Donald Trump trying to apply pressure on Iranians with Truth Social post

Key Concepts

• Strait of Hormuz: A critical maritime chokepoint for global oil transit, accounting for approximately 20% of seaborne oil trade.
• Theocratic Fanaticism: The ideological framework of the Iranian regime, which prioritizes religious vision over traditional economic or national self-interest.
• Strategic Diversification: The use of pipelines (e.g., Saudi Arabia to the Red Sea) to bypass maritime blockades.
• Axis of Cooperation: The geopolitical alliance between Iran, Russia, China, and North Korea, described as a unified front against Western interests.
• Asymmetric Warfare: The use of proxies (e.g., the Houthis) and unconventional tactics to disrupt global trade and challenge superior military powers.

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1. Potential Outcomes for the U.S.-Iran Conflict

Greg Sheridan outlines three primary scenarios regarding Donald Trump’s ultimatum concerning the Strait of Hormuz:

• Escalation: Direct military action by the U.S.
• Withdrawal: A de-escalation or retreat from the current stance.
• Negotiated Deal: A diplomatic resolution.

Sheridan notes that Trump’s history suggests he may extend deadlines rather than immediately execute threats. He argues that the U.S. "American way of war" typically avoids mass civilian casualties, making the targeting of domestic infrastructure (like electricity or desalination plants) unlikely despite aggressive rhetoric.

2. The Iranian Regime’s Internal Dynamics

• Power Structure: Ultimate authority resides with the clerics, who can veto parliamentary decisions based on Islamic law. The Iranian President holds limited influence compared to the Supreme Leader and the Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
• Regime Resilience: The regime is characterized by a high tolerance for internal violence, citing the killing of 30,000–40,000 citizens earlier in the year and the loss of a million lives during the Iran-Iraq War.
• Motivation: Unlike typical state actors, the Iranian leadership is driven by a Shia Islamist theocratic vision and deep-seated animosity toward the U.S. and Israel, potentially rendering traditional economic pressure (sanctions) less effective.

3. Economic and Strategic Realities

• Oil Transit: While the Strait of Hormuz is a major leverage point, Iran is currently allowing a "trickle" of oil to reach markets like Malaysia, India, and Japan to maintain some revenue.
• Revenue Paradox: Despite the conflict, Iran is reportedly earning twice as much daily revenue as before the war because the U.S. has not fully interdicted oil shipments due to global supply shortages.
• Russian/Chinese Involvement: Russia and China are providing material support to Iran, which significantly bolsters the regime’s morale and staying power.

4. The Houthi Factor and Regional Risks

The Houthis represent a significant, unpredictable variable. Despite previous conflicts, they have demonstrated the ability to disrupt Red Sea trade and possess the capability to strike Saudi infrastructure with missiles and drones. This adds a layer of complexity that limits the U.S.'s room for maneuver.

5. Political Constraints and Perspectives

• Public Sentiment: Unlike the Iraq War, which garnered significant public support, the current potential conflict with Iran faces strong opposition from the American public and international allies.
• Contradictory Messaging: Sheridan criticizes Trump’s inconsistent rhetoric—shifting from claiming the Strait of Hormuz is irrelevant to threatening to "bomb them to the stone age"—which complicates international interpretation of U.S. policy.
• The "Big Picture": Sheridan posits that the current conflict should be viewed as a single front in a larger global struggle involving an alliance of China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea.

Notable Quotes

• "These might be the first people he's [Trump] ever come up against who are not motivated by money or self-interest or national interest." — Greg Sheridan, regarding the Iranian leadership.
• "This is more like World War II, one battlefront involving the alliance of China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea." — Greg Sheridan, on the interconnected nature of global geopolitical threats.

Synthesis and Conclusion

The situation remains highly fluid and unpredictable. While the U.S. seeks to pressure the Iranian regime into a deal, the regime’s theocratic nature and the support it receives from Russia and China make it a resilient adversary. The U.S. is constrained by domestic and international public opposition, while Iran is leveraging its control over the Strait of Hormuz and its proxy networks to maintain influence. The ultimate goal of destroying the regime remains a priority for the U.S. and Israel, but the path to achieving this without a catastrophic regional war remains unclear.