Dự báo ngày 5/11, bão Kalmaegi sẽ đi vào Biển Đông, trở thành bão số 13 | VTV24

Key Concepts

• Bão CamI (Typhoon CamI): A powerful typhoon expected to enter the East Sea and become the 13th storm of the season.
• Mưa lũ (Rain and Flooding): Severe rainfall and flooding impacting central Vietnam, particularly Hà Tĩnh to Quảng Ngãi.
• Lũ quét và sạt lở đất (Flash floods and landslides): High risk of these events due to heavy rainfall in mountainous and hilly areas.
• Vỡ hồ chứa (Reservoir breach): Incidents of reservoir failures causing fatalities and damage.
• Nước lũ cô lập (Flood isolation): Communities cut off by floodwaters, requiring rescue and relief efforts.
• Hồ chứa nước (Water reservoir): Structures for storing water, some of which have experienced issues.
• Đê bao (Dike/Embankment): Protective barriers against floods, some of which have been breached.
• Sạt lở đất (Landslides): Ground movement on slopes, exacerbated by heavy rain.
• Ngập úng (Waterlogging/Inundation): Areas submerged under water.
• Cầu sập (Bridge collapse): Structural failure of bridges due to strong currents and erosion.

Current Weather Situation and Forecasts

Rain and Flooding in Central Vietnam

• Affected Areas: Hà Tĩnh to Quảng Ngãi are experiencing ongoing heavy rainfall and flooding. Huế, Đà Nẵng, and Quảng Ngãi are currently the hardest hit.
• Rainfall Totals:
  • Many locations have received over 200 mm of rain.
  • Bạch Mã peak in Huế recorded 542 mm.
  • Over the past week, these areas have experienced up to 1000 mm of rain.
  • Bạch Mã peak in Huế has recorded nearly 4000 mm of rain in total.
• Record-Breaking Events: Dozens of rainfall and flood records have been broken, with residents facing a "great flood" not seen in decades.
• Forecasted Rainfall (until the evening of November 4th):
  • Huế, Đà Nẵng, Quảng Ngãi, and southern Quảng Trị: 250-450 mm, with some areas exceeding 700 mm.
  • Hà Tĩnh and northern Quảng Trị: 150-250 mm, with some areas exceeding 400 mm.
• Risk of Flash Floods and Landslides: 235 communes and wards from Hà Tĩnh to Lâm Đồng are at risk. Quảng Trị, Huế, Đà Nẵng, Quảng Ngãi, and northern Gia Lai are under the highest alert.
• River Levels: Rivers in Quảng Trị to Quảng Ngãi are rising again. By the afternoon of November 4th, water levels are expected to reach near or above alarm level 3, potentially causing widespread deep flooding in low-lying areas along rivers.

Typhoon CamI

• Entry into East Sea: Expected to enter the East Sea on Wednesday of the following week, becoming the 13th storm.
• Strength: A powerful typhoon, potentially reaching level 14 with gusts up to level 17 when in the East Sea.
• Movement: Moving quite fast.
• Impact: Likely to directly affect the mainland of central Vietnam.
• Forecast Consistency: International forecast models are largely consistent regarding its trajectory and landfall location.
• Landfall Area: High probability of the storm's eye making landfall in the South Central region.
• Affected Area: A very wide range of strong winds and heavy rain is anticipated.

Northern Vietnam (North of Vietnam and Hanoi)

• Cold Air Surge: Currently experiencing an intensified cold air mass.
• Weather (First two days of the week): Rainy and cold.
  • Daytime temperatures: 20-21°C.
  • Morning temperatures: Around 18°C.
• Warming Trend (From Thursday onwards):
  • Daytime temperatures: Increasing to 25-27°C.

Specific Incidents and Case Studies

Reservoir Breach in Tuy Phong, Lâm Đồng

• Incident: A reservoir at a farm in Tuy Phong, Lâm Đồng, is suspected to have breached, resulting in one fatality.
• Timing: Occurred on the evening of the previous day.
• Cause: Prolonged heavy rainfall combined with steep terrain and a small drainage system.
• Reservoir Details: Area of 20 hectares, capacity of 900,000 m³.
• Consequences:
  • Four people were swept away by the water. Three were rescued, but one young girl died.
  • 200 households were affected.
  • Significant areas of crops were waterlogged.
  • Some irrigation canals, rural roads, and irrigation works were damaged.
• Regulatory Status: The farm did not have a permit for the water reservoir, according to the Lâm Đồng Department of Agriculture and Rural Development.
• Response: Six working groups have been established to inspect and address the damage.

