El Nino sẽ trở lại từ tháng 6 đến tháng 8 năm nay, gây nắng nóng, hạn, xâm nhập mặn | VTV24

Key Concepts

• El Niño: A climate phenomenon characterized by the warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, leading to global weather disruptions.
• Super El Niño: An extreme intensity event where sea surface temperatures exceed 1.5°C above average.
• Saltwater Intrusion: The movement of saline water into freshwater aquifers or river systems, often exacerbated by drought and low river flow.
• Tropical Depressions/Storms: Low-pressure weather systems that can develop into typhoons; their frequency and intensity are often altered by El Niño.
• Meteorological Modeling: The use of computer simulations to predict long-term climate patterns, though accuracy varies based on the time of year (the "predictability barrier").

1. Global Forecasts and Meteorological Data

International agencies have provided significant forecasts regarding the return of El Niño:

• Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA): Predicts a 70% probability of El Niño occurring this summer.
• US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA): Estimates an 80–90% probability of formation, with potential duration extending into early 2027.
• Intensity: While a "Super El Niño" (temperature anomaly >1.5°C) is possible, experts estimate the probability of this extreme scenario at only 25%.
• Indicators: The recent formation of typhoons Ma and Shaku on opposite sides of the western Pacific equator created westerly wind bursts, a classic precursor that pushes warm water toward the eastern Pacific.

2. Expert Assessment for Vietnam

Mr. Mai Van Khiem, Director of the National Center for Meteorological and Hydrological Forecasting, provided the following insights:

• Probability: There is an 80–90% likelihood of an El Niño event between June and August.
• Model Reliability: Long-term forecasts (5–6 months out) and those made during the March–April transition period carry higher uncertainty. Data updates in May are critical to confirming the intensity of the event.
• Comparison: While some models suggest intensity levels similar to the 2015–2016 or 2023–2024 events, the probability of such high intensity is currently estimated at only 20–25%.

3. Impacts on Weather and Climate

El Niño typically alters Vietnam’s climate in the following ways:

• Rainfall: Total annual rainfall is expected to be lower than normal. However, there remains a high risk of "extreme heavy rainfall" occurring in short, concentrated bursts, leading to flash floods and landslides.
• Temperature: Summers are expected to be hotter and more intense.
• Storm Activity: The frequency of tropical storms in the East Sea is expected to be lower than average. However, the storms that do form may be "very strong" due to high ocean temperatures.
• Water Security: A significant risk of water scarcity, severe drought, and saltwater intrusion is anticipated, particularly in the Central region and the Mekong Delta during late 2026 and early 2027.

4. Mitigation and Proactive Measures

To address these risks, the following actions are recommended:

• Water Management: Local authorities must prioritize the storage of water and the strategic operation of reservoirs to balance agricultural needs and electricity generation.
• Agricultural Adjustments: Farmers are advised to adjust cropping patterns, especially in the Mekong Delta and Central Vietnam, to account for potential water shortages.
• Governmental Coordination: The meteorological agency is currently drafting comprehensive risk assessment reports for the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment to establish specific response scenarios.

5. Synthesis and Conclusion

The return of El Niño is highly probable, with significant implications for Vietnam’s climate stability. While the exact intensity remains subject to further data collection in the coming months, the primary threats—drought, saltwater intrusion, and extreme weather volatility—require immediate proactive planning. The consensus among experts is that while the frequency of storms may decrease, the severity of individual weather events and the risk of water scarcity necessitate urgent, coordinated efforts in water resource management and agricultural adaptation to protect both the economy and public safety.