Does Russia actually fear NATO boots on the ground? | DW News

Key Concepts

• Legitimate targets: Putin's statement regarding Western troops in Ukraine.
• Bluster: Egot's assessment of Putin's threat.
• NATO expansion: Russia's perspective on Ukraine's potential membership.
• Infiltration tactic: Russia's new military approach using small groups.
• Drones: Their role in intelligence, targeting, and countermeasures.
• War propaganda: The potential for psychological impact on the battlefield.
• Countermeasures: Ukraine's likely response to the infiltration tactic.

1. Putin's Warning and Egot's Analysis

• Putin's Statement: Vladimir Putin declared that any Western troops deployed to Ukraine would be considered legitimate targets for Russian attacks. This statement followed French President Macron's announcement that 26 countries pledged post-war security guarantees to Ukraine, including a possible international force.
  • Quote: "If some troops appear there, especially now during military operations, we proceed from the fact that these will be legitimate targets for destruction." - Vladimir Putin
• Egot's Rebuttal: Constantine Egot, DW's Russia analyst, dismissed Putin's statement as "bluster." He argued that there are currently no Western troops on the ground and that a strike against them would provoke a "massive backlash" from the West, which Russia wants to avoid.
• NATO Context: Egot refuted Putin's claim that Ukraine was being pulled into NATO, stating that Ukraine has desired NATO membership since the 2008 Bucharest summit.
• Fear of NATO: Egot believes Russia fears NATO troops on the ground because it would strengthen Ukraine's position and signal its integration into the Western world, representing a political and potentially military defeat for Russia.

2. Russian Infiltration Tactic

• New Approach: The report highlights a shift in Russian military tactics, moving away from large tank brigades to smaller, more mobile units.
• "War on Bikes": Russian forces are reportedly using small groups of soldiers, sometimes even lone fighters, on bikes or on foot to advance and take over territory.
• Drone Support: Drones ("little birds" in army jargon) are used for intelligence gathering and targeting, guiding the small groups.
• Countermeasures to Drones: Soldiers are using special coats that mask their body temperature to avoid detection by thermal imaging drones.
• Front Line Conditions: Experts suggest the infiltration tactic is successful because the front line is no longer a clearly defined, continuous fortification strip but rather a defensive zone with gaps and individual fortifications.
• Visual Control: The importance of visual control via drones is emphasized, with Russian breakthroughs occurring where Ukrainian drone surveillance is lacking.

3. Egot's Perspective on the Infiltration Tactic

• Propaganda Warning: Egot cautions that the information about the infiltration tactic comes from Russian state media (TAS and the Ministry of Defense) and should be viewed as potential "war propaganda" aimed at psychological impact.
• Logistical Concerns: Egot questions the sustainability of the tactic, wondering if Russia has enough bikes to replace those lost in combat.
• Drone Countermeasures: While acknowledging that bikes might offer some advantage against drones hunting individual soldiers, Egot believes that advancements in drone technology will quickly lead to effective countermeasures within weeks or months.
• Limited Gains: Egot suggests that the territorial gains achieved by the Russians using this tactic have been minimal.

4. Synthesis/Conclusion

The video presents a two-pronged analysis of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. First, it addresses Putin's warning about Western troops, which is largely dismissed as bluster by the analyst. Second, it examines a new Russian infiltration tactic involving small, mobile units supported by drones. While this tactic may have achieved some local success, the analyst suggests it is likely a temporary measure that Ukraine will soon be able to counter. The overall tone is one of skepticism towards Russian claims and an expectation of continued adaptation and innovation in the ongoing conflict.