Dike Breach in Hồ Mong, Thạch Khê, Hà Tĩnh

• Incident: A breach occurred in the dike of Hồ Mong in Thạch Khê, Hà Tĩnh, causing a large volume of water to overflow.
• Timing: Early afternoon of the current day.
• Response: Approximately 100 local residents, militia, and commune police mobilized to reinforce the breached section using soil, sandbags, and heavy machinery to contain the water.
• Reservoir Details: Hồ Mong has a capacity of nearly 20 million m³ of water.
• Current Status: Authorities are monitoring water levels and implementing repair measures to ensure the safety of downstream residents.

Flood Isolation and Rescue Efforts in Hà Tĩnh

• Current Situation (as of 6 PM): Approximately 4600 households in Hà Tĩnh remain isolated by floodwaters.
• Water Levels: Despite reduced rainfall, many areas are still submerged 2-3 meters deep.
• Rescue Operations: Local authorities and units are actively conducting rescue and relief operations.
• Water Receding: It is estimated that floodwaters will fully recede in 2-3 more days, allowing residents to return home.
• Access: Roads leading to Cẩm Bình commune in Hà Tĩnh are submerged 2-3 meters deep, requiring boat travel.
• Impact on Residents:
  • Families like Dương Danh Tuấn's have lost rice, clothing, and other belongings.
  • Residents are facing difficulties cooking due to prolonged isolation and lack of access to food and clean water.
• Relief Efforts: Relief shipments are being delivered to affected areas.
• Hồ Kẻ Gỗ (Kẻ Gỗ Reservoir):
  • Discharge rate has been reduced from 550 m³/s to 300 m³/s.
  • Rainfall has decreased, and floodwaters are expected to recede tonight.
  • Authorities are prioritizing the absolute safety of residents and preventing them from returning home until floodwaters have fully receded.
  • The reservoir operation is being carefully managed to ensure dam safety and minimize downstream flooding.
• Overall Impact in Hà Tĩnh: Residents are accustomed to floods and storms, but the continuous natural disasters over the past three months have made life extremely difficult. Support from various levels of government and sectors is helping residents mitigate losses and regain confidence.

Bridge Collapse in Quảng Ngãi

• Incident: Cầu Cây Sung, a 12-meter long, 5-meter wide, and 4-meter high bridge on the DH05 road in Bình Minh commune, Quảng Ngãi, unexpectedly collapsed due to strong currents.
• Timing: Early morning of the current day.
• Cause: Strong water flow caused erosion at the bridge's foundation, leading to the collapse of one span.
• Consequences:
  • Hundreds of households in Phước An village (316 households, nearly 1300 people) are completely cut off.
  • One resident fell into the water but was fortunately unharmed.
• Response: Local authorities are urgently implementing measures to repair the bridge and ensure resident safety.
  • A temporary bridge is being constructed to restore traffic for motorcycles by the evening of the current day.
  • Efforts are underway to complete a more robust temporary bridge for vehicles by the next day to transport essential supplies and support rescue operations.
• Provincial Directives: Quảng Ngãi province has instructed local authorities to monitor weather forecasts, be prepared to evacuate residents from low-lying and landslide-prone areas, and ensure the safety of lives and property.

Weather in Bắc Bộ and Hanoi

• Current Conditions: Experiencing an intensified cold air mass.
• Forecast:
  • First two days of the week: Rainy and cold, with daytime temperatures around 20-21°C and morning temperatures around 18°C.
  • From Thursday onwards: Warming trend, with daytime temperatures rising to 25-27°C.

Conclusion

The central region of Vietnam is facing a severe and prolonged period of heavy rainfall and flooding, exacerbated by the impending arrival of Typhoon CamI. Multiple records have been broken, and significant risks of flash floods, landslides, and widespread inundation persist. Several incidents, including reservoir and dike breaches, and a bridge collapse, highlight the destructive power of these weather events and the ongoing challenges in rescue and relief efforts. Meanwhile, Northern Vietnam is experiencing a cold snap followed by a warming trend. The situation requires continuous monitoring and proactive measures to ensure the safety and well-being of affected populations.