Ecuador votes on foreign military bases, President Noboa says needed to combat crime • FRANCE 24

Key Concepts

• Constitutional Referendums: Votes by citizens on proposed changes to a country's constitution.
• Foreign Military Bases: Military installations operated by a foreign country within another country's territory.
• Drug Trafficking: The illegal trade of narcotic drugs.
• Organized Crime: Criminal activities planned and executed by a group of people.
• Constituent Assembly: A body elected to draft or revise a constitution.
• Left-wing Nationalist: A political ideology characterized by a focus on national interests, social justice, and state intervention in the economy.
• Center-right: A political position that is moderate and generally favors free markets and individual liberties.
• Human Rights Violations: Infringements of fundamental human rights.
• Free Market: An economic system where prices are determined by unrestricted competition between privately owned businesses.
• Belt and Road Initiative: A global infrastructure development strategy adopted by the Chinese government.

Referendum on Constitutional Changes in Ecuador

This report details upcoming constitutional referendums in Ecuador, focusing on four key questions that will be put to approximately 14 million voters. The central theme revolves around security, the fight against drug trafficking, and the potential for increased foreign influence.

1. Foreign Military Bases and Security

• Main Topic: The potential re-establishment of foreign military bases in Ecuador.
• Key Points:
  • The current center-right President, Daniel Noboa, advocates for allowing foreign military bases back into the country.
  • This move is framed as a measure to enhance security and combat drug trafficking.
  • Ecuador's strategic location between Peru and Colombia, the world's two largest cocaine producers, has made it a significant transit hub for drugs destined for Europe and the United States.
  • Organized criminal activity has "exploded" in recent years, leading to Ecuador experiencing the highest murder rate in Latin America.
  • President Noboa's administration has pursued an aggressive approach to security, including heavy militarization and the construction of a new maximum-security prison.
  • However, this approach has faced resistance from courts due to concerns about human rights violations.
  • The former leftist president, Rafael Correa, expelled US forces in 2008, banning foreign military bases.
  • Pollsters predict a slight majority in favor of allowing foreign military bases.
• Supporting Evidence/Arguments:
  • President Noboa's statement: "Unfortunately, due to the danger posed by drug trafficking and crime, I believe that the local police or security forces are not enough."
  • Journalist Colin Harding's perspective: The US sees Ecuador as a potential ally in a region where it opposes left-wing regimes. A base, such as the former one at Manta, would be a "very useful foothold" for US operations against drug trafficking in the Pacific.

2. Constitutional Reform and Presidential Power

• Main Topic: The question of whether to create an elected body to rewrite the constitution.
• Key Points:
  • President Noboa argues that the current constitution is an obstacle to his agenda.
  • The existing constitution, introduced under Rafael Correa, is described as a "left-wing nationalist document" that includes protections for personal rights, guarantees, and limits on foreign investment and trade, as well as the ban on foreign military bases.
  • Critics, including some voters and environmental/indigenous activists, express wariness about the president's intentions.
  • Concerns include the potential for the president to consolidate power and reduce barriers to mining.
  • The current constitution enshrined the "rights of nature" nearly two decades ago.
  • Colin Harding suggests that President Noboa is modeling himself on El Salvador's President Bukele, adopting a "hard line anti-crime, tough on opposition" stance.
  • The constitutional court has previously restrained Noboa's actions.
  • A new constitution, if drafted, could give Noboa a "freer hand" to implement tough policies and develop relations with the United States.
• Supporting Evidence/Arguments:
  • Voter sentiment: "We don't know what he has in mind for the new constitution. It's an unnecessary referendum, an unnecessary expense. When all those resources could be invested in health and education."
  • Colin Harding: "I think the crucial vote today is the one on a new constitution and whether there should be a constituent assembly to draw up a new charter." He also notes that the existing constitution "has limited his ability to do this because the constitutional court... has restrained him."
• Process: If the referendum passes, a constituent assembly of approximately 80 members will be elected to draft a new constitution. This new document would then require another referendum for approval.

3. Other Referendum Questions

• Main Topic: Additional questions on the ballot.
• Key Points:
  • A question on whether to end public financing for political parties.
  • A question on whether to reduce the number of lawmakers.

4. International Relations and Geopolitics

• Main Topic: The role of the United States and China in Ecuador's political landscape.
• Key Points:
  • United States:
    • Seeks an ally in the region, particularly given its opposition to left-wing regimes in Venezuela, Colombia, Nicaragua, and Cuba.
    • Desires closer strategic and economic relations with Ecuador.
    • The US Secretary of Homeland Security, Kirstjen Nielsen, recently toured bases in Ecuador.
  • China:
    • While less influential in Ecuador than in countries like Brazil and Argentina, China's growing presence in Latin America is a strategic concern for the US.
    • China's Belt and Road Initiative is being adopted in some Latin American countries.
    • The US views China's expansion as an attempt to "muscle in" on what they consider their "backyard."
    • Figures like Marco Rubio are focused on countering Chinese influence and strengthening pro-American governments.
• Supporting Evidence/Arguments:
  • Colin Harding: "I think the American strategic interest is that they know that the Chinese are keen on developing relations with Latin America." He also states, "the Americans are very keen to counter that."

5. Voter Concerns and Divisions

• Main Topic: Divergent opinions and concerns among Ecuadorian voters.
• Key Points:
  • Some voters are divided, with concerns ranging from the redirection of resources to tackle corruption and crime to questions about the influence of foreign troops.
  • There is apprehension about the potential for the president to consolidate power and create fewer barriers to mining, especially given Ecuador's constitutional protection of nature.
  • The cost of the referendum itself is a point of contention for some, who believe the funds could be better allocated to health and education.

Synthesis and Conclusion

The upcoming referendums in Ecuador present a critical juncture for the nation, with significant implications for its security, governance, and international alignment. President Noboa is leveraging concerns over escalating drug trafficking and organized crime to push for constitutional changes that could grant him greater executive power and facilitate closer ties with the United States. The potential re-establishment of foreign military bases and a revised constitution are central to this agenda. However, these proposals are met with considerable skepticism from segments of the population who fear a consolidation of power, a rollback of rights, and a departure from Ecuador's progressive environmental protections. The geopolitical dimension, with the US seeking to counter Chinese influence in the region, adds another layer of complexity to the vote. The outcome of these referendums will likely shape Ecuador's trajectory towards a more market-oriented, US-aligned, and security-focused state, or potentially lead to continued debate and resistance over the direction of its governance and its place in the global arena.