Does Russia and China's vision present an alternative to the US-led world order? | DW News

Key Concepts

• Systemic Transformation: Realignment of great powers challenging the existing US-led world order.
• Partnership Without Limits: The declaration by Russia and China in 2022, signifying deepened cooperation.
• Axis of Aggressors: Cooperation between China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea to challenge the US and its allies.
• Multi-polar World Order: A world order where power is distributed among multiple centers, potentially diminishing US influence.
• Transactional Alliances: Alliances based on immediate interests rather than shared values.
• Subjects vs. Citizens: A clash of values where authoritarian regimes seek subjects, while democracies value citizens.

China's Diplomatic Might and Growing Partnerships

China is actively demonstrating its diplomatic influence by hosting numerous international events, attracting world leaders like Kim Jong-un and Vladimir Putin. Kim Jong-un's rare visit to China includes attending a military parade. Xi Jinping and Putin held bilateral talks, emphasizing their strengthening partnership. These discussions followed a Shanghai Cooperation Organization meeting, uniting countries aligned with China. Russia and China have reportedly agreed on a deal to construct a second major gas pipeline to China and implement visa-free travel for Russian citizens.

Strengthening Russia-China Partnership

Xi Jinping's state visit to Moscow earlier in the year highlighted the growing bond between the two nations. In 2022, Russia and China declared a "partnership without limits." Western sanctions against Russia, following the invasion of Ukraine, led to Moscow shifting its exports, particularly energy, to China. Trade between the two countries has surged:

• $130 billion in 2021
• $190 billion in 2022
• $240 billion in 2023
• $245 billion last year

Chinese companies have acquired and rebranded Western businesses that exited Russia. This has helped Russia maintain its economy, albeit with increased dependence on Chinese technology and investment. China has benefited by diversifying its markets and creating an alternative trading network. While calling for restraint in Ukraine, China has observed the global response to Russian aggression, potentially informing its own strategies regarding Taiwan.

Unevenness and Alignment: Expert Analysis

Mikuel Alexev, a professor at San Diego State University, highlights that the primary goal of the Russia-China partnership is to present an alternative to the US-led world order, signaling a realignment of great powers. This realignment is seen as a return to a pre-World War II international order.

Alexev notes an imbalance in the relationship, citing the disparity in size between Chinese and Russian border portals as a symbolic representation of China's greater economic and military power. However, there are deep geopolitical and geoeconomic reasons for alignment:

• Russia seeks to maintain its sphere of influence in East Central Europe.
• China aims to establish its sphere of influence in the Pacific.
• Both countries want to limit US influence in their respective regions.
• Energy trade, particularly gas pipelines, drives economic cooperation.

Despite the outward displays of unity, Alexev suggests that tough negotiations and tensions exist, particularly regarding energy prices. The relationship is more of an alignment based on national interests than a deep alliance with shared values like the EU. It is largely transactional, lacking the fundamental underpinnings of community and pooled sovereignty.

Implications for the United States

Alexev identifies two main perspectives in the US regarding the growing Russia-China partnership:

1. Traditional View: Counterbalance and contain China through tougher measures, including enhanced military presence in the Indo-Pacific and increased naval capabilities.
2. Shift in Thinking: Divide spheres of influence and seek cooperation with China, acknowledging Xi Jinping as a potentially good leader.

The Axis of Aggressors: A Serious Threat

Brad Bowman, from the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, emphasizes the serious threat posed by the cooperation between China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea, which he terms the "axis of aggressors." His organization has documented over 600 instances of security cooperation since 2019, including:

• Weapons development
• Weapons proliferation
• Building military capacity, readiness, and resilience

This cooperation extends beyond simple naval exercises and includes strategic coordination and economic integration. Bowman argues that this challenges the long-held US assumption that it would not face two major combat operations simultaneously. He believes the US is not adequately prepared for such a scenario, citing insufficient air force and navy sizes, and a shrinking attack submarine fleet.

The Nightmare Scenario: A Two-Front War

Bowman warns that the US has been acting as if it's 1991 instead of 2025, leading to a need to "play catch-up." He stresses the importance of assuming worst-case scenarios and acting accordingly. He criticizes policies that weaken Western alliances and diminish US foreign assistance, creating vacuums for adversaries to fill.

Bowman highlights that the "multi-polar" world promoted by these nations is essentially a call for the US to "get out of the way" so they can dominate their neighbors. He contrasts this with the rule of law that Europe and the US stand for.

Clash of Values: Subjects vs. Citizens

Bowman argues that the alliances formed by the "axis of aggressors" are not merely transactional but represent a fundamental clash of values. He uses the analogy of "subjects versus citizens," where authoritarian regimes seek to control subjects, while democracies value the consent of the governed. He points to Russia's transfer of submarine quieting technology to China as an example of a decision that degrades Russia's comparative advantage to help China create mischief in the Indo-Pacific, ultimately creating more mischief for Russia in Europe.

Venezuela and the Need for Prudence

Regarding the US naval buildup off the coast of Venezuela, Bowman supports paying better attention to the Western Hemisphere but cautions against starting new conflicts, given the existing challenges in Europe, the Middle East, and the Pacific.

Synthesis/Conclusion

The transcript highlights the growing strategic alignment between China and Russia, driven by shared interests in challenging the US-led world order. While the relationship has elements of imbalance, it represents a significant geopolitical shift with potential implications for US foreign policy and military strategy. Experts warn of the need for the US to strengthen its alliances, increase its military capabilities, and address the underlying clash of values between democratic and authoritarian systems. The potential for a multi-polar world order, dominated by regional powers, poses a serious challenge to the US and its allies, requiring a reassessment of long-held assumptions and a proactive approach to maintaining global stability.