Does the EU now deem the US 'less reliable in terms of security, defence and trade'? • FRANCE 24

Key Concepts

• Greenland acquisition (US interest)
• Diplomatic channels
• Unilateral action
• NATO (Article 5, brain death)
• Transatlantic alliance
• Strategic autonomy (EU)
• Geopolitical fragmentation
• International rules/order
• Spheres of influence
• Militarily non-aligned countries (EU)
• Economic levers
• Red line
• Transactional foreign policy

US Intentions Regarding Greenland and Europe's Immediate Response

The discussion begins with the assertion that President Trump's administration, following the capture of Nicolás Maduro from Venezuela, is explicitly targeting Greenland for acquisition, either through purchase from Denmark or military seizure.

Barry Andrews, an Irish Member of the European Parliament (MEP) from the centrist Renew Europe block, outlines Europe's intended response:

• Diplomatic Engagement: Europe's primary goal is to avoid such an outcome, exercising "every diplomatic channel." Denmark, as the sovereign nation, will lead these efforts, having offered to meet US counterparts (e.g., Marco Rubio) to clarify its position.
• Existing US Military Presence: Andrews highlights that there is already a "substantial US military presence on the island of Greenland." The Danish government is open to discussing expanding this presence if the US genuinely believes its national security is under threat due to insufficient presence. This suggests a diplomatic solution to address US concerns.
• Economic Levers as a Deterrent: Should President Trump proceed with his "threat to expand American territory," the European Union would face a "really really difficult position." While a military confrontation with the United States is "no question," Europe possesses "many many trade and economic levers" that could be used to challenge unilateral US actions.

Implications for NATO and the Transatlantic Alliance

The potential US acquisition of Greenland raises profound questions about the future of NATO and the transatlantic alliance.

• NATO's "Brain Death": Andrews references President Macron's 2017 statement that NATO had "already suffered brain death." He suggests that, even "putting Greenland to one side," serious questions now arise regarding whether "Article 5 still abides and still applies as regards the members of NATO."
• Danish "Red Line": Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen views Trump's potential threat as a "red line" and "obviously an end of NATO," a stance taken "very seriously in Washington."
• Trump's Unpredictable Foreign Policy: Andrews notes that while Trump's interest in Greenland was initially dismissed as a "joke," his administration has a track record of acting on threats, citing examples such as "made good on threats to Iran," "bombed Nigeria," and "kidnapped essentially the president of Venezuela." This "unorthodox," "inconsistent," and "transactional" foreign policy has caught many by surprise.
• EU Solidarity: Andrews affirms that the European Union "will stand shoulder-to-shoulder with the Kingdom of Denmark."

Europe's Strategic Autonomy in a Fragmented World

The interview delves into Europe's broader geopolitical strategy in response to a changing global order.

• Anticipation of US Unreliability: Andrews states that the EU has "anticipated" these events through its "strive for strategic autonomy in security and defense matters." This anticipation stems from the possibility that the United States would become "less reliable in terms of security and defense" and "less reliable as an economic partner," leading to a fragmented geopolitical situation.
• "Lawless World": Andrews previously described the current global environment as an "increasingly lawless world," emphasizing Europe's need to "move rapidly to secure our place."
• Europe's Resilience and Growth: Despite criticisms of Europe's speed in adapting to a "new world order" that feels "almost colonial" with US, China, and Russia establishing "spheres of influence," Andrews defends the EU's resilience. He argues that Europe "expands by invitation" (citing countries like Western Balkans, Moldova, Georgia, Ukraine in the waiting room) and has consistently strengthened through crises, including the 2008 economic crisis, migration crisis, Brexit, Ukraine, and even COVID-19. "Each crisis has strengthened the fabric of the European Union."
• Broadened Strategic Autonomy: The move towards strategic autonomy is not limited to security and defense but also encompasses "trade and in our economy and in our competitiveness agenda."

Macron's Perspective and the Importance of European Unity

French President Emmanuel Macron's recent address to French ambassadors is cited, where he stated: "We are living in a world of great powers with a real temptation to divide the world... The United States is an established power, but one that is gradually turning away from some of its allies. It is breaking international rules that it promoted until recently concerning trade and certain security areas."

• Fragility of Relationships: Andrews finds Macron's comments consistent with the feelings of many countries, underscoring the "fragility of the relationship" with the US. He expresses sympathy for European leaders who must carefully couch their language to "keep the United States on board" due to the crucial role the US plays in finding a "pathway towards peace" in Ukraine.
• Irish Economic Reliance: From an Irish perspective, Andrews acknowledges the country's reliance on good relations with the United States due to hosting many American companies and operating as an "open global trading economy," while still condemning breaches of international law (e.g., Venezuela).
• Strength in Unity: Andrews agrees with Macron that "smaller countries really do have to stick together," noting that "Europe consists of small countries and those countries that don't realize they're small countries." He concludes that the more European nations "stick together, as 27 with the United Kingdom, by the way, and Switzerland and Norway," the better their chances of ensuring their values remain central to global debates concerning Ukraine, Venezuela, and the US-China relationship.

Conclusion

The interview with Barry Andrews paints a picture of a European Union grappling with an unpredictable and increasingly unilateral US foreign policy, exemplified by the potential acquisition of Greenland. While military confrontation is not an option, Europe intends to leverage diplomatic and economic tools. The situation highlights the perceived weakening of NATO and the transatlantic alliance, accelerating the EU's drive towards strategic autonomy across defense, economy, and trade. Despite challenges, Europe is presented as a resilient entity, strengthened by past crises, with unity among its members being paramount to preserving its values and influence in a fragmented, "lawless" world dominated by great powers.