England must win first Ashes test | The Telegraph Cricket Podcast

Key Concepts

• Ashes Series Buildup: Discussion of the atmosphere, media attention, and fan presence in Perth for the first Ashes Test.
• Pitch Conditions: Analysis of the "green monster" pitch at Optus Stadium and its potential implications for England.
• Team Selection & Strategy: Debate over England's potential five-seamer attack, the absence of a specialist spinner, and Australia's selection dilemmas.
• Player Form & Fitness: Assessment of key players like Ben Stokes, Joe Root, Ollie Pope, Harry Brook, and Jofra Archer.
• England's Preparation: Examination of the criticism and defense of England's pre-series preparation methods.
• Australian Team Dynamics: Evaluation of Australia's current strength, potential weaknesses, and the impact of key player absences.
• "Bazball" Philosophy: Discussion on whether England will stick to their aggressive style even when chasing large targets.
• Predictions: Series score predictions and individual player performance forecasts.
• "Minute Monologue": A segment focusing on the perceived lack of "sledging" or aggressive banter from Australian cricketers.

Ashes Series Buildup and Pitch Conditions

The podcast opens with a discussion of the palpable excitement in Perth for the first Ashes Test. Nick Halt's photograph of the "green monster" pitch at Optus Stadium, featured on the front page of The West Australian, is highlighted as a significant visual for the series buildup. This pitch is described as a "stuff of nightmares for England," suggesting it will favor seam bowling. The stadium itself is noted to be a relatively new venue, with Optus not being a sponsor of Cricket Australia, leading to the stadium being referred to as "Perth Stadium" during the series.

The presence of English fans, including the "Barmy Army," is expected to be significant, with the first three days of the Test sold out, anticipating crowds of around 62,000. There's an expectation of a more even split between Australian and English supporters compared to the previous year's Test against India. The move from the traditional Gabba to Perth for the first Test is noted, with a brief mention of behind-the-scenes politics influencing this decision.

England's Opportunity and Australian Selection Dilemmas

A major talking point is Australia's absence of captain Pat Cummins and key fast bowler Josh Hazlewood for the first Test. This is seen as a significant opportunity for England, with Nick Halt suggesting England might win 4-0 or 5-0. The absence of these bowlers is particularly beneficial for Joe Root and Ollie Pope, as they were expected to exploit their weaker areas on Australian pitches.

Australia is described as "scrambling around for their best 11," a position usually associated with England. England's team selection is considered more settled, with a strong indication from their warm-up game at Lilac Hill. The podcast emphasizes that this is arguably the best opportunity an England captain has had in 40 years to win a first Ashes Test in Australia.

However, the potential downside of this massive opportunity is that failure to win the first Test could feel like a "little disaster." Will McFersonen adds that a loss in Perth, followed by a pink-ball Test in Brisbane where Australia, particularly Mitchell Starc, is very strong, would make a comeback very difficult for England.

The transcript also touches on the fitness of Pat Cummins, with observations that he didn't look "a million miles off" bowling and might have played if the series was on the line. It's anticipated he will play in Brisbane. The absence of Hazlewood is considered more likely to persist.

The podcast discusses Australia's bowling depth, mentioning the potential debut of fast bowler Brendan Doggett, who is 31 years old and has had to wait for injuries to open up a spot. Alex Carey spoke highly of Doggett, who has a good Sheffield Shield record. Scott Boland is also mentioned as an example of a bowler who has performed well in Test cricket despite not being rapid.

England's Preparation and Player Readiness

The criticism of England's preparation is acknowledged as a "tiresome topic" but also stemming from a place of concern for giving the team the best opportunity. While reasons for the preparation (state games, lack of opposition) are understood, the fact that England hadn't trained at the Optus Stadium or the WACA until the day before the first Test is highlighted as a concern, contrasting with India's preparation the previous year.

Despite this, the prevailing sentiment is that England looks "very, very relaxed." Ben Stokes is described as being in "terrific shape," "primed and pumped and ready to go" more than ever seen before. The "Bazball" project is seen as having been building towards this series, suggesting that the match preparation is only one element of their readiness.

The podcast also notes that England has not traditionally prepared in an "old school way" for series and often starts well before fading. However, the current group is seen as different, with a belief that they won't "take a backward step." The availability of key bowlers like Jofra Archer and Mark Wood is considered a "quiet triumph" in itself, along with the science and medicine team's planning.

