Dr Tan Cheng Bock on PSP’s position on Trump’s trade war

Key Concepts:

• Tariffs
• Unpredictability of Trump's policies
• ASEAN reaction
• Task force
• Monitoring
• Open options

Analysis of Tariff Impact and Response Strategy

The speaker emphasizes the difficulty in predicting the impact of tariffs due to the unpredictable nature of Trump's policies. The core argument is that a reactive, rather than proactive, approach is necessary.

1. The Unpredictability Factor:

• The speaker highlights Trump's inconsistency, stating, "Trump is so unpredictable so you got to chase him." This unpredictability makes it impossible to formulate a fixed, long-term strategy.
• The speaker cautions against making immediate decisions, saying, "you cannot make a decision straight away oh I want to I also want to increase tariff on them or or how to."

2. Regional Considerations (ASEAN):

• The speaker raises the complexity of regional dynamics, particularly within ASEAN. "What's in Assean if react differently from us we also have a problem." This implies that a coordinated response within ASEAN is crucial, but potentially challenging due to differing national interests.

3. The Need for Expert Consultation:

• The speaker stresses the importance of consulting with experienced individuals involved in international business. "When I talk to them I talk to people who are doing business outside and they caution me said this is what we all should do what your party should do and this is what I want." This suggests a reliance on practical, real-world insights rather than purely theoretical analysis.

4. Monitoring and Information Gathering:

• The speaker advocates for continuous monitoring of the situation. "We have to really monitor carefully." This implies a need for a dedicated system to track policy changes and their effects.
• The speaker supports the establishment of a task force as a positive step. "I think they setting a task force is a good step forward." The task force's role is likely to gather information and analyze potential responses.

5. Avoiding Premature Decisions:

• The speaker reiterates the need to keep options open. "You have to leave the field open." This means avoiding any commitments that could limit flexibility in the future.

6. Acknowledging the Seriousness of the Issue:

• The speaker emphasizes the gravity of the situation. "This is a very difficult problem but a very serious problem." This underscores the potential for significant economic consequences.
• The speaker assures that the issue is being taken seriously. "But we are not taking it lightly you just say that you must monitor."

7. Gradual Response Based on Unfolding Information:

• The speaker suggests a phased approach to policy adjustments. "We will give them the answer as the whole picture unfold itself and it's clearer then we can make what changes we want to do for the country." This indicates a willingness to adapt policies as more information becomes available.

Conclusion:

The speaker advocates for a cautious, reactive approach to tariffs, emphasizing the need for continuous monitoring, expert consultation, and regional coordination within ASEAN. The unpredictability of Trump's policies necessitates flexibility and a willingness to adapt strategies as the situation evolves. The speaker acknowledges the seriousness of the issue and assures that it is being addressed with due diligence.