El Mencho’s final move: Was a successor already chosen? CJNG to appoint next cartel boss! Know WHO

The Death of “El Mencho” and the Future of CJNG

Key Concepts:

• CJNG (Jalisco New Generation Cartel): A powerful Mexican drug cartel, considered the most dominant after the Sinaloa Cartel.
• Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes (“El Mencho”): The former leader of CJNG, recently killed by the Mexican military.
• Sinaloa Cartel: CJNG’s primary rival, historically the most powerful cartel in Mexico.
• Claudia Sheinbaum: The current President of Mexico, whose administration faces significant challenges in maintaining security.
• Operational Doctrine: Military principles emphasizing planning and execution by the same personnel.
• Air Mobile Force: A military unit utilizing helicopters for rapid deployment and maneuverability.

1. The Fall of El Mencho and Initial Reactions

The killing of Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, known as “El Mencho,” on February 22nd has triggered a significant response from Mexican drug cartels, particularly CJNG. El Mencho rose from a police officer to become one of the world’s most wanted criminals, leading CJNG to become Mexico’s most powerful cartel following the decline of the Sinaloa Cartel and the imprisonment of Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán. The United States offered a $15 million reward for information leading to his arrest. His death has created a power vacuum within CJNG and raised questions about the future of the cartel and Mexico’s drug landscape. Immediately following the operation, violence erupted across at least 20 Mexican states, including Jalisco, Michoacán, and Guanajuato, resulting in at least 14 deaths, including seven National Guard members. Cities like Guadalajara experienced near shutdowns, with postponed sporting events, suspended public transport, and school closures. The US Embassy issued a security alert advising American citizens to shelter in place.

2. Potential Successors and Internal Power Struggles

The survival of CJNG hinges on its ability to quickly establish a new leader. Several potential candidates exist, but each faces challenges. Roselinda Gonzalez Valencia, El Mencho’s widow, is a crucial financial operator within CJNG and the daughter of a former drug lord. However, her ascension to leadership is uncertain due to the traditionally “machismo” culture within the cartel. Alternatively, one of El Mencho’s four known commanders could assume control, but disagreements among them could lead to a violent succession war. A third possibility is the complete disintegration of CJNG, allowing the Sinaloa Cartel to expand its dominance. Notably, El Mencho’s brothers are currently in custody, and his son, a former CJNG commander, was extradited to the US in 2020, further complicating the succession process.

3. The Operation: A Detailed Account

The Mexican military’s operation to locate and eliminate El Mencho was a meticulously planned and executed undertaking. Surveillance of one of El Mencho’s romantic partners proved crucial, leading to the identification of a facility in Tapalpa, Jalisco, where he was staying with a security detail. The operation adhered to a core military principle: the planners must be the executors. Special forces personnel and the immediate reaction special force of the National Guard were responsible for both planning and carrying out the operation.

The operational force comprised three components:

• Ground Unit: Composed of personnel from joint special forces, army special forces, and the National Guard’s immediate reaction special force.
• Air Mobile Force: Six helicopters providing rapid deployment and support. This force was strategically positioned in states bordering Jalisco to maintain secrecy and achieve surprise.
• Specialized Military Force: Provided air support using versatile Texan aircraft from the Mexican Air Force.

Once El Mencho’s presence was fully confirmed on the night of February 22nd, the ground force moved in. A brutal and violent firefight ensued, resulting in the deaths of El Mencho and his two bodyguards, as well as the wounding of a soldier. Seven long guns and two rocket launchers (including a Russian-made RPG, the same type used to down an Air Force helicopter in 2015) were seized, along with eight vehicles.

4. Post-Engagement and Transport of the Body

Following the initial engagement, El Mencho and his wounded bodyguards were transported by helicopter to a medical facility in Jalisco. However, due to his critical condition, it was decided to transfer him to Morelia International Airport in Michoacán, and then to Mexico City via fighter jet. This decision was made to avoid potential retaliatory actions by CJNG in Guadalajara, deemed too risky. The transport route was altered to prioritize security and prevent further violence against the public.

5. Political Implications and Shifting Security Strategies

The successful operation against El Mencho occurred amidst a shift in the Mexican government’s security strategy. President Claudia Sheinbaum, who assumed office in 2024, initially deployed troops to Sinaloa State, inadvertently benefiting CJNG by allowing it to expand. The government now appears to be dividing its security efforts, with Security Minister Omar Garcia Haruch focusing on the Sinaloa Cartel while the military targeted El Mencho. This operation represents a significant event during Sheinbaum’s presidency, potentially defining a crucial chapter in Mexican history.

6. Seized Materials

In addition to the weapons seized during the initial firefight, a subsequent search yielded three long guns, two handguns, a rocket launcher, grenades, magazines, and cartridges. Two additional soldiers were wounded during this phase of the operation.

Conclusion:

The death of El Mencho marks a pivotal moment in Mexico’s fight against drug cartels. While it represents a significant victory for the Mexican government, it also introduces a period of uncertainty and potential instability. The future of CJNG remains unclear, with the possibility of internal conflict, a takeover by the Sinaloa Cartel, or the emergence of a new leader. President Sheinbaum’s administration faces the challenge of navigating this complex situation and maintaining security in the face of potential retaliatory violence. The operation itself showcased a sophisticated military strategy emphasizing meticulous planning, coordinated execution, and a focus on minimizing risk to the public.