ETHEREUM: Một đế chế đang dần bị lãng quên? | Trường Sơn | Tiền Tài

Key Concepts

Ethereum, Nokia Moment, Smart Contract, DeFi, NFT, GameFi, Bitcoin, Solana, Layer 2, TVL (Total Value Locked), Gas Fees, Staking, Narrative, EIP (Ethereum Improvement Proposal), Proto-Danksharding, Rollup-centric roadmap, Proof of Stake, The Merge, Cancun-Deneb, Petra, Arbitrum, Optimism, Base, Mimcoin, Builders, UX (User Experience), Airdrop, Incentives, Vitalik Buterin.

Ethereum: From Glorious Era to a Thoughtful Silence

The Peak of Ethereum (2021)

• Dominance: Ethereum was the central hub for all crypto innovations, including DeFi, NFTs, and GameFi.
• Key Protocols: Protocols like Uniswap, Curve, Aave, MakerDAO, Yearn, OpenSea, and Axie Infinity were all built on Ethereum.
• TVL: Total Value Locked (TVL) on Ethereum reached over $153 billion by the end of 2021, representing over 60% of the global DeFi market.
• Transaction Volume: Daily transaction volume ranged from 1 to 1.2 million, despite high gas fees (averaging $20-$50, sometimes exceeding $100).
• Active Addresses: Daily active addresses ranged from 400,000 to 500,000.
• ETH Price: The average ETH price was around $3700, with a market capitalization nearing $440 billion, challenging Bitcoin's dominance.
• Key takeaway: In 2021, Ethereum was the go-to platform for significant crypto projects.

The Shift (2024)

• Quietness: Ethereum hasn't collapsed, but it has become unusually quiet.
• TVL Decline: TVL has decreased to around $50 billion, a 65% drop from its 2021 peak. This decline is attributed to market correction and liquidity dispersion to new ecosystems like Solana, Arbitrum, Aptos, and Ton.
• User Exodus: A significant number of users have left or migrated to Layer 2 solutions.
• ETH Price Decline: ETH price has dropped nearly 50% to around $1850, with a market capitalization of approximately $220 billion.
• Gas Fee Reduction: Lower gas fees (around $0.2) indicate reduced network activity.
• Loss of Market Focus: Ethereum is no longer the focal point of the market. Bitcoin has broken its previous high due to ETFs and institutional money, while Solana and Base have emerged due to Mimcoins and new builders.
• Key takeaway: Ethereum is no longer the center of attention, with other blockchains gaining traction.

The Layer 2 Paradox

• Layer 2 Success: Layer 2 solutions like Arbitrum, Optimism, and Base have succeeded in providing faster speeds, lower fees, and better user experiences.
• Scalability vs. Value Accrual: While Layer 2 solutions help Ethereum scale, they don't effectively accumulate value for ETH.
• Liquidity Fragmentation: Layer 2 solutions are fragmenting liquidity, diverting it away from Layer 1.
• User Behavior: Users now primarily interact with stablecoins and project tokens on Layer 2, reducing the role of ETH.
• Key takeaway: Layer 2 solutions have improved scalability but have also diluted the value proposition of ETH.

Staking Challenges

• Low Yield: ETH staking yields are around 2.8%, lower than US government bonds.
• Lack of Incentive: The low yield makes ETH less attractive as a long-term investment for stable returns.
• Competition: Strong competition from other blockchains is undermining confidence and long-term growth.
• Key takeaway: Low staking yields are making ETH less attractive as a long-term investment.

The Nokia Moment Analogy

• Similarities: Ethereum's current situation resembles Nokia's decline: no collapse, no hacks, no scandals, but a gradual decline in key metrics and market sentiment.
• Slowing Down: Ethereum is slowing down in a rapidly accelerating world.
• The Fear of Being Forgotten: The biggest fear is not being replaced but being quietly forgotten while still existing.
• Key takeaway: Ethereum risks becoming irrelevant if it doesn't adapt to the changing market dynamics.

Why is Ethereum in This State?

