EU designates Iran's Revolutionary Guards as a terrorist organisation

Key Concepts

• IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps): Iran’s elite military and political force, now designated as a terrorist organization by the EU, mirroring a US designation from 2019.
• De-escalation: Efforts to reduce tensions in the Middle East, particularly concerning potential Iranian retaliation against the US.
• Revolutionary Movements: The conditions and factors that contribute to regime change, as outlined by Professor Goldstone.
• Sanctions & Designations: The use of economic and political pressure by international bodies (EU, US) against Iran and specifically the IRGC.
• Kinetic Strikes: Potential military action involving physical force, specifically mentioned as a possible US response.
• Fiscal Crisis: A situation where a country faces significant economic difficulties, a key factor in potential regime change.
• UAVs (Unmanned Aerial Vehicles): Drones, specifically those supplied by Iran to Russia for use in the Ukraine war, leading to additional EU sanctions.

Iran-US Relations & EU Response to Protests

The report centers on escalating tensions between Iran and the United States, coupled with a strong response from the European Union to the Iranian government’s crackdown on protesters. Iran’s Foreign Minister stated that no meetings with the US are currently planned, citing unmet conditions for dialogue. This comes amidst threats from Iran to retaliate against the US should a strike occur.

The EU has designated the IRGC as a terrorist organization, a move welcomed by Washington but condemned by Tehran as “dangerous, illegal, and unjustified.” This designation is alongside sanctions imposed on 15 individuals and six entities allegedly involved in the suppression of protests and the supply of drones to Russia. EU Foreign Affairs Chief Kai Kalis stated, “any regime that kills thousands of its own is walking towards its own demise,” and emphasized the need for Iran to release unjustly detained individuals, including EU citizens.

Despite initial reservations from some member states like France and Italy, fearing diplomatic repercussions, the EU moved forward with the designation due to growing public pressure. French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot explained that “the unbearable repression of peaceful uprisings can’t go unanswered.” The Dutch representative added that Iran’s actions had “crossed the line.” The EU’s stance is summarized as: “if you act like a terrorist, you’ll be treated like a terrorist.”

US Military Posture & Potential Actions

Professor Jack A. Goldstone highlighted a significant shift in the US approach to Iran. Unlike previous periods, the US has now deployed “major military assets” to the region, and President Biden appears “particularly emboldened” by perceived successes in Venezuela. This deployment, combined with the EU’s designation of the IRGC, “validates any US action against the Revolutionary Guard, whether attacking its ballistic missiles or attacking its headquarters.” Potential US actions include “surgical strikes” targeting specific individuals or facilities. However, Goldstone stressed that genuine change in Iran must originate internally, “owned by the Iranian people.”

Factors Contributing to Potential Regime Change in Iran

Professor Goldstone outlined five key scenarios that must be present for potential regime change in any country, and assessed their current status in Iran:

1. Division within elites: Growing stronger.
2. Fiscal crisis: Gathering momentum.
3. Unity amongst the opposition: Building, but needs a unifying leader and narrative.
4. Favorable international environment: Stronger than in recent years, with increased external pressure.
5. Convincing narrative: Developing, with a growing belief that the clerical regime is no longer the best path for Iran.

He noted that while all factors are converging, further defections within the leadership, particularly the military, and a unifying leader for the opposition are still needed. He emphasized that revolution is a process, not an instant event, and that “elements are coming into place” suggesting major changes in the coming months.

IRGC’s Position & Future Outlook

Goldstone explained that the IRGC is facing increasing pressure. While it has historically benefited from economic privileges and powerful proxies, these advantages are diminishing. The IRGC’s remaining assets – ballistic missiles and control within the regime – are becoming less valuable as international condemnation grows. He suggested that the IRGC may need to support regime change to preserve some legitimacy and assets, or risk facing “kinetic action from the United States” and further international isolation.

He concluded that the military’s future and its view of Iran are crucial. If the military believes its privileges are unsustainable in a collapsing economy, it may be more willing to back a change in leadership.

Conclusion

The situation surrounding Iran is increasingly volatile. The EU’s designation of the IRGC as a terrorist organization, coupled with increased US military presence and potential for action, represents a significant escalation of pressure. While genuine change must come from within Iran, the converging factors outlined by Professor Goldstone suggest that the regime is weaker than it has been in years and that significant shifts are possible in the near future. The IRGC’s response and the willingness of the military to potentially support regime change will be critical determinants of Iran’s future trajectory.