Does India play a role in the Pakistan-Afghanistan conflict? | DW News

Key Concepts

• Afghanistan-Pakistan Border Clashes
• Durand Line
• Taliban (Afghan Taliban)
• Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) (implied by "Pakistani Taliban")
• Frontline State
• Big Power Competition
• Cold War/Hot War
• Mediation (Saudi Arabia, Qatar)
• Economic Impact of Border Closures
• Pashtun (Pashons)
• Extremist Force

Introduction: Escalating Border Clashes and Deteriorating Relations The summary begins with a report on Taliban soldiers parading in Host, eastern Afghanistan, following deadly border clashes with Pakistan. These clashes resulted in "dozens dead on both sides," leading to anti-Pakistan protests and a significant downturn in relations between the two former security allies. A Taliban soldier issued a stern warning: "I want other countries to stop attacking our borders and our security forces again. But if they do, our response will be to crush them." Despite this defiance, there was also a call for dialogue, urging "the people and governments of Afghanistan and Pakistan to solve problems by talking, to sit at the negotiation table because these issues are solved through talks."

Economic Impact of Border Closures The immediate aftermath of the violent clashes saw the closure of two major border crossings, stranding "hundreds of trucks" and severely impacting trade. Traders on both sides, Pakistani and Afghan, reported significant financial losses, with one stating, "We're losing money right now. This is the second night we'll have to stay here. We don't even have any food." The closures caused widespread suffering for traders and the general populace, highlighting the economic vulnerability of the region to such conflicts.

Recent Hostilities and Accusations The conflict escalated with Taliban forces attacking Pakistan at multiple points along the border on a Saturday. In retaliation, Pakistan launched its own attacks, claiming to have "captured multiple Afghan checkpoints" and releasing footage purporting to show "scores of Afghan Taliban fighters" killed. The Taliban's foreign minister later stated that Saudi Arabia and Qatar had mediated an end to the weekend's hostilities, though "deep skepticism between the neighbors remains."

Islamabad has consistently accused Kabul of "harboring terrorists" responsible for a "pronounced uptick in violence" within Pakistan, a claim the Taliban government vehemently rejects. Further clashes occurred over the weekend, with both sides trading fire across multiple border regions. An Afghan Taliban spokesperson on X (formerly Twitter) claimed Afghanistan launched a counterattack after "12 people were killed and scores wounded in a Pakistan attack." Concurrently, Pakistani officials reported that "at least six of their paramilitary soldiers have been killed near the Afghan border."

Expert Analysis: Afra Katak's Perspective Afra Katak, a Pakistani politician, former senator, and political analyst with close cultural and linguistic ties to Afghan Pashtuns, provided an in-depth analysis of the situation.

• The Nature of the Border and Conflict: Katak described the situation as "very unfortunate," emphasizing the immense length of the "Durand Line," which is "about 2,400 kilometers long from north to south," making "ceasefire implementation not easy." He noted that it is a "tribal area" where "Pashtuns live on both sides," often becoming "victim of these clashes," alongside government security forces. He attributed the current hostilities to "animosities and hostilities... building for quite some time."

• Historical Context of Taliban and Regional Destabilization: Katak characterized the Taliban as "really an extremist force." He argued that when they were "brought into power through DHA deal" (likely referring to the Doha Agreement), it was "expected that this region is going to get destabilized." He critically pointed out that "unfortunately, they were also supported by Pakistani government, successive governments in the past," and now Pakistan has "discovered that they were supporting the wrong people." He stressed the "injustice to Afghan people, people of Afghanistan who have nothing to do with these wars and who are victims," citing the "bad shape" and mistreatment of Afghan refugees in Pakistan and Iran.

• Big Power Competition and Pakistan's Role: Katak linked the regional instability to "big power competition." He recalled the "cold war between the former Soviet Union and the United States of America and the western countries," where the "hot war was fought on our lands," resulting in "millions of people died in this last 45 years." He warned that "once again there is a cold war between China and the United States and the hot war is again being imposed on our people." He lamented Pakistan's historical role as a "frontline state of the big powers," stating that "our security state has been addicted to this type of frontline state status." He advocated for a policy change, asserting, "Pakistan should not fight wars of other people," and predicted that "as long as this policy continues, I don't see peace returning to this region of Pakistan."

• India's Role: Regarding the timing of the clashes following the Afghan Taliban foreign minister's visit to Delhi, Katak did not believe India was "behind this current clashes." However, he noted that "India is welcoming Taliban" based on the principle that "my enemy's enemy is my friend." He found this "rather ironic" given India's past accusations of Pakistan supporting the Taliban as "terrorists." He suggested India's embrace of the Taliban is to "put pressure on Pakistan" and "antagonize Pakistan," thereby "trying to increase trying to spread this conflict and prolong it," though he reiterated India's lack of direct involvement in the "current exchange of fire" which had been "building up for quite some time."

Conclusion: Main Takeaways The ongoing border clashes between Afghanistan and Pakistan represent a severe deterioration of relations, fueled by historical grievances, accusations of harboring terrorists, and the complex geopolitical landscape. The conflict has immediate and devastating economic consequences, particularly for cross-border trade and the livelihoods of ordinary citizens. Expert analysis highlights the deep-rooted nature of the instability, tracing it back to the Taliban's rise, past regional interventions by major powers, and Pakistan's historical role as a "frontline state." The prospect of lasting peace remains dim as long as these underlying issues, including big power competition and a perceived addiction to a frontline state status, persist. While external actors like India may seek to leverage the situation for their own strategic advantage, the core conflict is driven by internal dynamics and long-standing animosities between the neighbors.