-UK relations 10 years after the referendum: Brexit or Regrexit? • FRANCE 24 English

Key Concepts

• Brexit: The UK's withdrawal from the European Union, marking a decade since the referendum.
• Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA): The primary legal framework governing the post-Brexit relationship between the EU and the UK.
• Windsor Framework: A set of agreements designed to resolve issues regarding the Northern Ireland Protocol.
• Differential Integration: A model where countries participate in specific EU programs or frameworks without full membership.
• Divergence: The natural process where two political and economic entities drift apart in standards, regulations, and policies over time.
• The 3 Million: A civil society group representing EU citizens in the UK and UK citizens in the EU, advocating for the protection of their rights.

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1. The State of EU-UK Relations

The discussion highlights that while the UK government frequently calls for a "reset" in relations, EU officials perceive this as lacking substance without a clear, long-term vision.

• Current Status: The relationship is currently defined by the implementation of existing deals (TCA, Windsor Framework).
• Key Initiatives: The EU has allowed the UK to rejoin specific programs, such as Horizon (research and science) and Erasmus+ (education/mobility), and has established a security partnership for information exchange.
• Future Outlook: MEPs Mika Aaltola and Sandro Gozi argue that the "reset" is limited by the UK’s "red lines"—specifically the refusal to rejoin the Single Market, the Customs Union, or accept the freedom of movement.

2. Strategic Challenges and "Divergence"

A central argument presented is that the UK and EU are suffering from "automatic divergence."

• The "Forest vs. Trees" Problem: Aaltola notes that UK politics remains stuck on internal, short-term issues ("stumbling over trees") rather than developing a strategic vision for the future.
• Defense as a Common Ground: Both MEPs suggest that defense and security are the most viable areas for cooperation, as both entities are "like-minded" and share interests regarding the conflict in Ukraine.
• Leadership Vacuum: Aaltola identifies a lack of strong political leadership in both European capitals and London as a primary obstacle to moving beyond bureaucratic bickering toward a more meaningful partnership.

3. The Human Dimension and Citizens' Rights

The discussion addressed the "human cost" of Brexit, specifically regarding the rights of citizens living abroad.

• Implementation Issues: Despite the Withdrawal Agreement, civil society groups like "The 3 Million" have reported breaches, including loss of access to housing, employment difficulties, and family separations.
• Enforcement: Sandro Gozi emphasized that the European Parliament is actively pressuring the European Commission to monitor member states and the UK government to ensure these rights are upheld. He noted that "even one right violated is one violation too many."

4. Political Dynamics and Public Opinion

The speakers analyzed the disconnect between public sentiment and political action in the UK.

• Public Opinion: Data from YouGov (May) indicates that 56% of Britons support rejoining the EU, and 70% favor a closer relationship with the Single Market and Customs Union.
• The "Mr. Disaster" Argument: Sandro Gozi argued that mainstream UK political parties have failed to hold figures like Nigel Farage accountable for the unfulfilled promises of the Brexit campaign (e.g., the £350 million/week for the NHS, lower illegal migration, and job growth). Gozi asserts that until these figures are challenged on their record, populist influence will continue to grow.

5. Notable Quotes

• Mika Aaltola: "In the UK, they are always stumbling over the trees, and the same happens here. So little by little, there's divergence... it's a manic talk and it lacks substance if there's no vision."
• Sandro Gozi: "It is clear that this is a major historical political mistake that won't go away until the consequences have been tackled."
• Sandro Gozi: "We won't negotiate with Farage. We negotiated with someone much more reasonable."

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Synthesis and Conclusion

The consensus among the MEPs is that while the EU remains open to a constructive relationship, the burden of proof lies with the UK to move beyond internal political infighting. The current framework is limited by the UK's refusal to rejoin core EU structures, leading to a slow but steady "divergence." The speakers conclude that without a bold, long-term vision from British leadership and a willingness to address the economic and social consequences of Brexit, the relationship will remain stuck in a cycle of bureaucratic maintenance rather than strategic partnership.