‘End it now’: Why the Gulf needs Trump to strike an Iran deal | Iran: the Latest

Key Concepts

• Strait of Hormuz: A critical maritime chokepoint for global oil transit, currently the focus of a blockade and potential reopening negotiations.
• Ceasefire: A fragile state of reduced hostilities that has persisted for 65 days, despite ongoing skirmishes.
• Memorandum of Understanding (MOU): The proposed diplomatic framework between the US and Iran to formalize the ceasefire and address nuclear concerns.
• Frozen Assets: Approximately $100 billion in Iranian funds held in international accounts, proposed as potential compensation for war damages.
• Strategic Diversification: The shift in Gulf states' foreign policy toward balancing relations between the US, China, and regional neighbors rather than relying on a single security partner.
• Functional Relations: A pragmatic approach to diplomacy where states maintain working ties despite deep-seated ideological or political animosity.

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1. Current Status of the Conflict

As of June 12, 2026, the war has reached its 105th day. Despite a 65-day ceasefire, sporadic attacks continue. President Trump has repeatedly signaled that a deal is imminent, though analysts note he has made similar claims at least 38 times since the ceasefire began. The primary objective of the US remains ensuring Iran never acquires a nuclear weapon, while the immediate tactical goal is the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

2. Diplomatic Negotiations and Sticking Points

Anisa Baseri Tabrizi (Chatham House) highlights that while both sides are closer to an agreement than in the past, significant hurdles remain:

• Financial Concessions: The US faces political difficulty in unfreezing Iranian assets, which Iran views as a necessary component of any deal.
• Nuclear Program: A major compromise appears to be the US allowing Iran to retain highly enriched uranium, provided there is a mechanism (such as a consortium or dilution process) to manage it. The "nitty-gritty" of these technical safeguards remains a point of contention.
• Narrative Control: Both the US and Iran are struggling to frame the potential agreement as a "win" for their respective domestic audiences.

3. Regional Dynamics and Military Posturing

• Retaliatory Attacks: Recent Iranian strikes on US forces in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan are characterized as "calibrated responses" rather than an attempt to restart full-scale war. These attacks serve to restore deterrence and demonstrate military capability.
• Gulf State Perspectives: Countries like the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar are prioritizing de-escalation to restore economic stability, tourism, and investment. They view the current instability as a threat to their long-term economic visions.
• The "Assad" Factor: The fall of the Assad regime in December 2024 has left Syria as a fragile state and a potential proxy flashpoint for a growing rivalry between Turkey and Israel.

4. Strategic Shifts in the Gulf

• Diversification: Gulf nations are moving away from "putting all their eggs in one basket." While the US remains a vital security partner, these countries are increasingly engaging with China (e.g., purchasing drones) and seeking functional, non-antagonistic relations with Iran.
• Normalization Skepticism: The war has accelerated skepticism regarding the normalization of ties between Israel and Arab nations. Stability is currently the primary driver of regional policy, favoring bilateral arrangements over grand, high-risk alliances.

5. Analysis of "Regime Change"

A key argument presented is that the US and Israel fundamentally miscalculated the impact of the war. Despite the "decapitation" campaign (targeting leadership), the Islamic Republic’s structural pillars remain intact. Anisa Baseri Tabrizi notes:

"The same structure is in place. We have the Islamic Republic still there... the whole pillars of the Islamic Republic's foreign policy, regional policy, domestic policy are still there so that is not regime change in my view."

6. Synthesis and Conclusion

The conflict has reached a stalemate where neither side desires a return to full-scale war, yet neither is willing to fully capitulate. The "new normal" in the Middle East appears to be a pragmatic, albeit tense, environment where regional powers prioritize economic survival and functional diplomacy over ideological victory. The war has not resulted in the collapse of the Iranian regime, but rather has forced a recalibration of regional alliances, with Gulf states increasingly looking to diversify their security and economic partnerships to mitigate future risks.