Doomsday Clock moves closer to midnight than ever

Doomsday Clock 2024: A Summary of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists Announcement

Key Concepts:

• Doomsday Clock: A symbolic representation of the likelihood of a human-caused global catastrophe, maintained since 1947 by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.
• Existential Risks: Threats that could cause human extinction or permanently and drastically curtail humanity’s potential. Currently assessed as nuclear war, climate change, and disruptive technologies (AI, biotechnology, space weaponization).
• New START Treaty: A nuclear arms control treaty between the United States and Russia, set to expire in February 2026.
• Disinformation/Misinformation: The deliberate spread of false or inaccurate information, particularly impacting public trust and democratic processes.
• Synthetic Biology/Mirror Life: The design and construction of new biological parts, devices, and systems, or the creation of life forms with non-natural genetic structures, posing potential biosecurity risks.
• Arms Race Instability: A situation where countries feel compelled to rapidly increase their military capabilities, leading to heightened tensions and increased risk of conflict.

I. Introduction: The Bulletin and its Expanding Scope

The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, founded by scientists from the Manhattan Project, initially focused on the dangers of nuclear war. Recognizing the broader threats to humanity, the Bulletin expanded its scope in 2007 to include climate change. More recently, biological risks and disruptive technologies have been added to its assessment of existential threats, necessitating the Doomsday Clock’s continued relevance. The clock serves as a public communication tool to inform and encourage action regarding these dangers.

II. The 2025 Doomsday Clock: 85 Seconds to Midnight

The Bulletin’s Science and Security Board has set the Doomsday Clock to 85 seconds to midnight – the closest it has ever been. This signifies a worsening global security situation across all assessed threat areas. Unlike previous years where determining the clock’s movement was complex, this year’s decision was clear: no meaningful steps have been taken to reduce risks, and new developments have increased them.

III. Nuclear Threats: A Resurgent Danger

The nuclear threat landscape is deteriorating. Key concerns include:

• Nuclear Arms Race: Global leaders are accelerating the development and modernization of nuclear weapons, with tens of billions of dollars being invested. There’s a renewed willingness to discuss the utility of nuclear weapons – not just as deterrents, but for coercion and even battlefield use (as threatened by Russia and Pakistan).
• New START Treaty Expiration: The last remaining treaty limiting US and Russian strategic nuclear weapons expires in February 2026 with no replacement agreement in sight. This removes a critical constraint on nuclear arsenals, potentially triggering a runaway arms race reminiscent of the Cold War (when 70,000+ weapons existed).
• Nuclear Testing: The possibility of resuming nuclear testing is increasing, further destabilizing the international security environment.
• Arms Race Instability: The current trajectory mirrors the conditions that led to the Cold War arms race, with escalating tensions and a lack of arms control mechanisms.

IV. Climate Change: A Planetary Fever

Climate change continues to worsen, with each year breaking new records for temperature and extreme weather events. The planet’s ecosystems are experiencing a “fever” that is damaging everything. Since the Industrial Revolution, documented temperature increases are now being monitored by satellites, but concerns are rising that monitoring capabilities may be compromised as the climate crisis intensifies. The Bulletin views climate change as an accelerating threat requiring urgent action.

V. Disruptive Technologies: AI, Biotechnology, and Space Weaponization

Beyond nuclear and climate risks, the Bulletin is increasingly concerned about emerging technologies:

• Artificial Intelligence (AI): Large language models can create realistic but fabricated content (photos, videos) used to spread disinformation effectively. Examples cited include instances of former President Trump using such content to mislead the public.
• Space Weaponization: President Trump’s proposed “Golden Dome” – a missile defense system in space – could trigger an arms race in space, potentially leading to conflict.
• Biological Risks: While AI can aid in responding to biological threats, cuts to preparedness activities have reduced overall capacity. The emergence of synthetic biology and “mirror life” pose potentially catastrophic risks if not properly managed. The interconnectedness of global public health means that outbreaks anywhere can quickly become global crises.

VI. The Role of Disinformation and Autocratic Trends

A critical underlying threat is the erosion of trust in information and the rise of autocratic regimes. Maria Ressa, Nobel Peace Prize laureate and CEO of Rappler, emphasized the “information Armageddon” fueled by social media and AI, which undermines shared reality and democratic processes. The spread of disinformation, often for profit, is enabling the rise of illiberal leaders and hindering international cooperation. The increasing number of countries under authoritarian rule (currently 72% globally) exacerbates these risks.

VII. Call to Action and Hopeful Signs

Despite the bleak assessment, the Bulletin emphasizes that the situation is not hopeless. The clock can be turned back, but it requires:

• Public Engagement: Citizens must become informed about the threats and engage in dialogue with their communities and elected officials.
• Political Will: Leaders must prioritize international cooperation and take concrete steps to reduce existential risks.
• Technological Responsibility: Developing and deploying technologies responsibly, with safeguards against misuse.
• Re-engagement: A renewed focus on shared facts and a commitment to truth as the foundation for collective action.

A positive sign is the growing re-engagement of the public in addressing these issues. Past successes in reducing threats have always been driven by public pressure on policymakers.

VIII. Conclusion: Urgency and Agency

The Doomsday Clock is a metaphor for the urgency of the threats facing humanity. While the situation is dire – 85 seconds to midnight – there is still time to act. The Bulletin’s assessment is a call to action, emphasizing that these are human-created problems that can be solved through collective effort, political will, and a commitment to a more sustainable and secure future. The responsibility lies with all of us to demand change and work towards turning back the clock.