Election 2025 - it's on! || Insiders

Key Concepts:

• Election Campaign Management
• Central Headquarters (CHQ)
• Campaign Strategy and Tactics
• Leader Management During Campaigns
• Policy Formation
• Momentum and Energy in Campaigns
• Media Management
• Influencer Engagement
• Risk-Reward in Public Appearances
• Debate Preparation
• Soft Voters
• Crisis Management

1. Campaign Structure and Transition:

• The transition from governing to campaigning involves shifting from traditional government structures (cabinet ministers coordinated by the Prime Minister's office) to a Central Headquarters (CHQ).
• CHQ is staffed by different personnel with specific job descriptions, focusing on political strategy and announcements.
• The campaign is driven by politics, with coordination flowing through CHQ.
• The leaders (Anthony Albanese and Peter Dutton) become part of the campaign, rather than solely running it from the top.
• Teams within CHQ focus on target seats, advertising, legal matters, and research.
• Andrew Hurst leads the Liberal Party's campaign, while Paul Erickson leads the Labor Party's campaign.

2. Leader-CHQ Relationship:

• Trust between the leader and the head of CHQ is crucial for campaign success.
• Leaders cede power to CHQ regarding where to go and what to say.
• Peter Dutton's team is new to campaign management, while Andrew Hurst has extensive experience.

3. Policy Formation and Momentum:

• Policy formation is a key challenge, requiring new policies every third or fourth day to sustain momentum.
• Maintaining energy throughout the campaign is critical, requiring early mornings (4:30-5:00 AM starts) and long days.
• Lighter moments and team support are essential to manage fatigue.

4. Media Management and Influencers:

• Campaigns focus on the morning media cycle, aiming to drive the news agenda.
• There's a significant amount of downtime waiting for media events.
• Engaging with influencers is increasingly important to reach non-traditional audiences.
• The Coalition criticized Albanese's influencer strategy but should adopt their own.

5. Public Appearances and Risk Management:

• Mixing with voters involves a risk-reward calculation, balancing the desire for positive images with the potential for unexpected incidents.
• Leaders like Bill Shorten gained energy from interacting with people, making the risk worthwhile.
• Stage-managed events can appear cynical to journalists.

6. Mini-Campaign Launches:

• Mini-campaign launches are designed to showcase momentum and energy to the public.
• They provide a platform for the leader to deliver key messages and project a prime ministerial image.

7. Debate Preparation:

• Extensive preparation goes into debates, including scenario planning and message development.
• Leaders travel with briefing books outlining key angles and points to make.
• Rehearsals often involve individuals role-playing as the opposing leader.
• Scott Morrison was keen on doing dummy press conferences before every press conference.

8. Campaign Dynamics and Opening Pitches:

• The government (Labor) pivoted effectively after Tropical Cyclone Jasper, pulling forward health announcements.
• Unexpected messages, such as Labor positioning itself as the party of lower taxes, have emerged.
• Mistakes are inevitable, and the key is to quickly contain them and move on.
• Anthony Albanese struggled with facts and figures early in the previous campaign.

9. Crisis Management:

• Ryan Liddell's darkest memory was dealing with Bob Hawke's death during the 2019 campaign, requiring Bill Shorten to conduct an interview while privately devastated.
• Andrew Carwell recalled a situation where a candidate's online comments created a crisis, highlighting the need to address such issues swiftly.

10. Campaign Outlook and Soft Voters:

• The 2025 election campaign is considered highly important due to a large proportion (40-45%) of soft voters.
• The Coalition faces the challenge of winning back soft voters, particularly those who might have previously supported the Greens.
• Recent missteps by the Coalition could sharpen their focus and discipline.
• A significant portion of voters are expected to vote before election day.
• The rise of the Teals and Greens creates multi-way contests.

11. Key Quotes:

• "You win the images and you win the day" - Andrew Carwell, emphasizing the importance of visual messaging in campaigns.
• "It's always better to have bad news happen outside the furnace of an election campaign" - Ryan Liddell, highlighting the importance of timing in managing negative events.

12. Technical Terms and Concepts:

• CHQ (Central Headquarters): The central hub for campaign operations, distinct from traditional government structures.
• Marginal Seats: Seats where the election outcome is uncertain and both parties are actively competing for votes.
• Soft Voters: Voters who are undecided or open to changing their vote, making them a key target for campaigns.
• Doors Stop: An impromptu press conference, often used to address urgent issues.

13. Synthesis/Conclusion:

The 2025 Australian election campaign is poised to be highly competitive, with both major parties needing to effectively manage their strategies, leaders, and messaging. The campaign will hinge on winning over a large pool of soft voters, navigating potential crises, and adapting to the evolving media landscape, including the rise of influencers. The ability to maintain momentum, manage fatigue, and quickly address mistakes will be crucial for success.