England's Potential Team and Spin Bowling Debate

England is expected to go with a five-seamer attack, including Archer, Atkinson, Broad, Wood, and potentially Carson. Ollie Pope is confirmed at number three over Jacob Bethell. The absence of a specialist spinner is a point of contention. While local experts like Adam Voges and Michael Hussey suggest a spinner is always effective in Perth, England appears to have decided against it.

The rationale for this decision is explored: Australia might prefer facing a less experienced seamer like Carson or a lower-order batter like Moeen Ali or Will Jacks over a spinner. However, going without spin is acknowledged as a "doubtful risk." The perceived sidelining of spinner Shoaib Bashir from the selection conversation is seen by one commentator as an "admission of failure" in the "Bazball" project's spinner development. Bashir's performance in the warm-up game was poor, and he is expected to play for the Lions and potentially be considered for Adelaide, where a spinner might be needed.

Player Form and Predictions

Ben Stokes's Fitness: There's confidence that Ben Stokes will play all five Tests, with the challenge being to "save Ben from himself." Brendon McCullum and the coaching staff are seen as responsible for managing his workload.

Joe Root's Century Drought: The question of whether Joe Root will score a century in Australia is a significant talking point. While he's in "form of his life," a slight worry is his anxious appearance and lack of rhythm in the warm-up game. However, it's emphasized that it's a long series, and he's expected to play a big role.

Ollie Pope vs. Jacob Bethell: The debate over Ollie Pope and Jacob Bethell has subsided, with Pope having "quietly taken himself off the radar" and worked on his batting. His record against Australia (averaging 15.9) is a concern, but his recent form against India is seen as a positive. His confidence is considered key, and he appears more "confident and upright" now. The challenge for Pope is to maintain this level and score "200s in a series for the first time."

Zak Crawley vs. Harry Brook: Will McFersonen predicts Harry Brook will score more runs than Zak Crawley in the series. Brook is seen as someone who can take the game on, even when England is under pressure, and can exploit the larger Australian grounds. Crawley is acknowledged to have a good matchup against Australia and has had good performances in the past, but Brook is expected to provide more "meaty contributions."

Australian Team and Pitch Analysis: Australia is described as a "very good side" that is "better than England," having won the World Test Championship and reached the recent final. However, their batting is considered "frail and vulnerable." The podcast anticipates two debutants: opener Jake Weatherall and fast bowler Brendan Doggett. Cameron Green is the favorite to play as an all-rounder.

The nature of Australian pitches is discussed, with a shift towards being more bowler-friendly than in the past. The Kookaburra ball, with its reinforced seam, is expected to offer more assistance. While pitches might have "spice" early on, they are generally expected to flatten out.

Predictions and "Minute Monologue"

Series Score Predictions:

• Will McFersonen: England 3-2
• Nick Halt: England 3-2
• Jake Goodwill: England 3-2

Other Predictions:

• Will McFersonen: Jofra Archer to be Player of the Series, and Archer to dismiss Steve Smith in the first Test.
• Nick Halt: Gus Atkinson to be the leading wicket-taker for England.
• Will McFersonen: Australia will fall in love with "Bazball" and want to copy it.

"Minute Monologue" (Nick Halt): Nick expresses a desire for the return of aggressive banter from Australian cricketers, lamenting the current politeness observed in press conferences. He contrasts this with past Ashes series where players like Mitchell Johnson, Nathan Lyon, and Shane Warne engaged in more confrontational pre-series talk.

Listener Questions and Final Thoughts

Innings Lasting 100 Overs: England is predicted to bat for 100 overs only once, likely scoring 500+, while Australia is expected to do so three or four times, reflecting a more attritional style.

Fast Bowling Lineup for Australia: The selection of a fast-bowling attack is debated, with the question of whether it's suited for current Australian pitches or a past era. The need for skillful bowlers who can operate at a certain pace (around 83 mph) is emphasized, and England's attack is considered the best available seamers.

Chasing 300 on Day 5: England is strongly advised to "go for it" in chasing a target of around 300 on the final day, sticking to their "Bazball" philosophy rather than batting for a draw. Their ability to chase and the potential for Australians to "panic" are cited as reasons.

The podcast concludes with a thank you to listeners and a reminder to check out The Telegraph's sports website for further articles on the Ashes. The hosts promise to return after the first Test.