Donald Trump asks Volodymyr Zelenskyy if Ukraine could hit Moscow | DW News

Key Concepts

• Patriot missile systems
• Long-range weapons (e.g., JASSM)
• Layered air defense
• Offensive vs. defensive weaponry
• Strategic vs. symbolic impact
• Russian missile and drone attacks (e.g., Shahed drones)

Patriot Missile Systems and Air Defense

• The US is planning to supply Patriot air defense systems and interceptors to Ukraine. Allegedly 17 systems are going to be delivered.
• Patriot systems are among the most modern air defense systems, capable of intercepting aircraft, ballistic missiles, and cruise missiles.
• They can hit targets around 100 km away and at altitudes of up to 30 km.
• Marina Moran believes that 17 Patriot systems will not substantially change the front lines but may help defend against missiles like the Iskander-M.
• Ukraine will likely prioritize protecting critical infrastructure with these systems.
• Frank Levage notes that Patriot missiles are not effective against drone attacks like those from Shahed drones.
• Patriots will make a difference to the damage being done by other Russian missile attacks, specifically ballistic missiles and hypersonic missiles.
• Levage emphasizes the need for a layered air defense system, including interceptor drones, gun systems, short-range missile systems, passive defenses, and electronic warfare.

Long-Range Weapons and Potential Strikes on Russian Territory

• Donald Trump reportedly asked President Zelensky whether Ukraine would strike deep inside Russian territory if the US provided long-range weapons.
• The Financial Times reported this information, citing people briefed on the discussions.
• Marina Moran suggests this information leak is a form of diplomatic pressure on Russia.
• Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missiles (JASSM) are being discussed as a potential long-range weapon for Ukraine.
• JASSM are cruise missiles that could be fired from F-16 fighter jets, enabling Ukraine to strike far behind enemy lines, including Russian territory.
• Only three countries currently operate JASSM: Australia, Finland, and Poland.
• There are different versions of JASSM, including an extended-range version with a range of approximately 700 km and a standard version with a range of 340-350 km.
• There is speculation that Ukrainian Soviet-era fighter jets could be adapted to carry these missiles.
• Frank Levage states that a single JASSM has a 1000 kilometer range.
• Frank Levage believes that American missiles attacking Russian strategic production facilities around Moscow would be a very significant uplift in Ukraine's capability.
• Levage argues that to make a real strategic difference, Ukraine would need hundreds of such strikes, which is unlikely.
• The delivery of offensive weapons has not been announced although there have been these reports that the president might do so.
• US NATO envoy is saying yesterday that nothing is off the table at this point.

Impact on the Battlefield and Strategic Considerations

• Marina Moran believes that the delivery of Patriot systems alone will not lead to major changes on the battlefield unless other weapon systems and long-range munitions, such as ATACMS for HIMARS systems, are provided.
• Frank Levage believes that the recommencement of plentiful artillery supplies will return them to a position in terms of logistics a little bit like it was earlier in the year before the Trump administration paused these supplies.
• Frank Levage believes that the impact of long-range offensive weaponry would be more symbolic than strategically decisive without a large number of strikes.
• The Ukrainians are struggling with the sheer volume of Russian attacks, but they'll get there.

Russian Attacks and Ukrainian Defense

• Russia has been conducting barrages of missile and drone attacks on Ukraine.
• On the night of the 12th, Russia launched 600 Shahed drones.
• The Ukrainians refer to Shahed drones as "mopeds."
• The Ukrainians are developing gun systems, short-range missile systems, passive defenses, and electronic warfare to counter these attacks.

Conclusion

The discussion revolves around the potential impact of US-supplied weapons on the conflict in Ukraine. While Patriot missile systems will enhance air defense against ballistic and hypersonic missiles, they are not a solution to drone attacks. The possibility of providing long-range weapons like JASSM raises the prospect of Ukrainian strikes on Russian territory, but the strategic impact is debated, with some arguing it would be more symbolic unless deployed on a large scale. The need for a layered air defense system and the importance of continued artillery supplies are also highlighted.