Technical Prowess vs. Market Sentiment

• Technical Strength: Ethereum's technical foundation and ecosystem are stronger than ever.
• The Merge: The successful transition to Proof of Stake was a major achievement.
• Ongoing Upgrades: Upgrades like Cancun-Deneb and Petra are continuously improving network performance.
• Layer 2 Development: Layer 2 solutions are thriving, and development tools are more user-friendly.
• Security Standards: Ethereum's security standards remain exemplary.
• Key takeaway: Ethereum's technical strength is not the issue; the problem lies in its market perception.

Overstability and Lack of Excitement

• Stability vs. Speed: Ethereum's need for consensus, security checks, and a clear roadmap makes it slow to react to market trends compared to ecosystems like Solana and Ton.
• Speed over Stability: In the crypto market, speed is often valued more than stability.
• Loss of New Entrants: This makes Ethereum less appealing to new participants who prioritize excitement over technical details.
• Key takeaway: Ethereum's stability is a strength but also a weakness in a fast-paced market.

Value Fragmentation Due to Layer 2

• Layer 2 Independence: Layer 2 solutions have become nearly independent ecosystems.
• Shift in Value: Value and liquidity are being separated from Layer 1.
• Stablecoin Dominance: Users are now operating with stablecoins and project tokens on Layer 2, reducing the role of ETH.
• ETH's Diminished Role: ETH's role has diminished to a technical one, and it can even be replaced at the user experience level.
• Token Inflation: Layer 2 platforms are launching incentives, airdrops, and native tokens, leading to token inflation.
• Key takeaway: Layer 2 solutions have fragmented value and created a complex ecosystem with multiple competing tokens.

Lack of a Compelling Narrative

• Past Narratives: Ethereum was once the center of all compelling narratives (DeFi, NFT, GameFi, etc.).
• Current Lack of Narrative: Ethereum lacks a strong narrative to excite the market.
• Bitcoin's Narrative: Bitcoin has the narrative of digital gold.
• Solana's Narrative: Solana has the narrative of speed and UX.
• Ton's Narrative: Ton has the narrative of crypto for the masses via Telegram.
• Ethereum's Narrative: Ethereum is focused on upgrades that are difficult to communicate in a compelling way.
• Key takeaway: Ethereum lacks a compelling narrative to attract attention and drive adoption.

Technical Expertise vs. Storytelling

• Vitalik's Image: The viral memes about Vitalik Buterin highlight Ethereum's lack of a compelling public image.
• Lack of Inspiration: Ethereum lacks the ability to inspire the market, which is driven by stories and psychology.
• Solana's Success: Solana has succeeded by organizing large events, sponsoring hackathons, and embracing Mimcoins.
• Base's Success: Base has gained traction by leveraging Coinbase's marketing power and creating a web2-like user experience.
• Aptos' Approach: Aptos actively engages with the community, supports local web3 projects, and empowers new builders.
• Key takeaway: Ethereum needs to improve its storytelling and community engagement to regain market attention.

The Paradox of Long-Term Vision

• Ethereum's Long-Term Vision: Ethereum has a long-term vision but is losing touch with the present.
• Focus on Fundamentals: Ethereum is focused on testnet updates, protocol upgrades, and Layer 2 expansion.
• Lack of Market Excitement: These efforts do not generate the same level of excitement as Solana's Summer or Meme Season.
• Key takeaway: Ethereum's long-term vision may be hindering its ability to compete in the short-term market.

Conclusion

• Ethereum's Silent Building: Ethereum is quietly building while new ecosystems are capturing market attention.
• The Risk of Being Forgotten: Ethereum risks becoming a legacy project rather than a part of the future.
• The Need for Rebirth: Ethereum needs a new spark and a reason for the community to be excited about it.
• Potential for Comeback: With Vitalik's increased leadership, infrastructure upgrades, and Layer 2 integration, Ethereum could be entering a period of silent rebirth.
• Key takeaway: Ethereum needs to revitalize its narrative and reconnect with the market to ensure its continued relevance.