Does the Azerbaijan–Armenia peace pledge lock out Iran and push out Russia? | DW News Desk

Key Concepts

• Azerbaijan-Armenia peace agreement brokered by the US
• "Trump route" for international peace and prosperity
• Geopolitical implications for Iran, Turkey, Russia, and Europe
• Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and ethnic cleansing
• Economic interdependence and regional connectivity
• US and EU influence vs. Russian and Chinese influence
• Internal political dynamics in Armenia and Azerbaijan

1. The Agreement: Basics and Details

• Trump Route: A trilateral declaration signed by the leaders of Armenia, Azerbaijan, and the US establishes the "Trump route" connecting Azerbaijan with its exclave of Nakhchivan through Armenia. The road remains under Armenian sovereignty, but Azerbaijan gets unimpeded access. Technical details are yet to be finalized.
• Peace Agreement: The countries commit to a peace process, re-affirming a pre-signed peace agreement consisting of 17 articles. The agreement states that the countries have no demands from each other, close the chapter of conflict, and establish diplomatic relations. The text was published on Monday evening.
• Bilateral Agreements: Separate agreements were signed between Armenia and the US, and Azerbaijan and the US.
  • Armenia: Agreements focus on strengthening strategic cooperation, advancing technological capacities in AI, and American investments in Armenia's "crossroads of peace" project.
  • Azerbaijan: Agreements involve energy cooperation between SOCAR and ExxonMobil. The US may waive or repeal Section 907 of the Freedom Support Act, which bans US aid to Azerbaijan due to its aggression against Armenians.

2. Historical Context and Motivations

• Post-War Reality: The agreement is seen as a difficult post-war reality following Azerbaijan's 44-day war in 2020 and subsequent military offensives.
• Nagorno-Karabakh: The conflict over the Armenian-populated enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh predates independence and has distorted democracy and economic development in both countries. In September 2023, another Azeri military offensive resulted in the forced exodus of over 100,000 Armenians.
• Desire for Stability: There's a sense that both countries are tired of war and understand that conflict is detrimental to political and economic development.
• Criticism: The Armenian National Committee of America criticized the agreement, stating that it rewards Azerbaijan's aggression and normalizes its ethnic cleansing of Armenians.

3. Perspectives and Reactions

• Ordinary People: Ordinary people have borne the brunt of the conflict, suffering emotional burdens and losses. Reactions in Armenia are cautiously optimistic, with suspicion due to past broken agreements.
• Armenian Concerns: Armenians are concerned that the government is approaching talks from a position of weakness and accepting most of Azerbaijan's demands. There's a lack of trust in the process.
• Azerbaijani Perspective: It's difficult to gauge public sentiment in Azerbaijan due to the lack of independent surveys.
• Azerbaijani Preconditions: Azerbaijan insists that Armenia change its constitution before signing the peace agreement, specifically regarding references to the unification of Soviet Armenia and Soviet Karabakh. Armenia argues that its constitution has no territorial demands and that the peace treaty supersedes any domestic legislation.

4. Geopolitical Implications and Regional Dynamics

• Georgia: Georgia is losing its monopoly status as a transit state. The Georgian government is moving away from the EU and accommodating Russia, potentially undermining regional stability.
• Middle Corridor: The agreement is linked to the "middle corridor," a trade route bypassing Russia and Iran, connecting East Asia to Europe.
• American Role: The US role is seen as driven by President Trump's ego and pursuit of a Nobel Peace Prize, rather than a strategic priority. There are concerns about the lack of international guarantees and investment in durable peace.
• EU Engagement: The EU is expected to play a significant role in solidifying the opportunity for peace, especially as the Trump administration passes the issue to the private sector.
• Russia: Russia's response has been passive, possibly seeing an opening for itself in terms of post-Ukraine influence. Russia may seek to participate in regional infrastructure projects, leveraging its management of the Armenian railway network.
• Iran: Iran's red line (no cutting off Armenia) was satisfied, and Iran is walking away from this agreement quite content and not threatened. Escalation of tension between Iran and Azerbaijan is expected.

5. Outstanding Issues and Challenges

• Prisoners of War: The issue of prisoners of war and detainees remains unresolved, raising questions about Azerbaijan's legal jurisdiction.
• Right of Return: The right of return for Armenians who left their homes in Nagorno-Karabakh is uncertain.
• Cultural Heritage: There are concerns about the ongoing destruction of Armenian cultural monuments in Nagorno-Karabakh.
• Lack of Guarantees: There's a lack of international guarantees for the implementation of the agreements.

6. The American Role and Trump's Motivations

• Trump's Ego: The agreement is seen as driven by Trump's ego and desire for a Nobel Peace Prize.
• Skepticism: There's skepticism about whether this is a priority in terms of US national security.
• Private Sector Involvement: The Trump administration is passing the issue to the private sector, raising concerns about corporate greed and the reliability of corporate investment as a guarantee for security.

7. Russia's Influence and the Future of Armenia

• Declining Influence: Russia's influence in the region is declining due to its failed invasion of Ukraine and its failure to support Armenia in past conflicts.
• EU Engagement: EU engagement in Armenia has increased, providing security assistance and monitoring.
• Armenian Democracy: Armenia is seen as a rare commodity of legitimacy and stability due to its democratic credentials.
• Russian Interference: There are concerns about potential Russian interference in Armenia's upcoming elections.

8. Iran's Perspective and Regional Tensions

• Iran's Red Line: Iran's red line (no cutting off Armenia) was satisfied, and Iran is walking away from this agreement quite content and not threatened.
• Escalating Tensions: Escalation of tension between Iran and Azerbaijan is expected.
• Russia-Iran Relations: Some interpret Iranian reactions as illustrative of Iran's grievances with Russia, which it sees as having abandoned its stance in the region.

9. Quiz Results and Regional Awareness

• Quiz Question: Which country does not share a border with both Armenia and Azerbaijan?
• Correct Answer: Russia
• Low Awareness: The quiz results indicate a lack of awareness about the Caucasus region and its complexities.

10. Notable Quotes

• Ilham Aliyev: "President Trump in six months did miracle."
• Nikol Pashinyan: "I think President Trump deserved to have Nobel Peace Prize and we will defend that and we promote we will promote for that."

11. Synthesis/Conclusion

The Azerbaijan-Armenia peace agreement, brokered by the US, represents a potential step towards de-escalation and regional connectivity. However, significant challenges remain, including unresolved issues from past conflicts, a lack of trust, and the need for international guarantees. The agreement's geopolitical implications are complex, with the US, EU, Russia, Iran, and Turkey all vying for influence. While some see the agreement as a win for the US and a check on Russia and Iran, others are more cautious, emphasizing the need for sustained commitment and addressing past injustices. The future of the region hinges on the implementation of the agreement, the building of economic interdependence, and the ability of Armenia and Azerbaijan to overcome their historical animosity.