Ecuador’s Cocoa Boom Shows How Climate Change Is Redrawing Agriculture

Key Concepts

• Climate Change & Cocoa: The impact of changing weather patterns (extreme heat, rainfall, disease outbreaks) on cocoa production.
• Cocoa Belt: The narrow tropical band where cocoa is grown, with West Africa historically dominating production.
• CCN-51: A high-yield, hardy cacao strain widely used in Ecuador.
• Agroforestry: The practice of growing cacao alongside other trees and shrubs for sustainability and disease prevention.
• Cacao Fruit Utilization: Moving beyond using only the beans and utilizing the pulp and other parts of the cacao fruit.
• Decentralization of Cocoa Production: Diversifying cocoa sourcing to increase resilience against climate shocks.
• Swollen Shoot Virus: A disease impacting cocoa production in West Africa.

Ecuador’s Rising Cocoa Production: A Response to Climate Change & Market Shifts

The Ecuadorian Cocoa Landscape

Ecuador, located in the foothills outside Guayaquil and 150 miles south of the equator, is experiencing a “golden age” of cocoa production. Output is projected to reach 800,000 tons by 2030, more than double the 2023 levels. This growth is largely driven by the changing climate and the resulting disruptions in traditional cocoa-producing regions. The ripe cacao fruit contains beans surrounded by pulp, representing the raw material for this burgeoning industry.

Climate Change Impacts on Global Cocoa Supply

The video highlights the vulnerability of cocoa production to extreme weather events. Climate change is causing shifts in temperature and rainfall patterns, impacting cocoa yields and quality. Specifically:

• Extreme Heat: Temperatures exceeding 32°C (90°F) cause cacao leaves to shrivel, reducing shade for the pods and leading to rot and decreased yields. Climate Central data shows an additional 3 weeks per year exceeding this optimal temperature in West Africa over the last decade.
• Extreme Rainfall: Both excessive and insufficient rainfall negatively affect cocoa plants, hindering planting, harvesting, and overall plant health.
• Historical Examples: The 2010 Russian heatwave impacted wheat production, and recent flooding in the U.S. Midwest caused significant crop losses, demonstrating the broader vulnerability of agriculture to climate events.
• West African Crisis: In 2024, a combination of extreme weather in West Africa (which produces 70% of the world’s cocoa) and outbreaks of swollen shoot disease severely impacted the industry.

Price Volatility and Market Response

The disruptions in West Africa triggered a historic price spike in cocoa. Prices surged almost 80% in a few months, exceeding $12,000 per ton in the U.S. market. While prices have since fallen to around $5,000 per ton, they remain more than double the levels of three years ago. This price increase created an opportunity for alternative producers, particularly in Ecuador, to fill the supply gap.

Ecuador’s Historical Connection to Cocoa

Cocoa originated in the upper Amazon, in present-day Ecuador, before being introduced to Africa in the early 1800s. Now, the industry is experiencing a “full circle” moment, with Ecuador ramping up production and poised to surpass Ghana as the world’s second-largest producer. Iván Ontaneda, Chairman of Ecuador’s Cocoa Exporters Association and CEO of ECO-KAKAO, emphasizes Ecuador’s recognition as a producer of high-quality cocoa, supplying Europe, the United States, Asia, and Japan. He noted the unprecedented price surge in 2020, exceeding $10,000 per metric ton.

Ecuadorian Strategies for Climate Resilience

Despite its potential, Ecuador is also vulnerable to climate change. The country is adapting through several strategies:

• Genetic Investment: Focusing on research and development of cocoa genetics to combat disease, a major issue currently affecting West Africa.
• CCN-51 Strain: Utilizing the CCN-51 cacao strain, developed in the 1980s, known for its high yield and relative hardiness. Johann Zeller, a cocoa farmer, handles between 300-1,000 tons of beans weekly.
• Agroforestry Practices: Employing sustainable farming methods by planting cacao alongside other trees and shrubs. This approach reduces risk by:
  • Providing shade during windy conditions, preventing leaf dryness.
  • Attracting hawks that prey on squirrels, protecting the cacao pods.
  • Promoting overall ecosystem health.

Innovative Processing and Full Fruit Utilization

Ecuadorian farmers are also embracing innovative processing techniques. Johann Zeller processes the cacao fruit on-site, supplying chocolatier Oded Brenner’s Blue Stripes company. Brenner emphasizes Ecuador’s cooperative approach to discovering the potential of the cacao fruit. Blue Stripes is pioneering the use of the entire cacao fruit, not just the beans, to address increasing global demand and reduce waste. He argues that utilizing the entire fruit is crucial given the growing global population.

Looking Ahead: Decentralization and Long-Term Concerns

Kristina Dahl, Vice President for Science at Climate Central, expresses concern about the long-term viability of cocoa production. She states, “There’s not going to be cacao,” highlighting the potential for complete crop failure if climate change continues unchecked. She observed changes in Ecuadorian seasons during a visit four years ago, noting shifts in rainfall patterns and reduced cacao yields.

The video concludes that decentralizing cocoa production – sourcing from multiple regions – is crucial for building a more resilient commodity market. This diversification would mitigate the impact of localized climate shocks, as conditions are unlikely to be simultaneously unfavorable across all cocoa-growing regions. The cocoa story serves as a warning about the future of climate and agriculture, predicting more frequent disruptions to global crops. As Brenner states, “We can expect to see more shocks to our global crops like we saw with cacao production in 2024.”