EU pushes back after Trump unveils Ukraine plan: Analysis with Belgian deputy Prime minister Prévot

Key Concepts

• Trump's Ukraine Peace Plan: A US-proposed 28-point plan to end the war in Ukraine, perceived by Kiev and Brussels as heavily favoring the Kremlin.
• EU's Reactive Stance: The EU's tendency to respond to US initiatives rather than proactively leading diplomatic efforts.
• Frozen Russian Assets: Approximately €193 billion in Russian assets held in Euroclear (Belgium), frozen since the start of the war in 2022.
• Loan vs. Confiscation: The debate between channeling profits from frozen assets into a loan for Ukraine versus outright confiscation of sovereign assets.
• Coalition of the Willing vs. Coalition of the Billing: The need for both military support and financial commitment from European nations.
• Belgian Budgetary Situation: Belgium's projected budget deficit of 5.5% of GDP and its reform efforts to improve its fiscal standing.
• EU-Africa Relations: The EU's aim to build a new partnership with Africa based on mutual interest and avoiding exploitative practices, particularly concerning critical minerals.
• EU's Role in African Conflicts: The necessity for the EU to be more involved in resolving conflicts in Africa to uphold international law and human rights, and to maintain its credibility.
• EU Unanimity on Foreign Policy: The challenge of achieving consensus among 27 member states on foreign policy issues, as seen in the Gaza situation.

Summary

EU's Reactive Diplomacy and the Ukraine War

The European Union (EU) has been consistently reacting to diplomatic maneuvers by Donald Trump, particularly concerning the war in Ukraine. This reactive approach was evident when the US and Russia reached an understanding in Alaska without European or Ukrainian involvement. Despite subsequent efforts by some EU leaders to steer Trump towards a more Ukraine-friendly stance, this proved temporary. On November 21st, the US presented a 28-point plan to end the war, which was viewed in Kiev and Brussels as significantly advantageous to the Kremlin. While the plan's specifics have since been revised, the core issue of the EU's position in these negotiations remains a concern.

Maxim Preu, the Foreign Minister and Deputy Prime Minister of Belgium, highlighted this issue, stating, "Frankly speaking, it was already the case unfortunately with the Gaza situation and once again we are still reacting at the US initiative instead of taking the lead for finding a solution for just and lasting peace in Ukraine." He further elaborated on the perceived imbalance, "We have the impression that the US choose the restaurant the menu but the bill has been paid by by the European." Belgium, while commending the US initiative for a ceasefire and peace process, emphasizes the crucial need for both Ukraine and the EU to be active participants at the negotiation table, not merely observers.

Security Guarantees and Financial Support for Ukraine

The discussion also touched upon the concept of security guarantees for Ukraine, noting that European reassurance forces were not initially mentioned in the Trump plan. Belgium has previously expressed readiness to participate in a "coalition of the willing" to provide military support, including potential contributions of jet fighters or demining expertise, to ensure the safety of the Ukrainian people. However, a key challenge remains the swift provision of financial support to Ukraine.

Belgium, through its securities depository Euroclear, holds a significant portion of frozen Russian assets, estimated at €193 billion. The EU Commission has urged Belgium to channel profits from these assets into a loan for Ukraine, especially in light of recent US actions. Belgium's response, as articulated by Minister Preu, favors a "classical European loan" guaranteed by the European Commission, rather than outright confiscation of sovereign Russian assets. Preu argued that confiscation based solely on a political decision, without judicial backing, sets a dangerous precedent with significant legal, financial, and systemic risks for Europe, potentially impacting the euro. He stressed the need for an alternative approach, stating, "We do not only need a coalition of the willing. We definitely need also a coalition of the billing." The preferred Belgian approach is to keep the assets frozen and utilize traditional loan mechanisms for financial aid.

Belgium's Budgetary Reforms

The conversation shifted to Belgium's own economic situation, acknowledging its projected budget deficit of 5.5% of GDP for the upcoming year. Minister Preu admitted to a "too high deficit," but noted that the internal debt is less concerning. The current government has implemented reforms and "unpopular decisions" to improve the budgetary situation, including approximately €32 billion in reforms this year, aiming to become a "reliable partner in the Euro zone."

Rebuilding EU-Africa Relations

Minister Preu also shared insights from a recent EU-Africa summit in Angola. He referenced Antonio Costa, the EU Council President, who spoke about developing a new relationship with Africa based on mutual interest, moving away from the "exploitative logic" of the past. Preu acknowledged the challenge of securing critical minerals and materials for the EU's energy transition without exploiting local communities. Belgium, with its long-standing involvement in Africa, recognizes the continent's significant economic development and demographic growth. The focus is on rebuilding trust and confidence, fostering common solutions for climate change, prosperity, health, and security, and avoiding a "vampire" approach to resource extraction.

EU's Role in African Conflicts and Foreign Policy Credibility

The discussion highlighted the expectation for the EU to play a more active role in resolving conflicts in Africa, citing recent massacres in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Sudan. Preu asserted that the EU "must be more involved in in Africa not only for economic reasons but also as you mentioned also for being a constant defender on some key values related for instance to international law and human rights." He warned that a lack of EU engagement would allow the US to take the lead, leaving the EU in a secondary role. The credibility of the EU's foreign and security policy hinges on its ability to address these conflict zones and find humanitarian solutions. Preu emphasized the need to avoid repeating the challenges faced in the Gaza situation, where a lack of unanimity among the 27 member states hindered a strong EU position.

Conclusion

The interview with Maxim Preu underscores the EU's ongoing struggle to assert its leadership in foreign policy, often finding itself reacting to external initiatives. The debate surrounding frozen Russian assets and the preferred method of financial support for Ukraine reveals differing perspectives within the EU. Furthermore, the conversation highlights the EU's ambition to forge a more equitable and trusting partnership with Africa, while also recognizing the imperative for the EU to strengthen its role in conflict resolution and uphold its core values on the global stage. The challenge of achieving unanimity among member states remains a significant hurdle for the EU's foreign policy effectiveness.