Does the AfD have a Trump dilemma? | DW News

Key Concepts

• Souveränität (Sovereignty): The concept of a nation-state having supreme power or authority.
• Regelbasierte Ordnung (Rules-Based Order): A system of international relations based on shared norms, laws, and institutions.
• Sphären der Einfluss (Spheres of Influence): A geographical area where a state exerts significant political, economic, and cultural influence.
• Wildwestmethoden (Wild West Methods): A derogatory term referring to lawless or aggressive tactics.
• Carl Schmitt: A controversial German jurist and political theorist known for his critique of liberalism and advocacy for a strong sovereign power.
• Zölle (Tariffs): Taxes imposed on imported or exported goods.

Germany and the Potential Return of Donald Trump: A Foreign Policy Dilemma for the AfD

The video analyzes the complex position of the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) regarding a potential second presidency of Donald Trump. While outwardly expressing good wishes for Trump (“Wünsche ich Donald Trump als amerikanischen Präsidenten alles Gute und vor allen Dingen Gottes Segen”), the analysis highlights a fundamental tension between the AfD’s ideological alignment with certain aspects of Trump’s foreign policy and the practical implications for Germany.

Trump’s Policy Violations and German Interests

The speaker begins by noting Trump’s perceived breach of a core campaign promise – non-interference in other states (“Er hat gegen ein elementares Wahlversprechen verstoßen und zwar sich nicht in andere Staaten einzumischen”). This is presented as a point Trump needs to address with his own electorate. Furthermore, the speaker explicitly condemns “Wildwestmethoden” (Wild West methods) in international relations. Crucially, the video asserts that higher tariffs (“Im Interesse Deutschland sind nicht höhere Zölle”) and territorial annexation (“Im Interesse Deutschland ist natürlich auch nicht, dass man einfach Statten annektieren kann”) are not in Germany’s interest. Despite these concerns, the speaker emphasizes the need for dialogue and negotiation (“Wir müssen hier schauen, dass man auf einer Gesprächs und Dialogebene Lösungen findet”) to address these issues. The situation is framed within the context of a potential shift away from a “Venezuela carefulen one rules order” – a cautious, rules-based international order.

Ideological Alignment with Carl Schmitt and Rejection of the Rules-Based Order

The AfD’s ideological underpinnings are explored, specifically referencing the controversial political theorist Carl Schmitt. AfD figures have reportedly cited Schmitt, a critic of liberalism who advocated for a world divided into “Sphären der Einfluss” (spheres of influence). This aligns with a growing skepticism within the AfD towards the “Idee der regelbasierten Ordnung” (idea of a rules-based order), which has historically been highly valued in Europe and Germany. The speaker notes this order “hat eben nicht mehr in diesem Maße Gültigkeit” (simply doesn’t have the same validity anymore). This suggests a potential shift towards a more realist, power-based worldview within the party.

Germany’s Role and Internal Challenges

The video questions Germany’s future role (“Welche Roller spielt Deutschland in dieser neuen Weltordnung?”) in a changing global landscape. The stated desire is for Germany to regain a “Führungsrolle” (leadership role) within the European Union. However, the speaker acknowledges significant domestic problems (“Aber im Moment, so ehrlich muss man sich da machen, haben wir große Probleme im eigenen Land”) hindering this ambition. Data is presented indicating limited public concern: only 1% of respondents expressed worry about a return to “the law of the strongest” in geopolitics. The potential negative impact of a trade war on “German jobs” is also highlighted.

AfD Strategy and the Trump Paradox

A leaked 2025 AfD strategy paper is cited, revealing a pragmatic approach: policies should “avoid controversy, minimize risks and expand acceptance.” This internal strategy directly contrasts with the potentially disruptive nature of Trump’s foreign policy, which, the speaker argues, actually reflects many of the AfD’s underlying desires. The core dilemma is that while Trump’s policies align with the AfD’s worldview, they are currently “not what Germans want.” This creates a significant political challenge for the party.

Conclusion

The video concludes that the AfD faces a complex foreign policy dilemma regarding Donald Trump. While ideologically sympathetic to aspects of Trump’s approach, particularly his skepticism towards the established international order, the party must navigate the potential economic and geopolitical consequences for Germany, which are largely unpopular with the German public. The AfD’s internal strategy emphasizes risk aversion, creating a tension between its ideological leanings and its pragmatic political goals.