Elections & Shutdown | Political implications for both parties

Key Concepts

• Off-year races: Elections held in years between presidential elections.
• Government shutdown: A situation where Congress fails to pass appropriations bills, leading to a lapse in federal funding and the suspension of non-essential government services.
• Filibuster: A parliamentary procedure in the Senate that allows a senator or group of senators to delay or block a vote on a bill or other measure.
• Healthcare premiums: The amount paid by an individual or family for health insurance coverage.
• Subsidies: Financial assistance provided by the government to reduce the cost of a service or product.
• Midterms: Congressional elections held in the middle of a president's term.
• Independent voters: Voters who are not affiliated with any political party.

Political Implications of Off-Year Races During a Government Shutdown

Political science professor Andrew Pski discusses the potential political implications of major off-year races occurring during a government shutdown.

Virginia Race

• Impact of Shutdown: Pski believes the government shutdown will have a significant impact in Virginia, where many federal employees are facing temporary or permanent unemployment.
• Voter Blame: He anticipates that voters in Virginia will blame Republicans for the shutdown.
• Predicted Outcome: Consequently, Pski predicts that the Democratic candidate will win in Virginia, though he expects it to be a close contest.

New Jersey Race

• Importance of the Contest: While Virginia is more directly affected by the shutdown, Pski considers the New Jersey race to be more important for the Democratic party.
• Democratic Need: He states that Democrats "really can't afford to lose" New Jersey, as losing the state would be "very demoralizing."
• Historical Trend: New Jersey has historically been a "blue state," but Democrats have struggled to retain control of the governorship for more than two consecutive terms.
• Uphill Climb for Democrat: The Democratic candidate, Mikey Cheryl, faces an "uphill climb" due to this historical trend, as the state is coming off two consecutive terms with a Democratic governor.
• State-Specific Issues: New Jersey also faces its own set of issues, such as high property taxes and other taxes, which generally do not favor Democratic candidates.

Impact of Shutdown on Shutdown Strategy

• Limited Election Impact: Pski does not believe the election results will directly shift the shutdown strategy for either party in the short term.
• Voter Impact as Driver: He suggests that the shutdown's impact on an increasing number of voters will be the primary factor influencing strategy.
• Healthcare Premium Increases: The increase in healthcare premiums due to the loss of subsidies is highlighted as a significant issue that will heavily impact individuals and healthcare systems, particularly outside of major urban areas.
• Referendum on Trump Presidency: These elections are viewed as an "early referendum on the Trump presidency," similar to how midterms often function.

Voter Perception and Party Blame

• Democratic Vulnerability: Pski argues that these races matter more to Democrats than Republicans. A loss in New Jersey or Virginia would be a significant blow to Democrats, while Republicans might "shrug their shoulders" as they didn't expect to win these states.
• Effectiveness of Republican Narrative: Republicans have attempted to use the shutdown to their advantage by blaming Democrats for using the filibuster to block legislation and shut down the government. However, Pski has not seen "much of an effect yet."
• Party Blame Tendency: He observes that voters tend to blame the opposing party for the shutdown, with Democrats blaming Republicans and vice versa.
• Independent Voters as Key: The crucial factor will be how independent voters lean and whom they ultimately blame.
• Historical Precedent: Historically, the party that initiates or causes a government shutdown is the one that typically receives the blame. Pski notes that Democrats have taken a "risk" by supporting the shutdown up to this point.

Conclusion

The off-year races in Virginia and New Jersey, occurring during a government shutdown, present distinct political challenges and opportunities for both parties. While Virginia's outcome is expected to be directly influenced by the shutdown's impact on federal employees, New Jersey represents a more strategically vital contest for Democrats due to its historical voting patterns and the party's need to retain the state. The shutdown's broader effects, particularly on healthcare costs, are anticipated to be the primary driver of shifts in voter sentiment and party strategies, rather than the election results themselves. Historically, the party responsible for a shutdown faces blame, a risk that Democrats have taken in this instance. The influence of independent voters will be a key determinant in understanding the ultimate political fallout.