Donald Trump cancels ‘negotiations’ in the works with Iran amid killed protesters

Key Concepts

• Iranian Protests & Regime Stability: The ongoing protests in Iran following a violent crackdown by security forces, and the potential for regime change.
• US Intervention in Iran: The possibility of US military or non-military intervention, specifically under the Trump administration.
• Kevin Rudd’s Resignation: The sudden resignation of Australian Ambassador to the US, Kevin Rudd, and its implications for Australian foreign policy, particularly regarding China.
• Australian China Policy: Concerns about the Albanese government’s approach to China, perceived as weak and lacking strategic clarity.
• National Security Establishment Weakening: The concurrent departures of key figures in Australian national security, raising concerns about the country’s preparedness.

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Iran Protests and Potential Regime Change

The discussion centers on the significant protests occurring in Iran, described as the largest challenge to the Islamic Republic since the 1979 revolution. Greg Sheridan characterizes the Iranian regime as “Islamo-Stalinist,” highlighting the security forces’ willingness to kill “thousands and thousands” of protestors. Despite the scale of the unrest, Sheridan expresses skepticism about the regime’s imminent collapse, noting the lack of defections from within the government or disunity among security forces. He points out a historical pattern: “dictatorships often fall not because they’re too rough but when they start to liberalize,” referencing the fall of the Soviet Union and the Shah of Iran.

He acknowledges the surprising stance of Donald Trump, supporting the demonstrators on human rights grounds, calling it a “welcome” development and saluting the “magnificent courage” of the Iranian protestors. However, he remains pessimistic about the regime’s fall, stating, “I very much hope I’m wrong here, but I think the regime looks as though it’s going to hold together.”

US Intervention – Prospects and Limitations

The conversation then shifts to the possibility of US intervention, prompted by Trump’s statements suggesting potential military action, including air strikes (“Help is on its way”). Sheridan acknowledges Trump’s positive interventions in Venezuela and with the strike on Iranian military facilities but doubts the effectiveness of another air strike in materially aiding the protestors. He argues that Iran isn’t “on the brink of collapse” and that even “decapitating the regime” would be temporary, as leaders would be quickly replaced.

He raises a moral concern regarding Trump’s rhetoric, warning against raising expectations of help that may not materialize, referencing the criticisms of “liberal interventionism.” Sheridan suggests non-military options like increased sanctions or “cyber interference with the state security forces of Iran” as more plausible alternatives. He notes the political pressure on Trump to follow through on his “tough talk” if he doesn’t take action.

Kevin Rudd’s Resignation and Australian China Policy

The discussion transitions to the resignation of Kevin Rudd as Australian Ambassador to the US. Sheridan defends Rudd, acknowledging his “mixed grill” personality but emphasizing his expertise on China. He highlights Rudd’s book on Xi Jinping, which portrays the Chinese leader as an ideologue driven by Marxist-Leninist ideology and a desire to expand the power of the Chinese Communist Party.

Sheridan sharply criticizes the Albanese government’s China policy, describing it as having a “marshmallow brain,” being “tactically…swiftness of a stale blancmange,” and possessing “the grip of a kitten with a Valium habit.” He contrasts this with Rudd, whom he equates to “Iron Man, Superman, Captain America all rolled into one.” He argues that the government cannot afford to lose its “one hard head on China policy.”

Weakening of Australian National Security Establishment

Sheridan expresses significant concern over the concurrent departure of Rudd and Andrew Shear, the Director of the Office of National Intelligence, who is moving to Tokyo as ambassador. He emphasizes that these departures represent the loss of “the two most best-informed toughestminded thinkers on China in the Australian national security establishment.”

He criticizes the government’s “anemic defense budget” and “inability to take any action,” further highlighting the perceived weakness in national security. He questions the lack of a replacement for Rudd and points to the government’s decision to remove the heads of ASIO and AIO from routine membership in the National Security Committee of the Cabinet, a practice previously in place. He concludes that the government is “losing its one bit of strength.”

Notable Quotes:

• “Dictatorships often fall not because they’re too rough but when they start to liberalize.” – Greg Sheridan
• “The Albanese government strategically has a marshmallow brain. Tactically, it has all the swiftness of a stale blancmange and it has the grip of a kitten with a Valium habit.” – Greg Sheridan
• “Trump RD compared to those is Iron Man, Superman, uh you know, Captain America all rolled into one.” – Greg Sheridan

Technical Terms:

• Islamo-Stalinist: A term used to describe the Iranian regime, combining elements of Islamic fundamentalism and Stalinist authoritarianism.
• Neoconservative: A political ideology characterized by a strong belief in American exceptionalism and a willingness to use military force to promote democracy abroad.
• Liberal Interventionism: A foreign policy approach advocating for intervention in other countries to promote human rights and democracy.
• ASIO (Australian Security Intelligence Organisation): Australia’s main domestic intelligence agency.
• AIO (Australian Intelligence Organisation): Formerly known as the Defence Intelligence Organisation, responsible for providing all-source intelligence assessment to the Australian Government.

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Synthesis/Conclusion:

The conversation paints a bleak picture of both the situation in Iran and Australia’s national security preparedness. While acknowledging the courage of Iranian protestors and the surprising support from Donald Trump, Sheridan expresses doubt about the imminent collapse of the Iranian regime. He is far more critical of the Australian government, arguing that its weak China policy and the loss of key national security figures represent a significant vulnerability. The discussion underscores the complex interplay between international events, domestic politics, and the challenges of effective foreign policy decision-making. The core takeaway is a sense of concern regarding both the stability of the Iranian regime and Australia’s ability to navigate a rapidly changing geopolitical landscape.