Key Concepts
- Gold & Silver Bull Market: The current upward trend in gold and silver prices, driven by macroeconomic factors.
- Free Cash Flow (FCF): A measure of a company’s financial performance, calculated as cash flow from operations minus capital expenditures. Considered a key metric for valuing mining companies.
- US Bond Market Fragility: The central thesis driving the investment strategy – the potential for the US bond market to lose its “risk-free” status, triggering a flight to safe-haven assets like gold and silver.
- Kicking the Can: A metaphor for delaying addressing fundamental economic problems through short-term fixes.
- Normalization Phase: The stage where mining stock valuations catch up to rising gold and silver prices.
- Mania Phase: The final, speculative phase of a bull market characterized by irrational exuberance and high valuations.
- HUI (Philadelphia Stock Exchange Gold/Silver Index): A benchmark index tracking the performance of gold and silver mining companies.
- Accretive M&A: Mergers and acquisitions that increase earnings per share for the acquiring company.
The Vancouver Resource Investment Conference – Don Jerrett on Gold & Silver
Introduction
This discussion, recorded at the 2026 Vancouver Resource Investment Conference, features Paul Harris of Kitco Mining interviewing Don Jerrett, founder of Gold Stock Data. The conversation centers on the current state of the gold and silver markets, Jerrett’s investment thesis, and his outlook for the coming years. Jerrett emphasizes a long-term, macro-driven approach to investing in precious metals mining stocks.
Gold Stock Data & Investment Philosophy
Don Jerrett created Gold Stock Data out of personal necessity, seeking a comprehensive database of gold and silver producers that didn’t exist at the time. The platform provides investors with lists of stocks, but crucially, Jerrett’s newsletter differs from typical investment advice. He doesn’t recommend specific stocks, instead providing leads and emphasizing the importance of understanding the why behind owning these assets. He states, “I give people lists…these are leads. You go do your own research.” His core belief is that understanding the macroeconomic drivers of gold and silver prices is paramount to successful investing in the space.
Current Market Conditions & Price Targets
As of the interview, gold is trading at $5,000 per ounce and silver at over $100 per ounce. While acknowledging some surprise at the speed of silver’s rise, Jerrett reveals he’s been targeting $100 silver for some time, and is now considering targets of $150 and even $175. His gold target is $6,000. He attributes these price increases not to short-term market dynamics, but to the anticipation of fragility in the US bond market.
The US Bond Market & Macroeconomic Drivers
Jerrett’s central investment thesis revolves around the belief that the US government’s reliance on debt to maintain the standard of living is unsustainable. He views this as a “dangerous game” that will inevitably lead to trouble, benefiting gold as a safe-haven asset. He explains, “The US bond market doesn’t need to fail. All it needs to become is fragile.” He elaborates that the US bond market currently functions as the fundamental “risk-free asset” globally, with trillions of dollars predicated on this assumption. If US Treasuries lose their risk-free status, the resulting uncertainty will drive capital into gold and silver. He dismisses the idea of short-term trading, stating, “I invest for the outcome…we’re investing for the prize.” He defines the “prize” as the fragility of the US bond market.
Investment Strategy & Timing
Jerrett describes his investment approach as a “one-time trade,” waiting for the US bond market to show signs of weakness. He believes the current bull market began in August, triggered by silver reaching $35, and notes the significant 200% increase in silver since then. He emphasizes the importance of free cash flow multiples over traditional price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios, as mining is a capital-intensive industry requiring constant reinvestment. He currently focuses on companies with the potential for “10-bagger” returns.
He outlines a three-phase bull market:
- Normalization: Mining stock valuations catch up to rising gold and silver prices.
- High Valuations: Multiples reach levels seen in previous bull markets (e.g., S&P 500 multiples).
- Mania Phase: Irrational exuberance and extremely high valuations.
Jerrett doesn’t anticipate selling until the mania phase, specifically when stocks like Heckla reach multiples of 25-27. He believes this phase won’t occur until late 2027.
Portfolio Management & M&A Activity
Jerrett maintains a highly diversified portfolio of approximately 160 stocks, though he advises others to hold between 50-80 for a more manageable “ETF-like” approach. He continues to add positions, focusing on companies with 10-bagger potential, and emphasizes buying the buyer in potential mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity. He believes the lack of quality silver developers makes them prime acquisition targets. He states, “I don’t plan to buy very many more shares…the HUI is like almost a 900 here.” He intends to shift from accumulating stocks to strategically selling into strength.
Looking Ahead to 2026
Jerrett is bullish on gold and silver for 2026, predicting continued upward momentum driven by the underlying macroeconomic factors. He anticipates gold remaining above $5,000, with potential for a 100% increase in mining stock values simply to catch up. He acknowledges silver will be more volatile, but believes the overall trend will be upward. He doesn’t expect the mania phase to occur in 2026, but anticipates it in 2027. He cautions that 2027 will be a year for taking profits.
Notable Quote:
“The reason why gold’s at $5,000 is only for one reason and that’s the anticipation of the fragility of the bond market.” – Don Jerrett
Conclusion
Don Jerrett presents a compelling, long-term investment thesis centered on the fragility of the US bond market and the resulting flight to safe-haven assets like gold and silver. His strategy emphasizes identifying undervalued mining companies with strong fundamentals and holding them through a multi-phase bull market, ultimately aiming to capitalize on the eventual mania phase before a cyclical downturn. He stresses the importance of understanding the macroeconomic drivers of the market and avoiding short-term speculation. His outlook for 2026 is optimistic, anticipating continued gains in both gold and silver, but cautions that 2027 will likely be a year for profit-taking.
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