Does ‘America First’ make the US weaker? | The Bottom Line

Key Concepts

• Liberal Internationalism vs. Illiberal Nationalism: The core ideological debate shaping US foreign policy.
• Autocrats vs. Democrats: The global power struggle between authoritarian and democratic systems.
• New Global Disorder: The current state of international relations characterized by shifting power dynamics and challenges to the established order.
• America First: A foreign policy approach prioritizing national interests above international cooperation.
• Multilateralism: The principle of cooperation among multiple countries to address global issues.
• Grand Strategy: A comprehensive plan for a nation's foreign policy and national security.
• Ideological Competition: The rivalry between different political and economic systems.
• Polarization: The division of political attitudes into extreme positions.

Autocrats Ascendant, But Democrats May Prevail Long-Term

Michael McFall, former US Ambassador to Russia, discusses the current global landscape in his new book, "Autocrats Versus Democrats: China, Russia, America, and the New Global Disorder." He asserts that autocrats are currently in the ascendancy, citing the strengthening of China and Russia, and the democratic backsliding in some established democracies, including the United States. However, McFall expresses long-term optimism for the eventual triumph of democracies.

Historical Parallels and Hope for the Future

McFall draws parallels to historical periods of ideological struggle, such as the 1930s when fascism and communism rose, and the 1960s-70s with the spread of Marxist-Leninist regimes. He notes that despite these dark times for liberal internationalism, the Soviet Union eventually collapsed, offering a precedent for the resilience of democratic ideals. He argues that for liberal internationalist ideas to regain prominence, they must be presented in a more sophisticated and nuanced manner, moving beyond outdated notions of the 1990s.

Critiques of Past US Foreign Policy

McFall identifies several key mistakes that have contributed to the current global disorder and squandered American power over the past three decades:

• China's Rise: The US and its companies, driven by the theory that economic modernization would lead to political liberalization in China (a theory dating back to Professor Marty Lipset's 1959 article), failed to anticipate or adequately address China's authoritarian consolidation. American companies and banks profited significantly, sometimes at the expense of American workers, in collaboration with the Chinese Communist Party.
• Russia's Post-Soviet Transition: While the collapse of the Soviet Union was a euphoric period, the US did not provide sufficient economic assistance to Russia during its 1990s depression. McFall, who worked for the National Democratic Institute in Russia at the time, clarifies that their aim was to support Russian democrats, not to overthrow the regime. This lack of support backfired.
• The Iraq War: McFall highlights the Iraq War as a significant overreach and a "staggering level of hypocrisy" in the eyes of the world. The lack of UN Security Council backing and the opposition from allies like France and Germany damaged the US's global reputation. He notes that as ambassador in Moscow, criticism of Russia was often met with the retort, "What about Iraq?"

The Gaza Conflict and US Engagement

Regarding the Israel-Gaza conflict, McFall acknowledges the difficulty of the situation. While he applauds President Biden's efforts to secure hostage releases and end the war, he stresses the need to "win the peace" and not simply walk away after a ceasefire. He reiterates his belief in the importance of US participation in multilateral organizations, criticizing the current administration's tendency to withdraw from agreements, a trend initiated by Trump. He contrasts this with the post-WWII era, when embedding the US in a multilateral system was seen as beneficial for both American interests and global stability. He warns that a "cowboy" approach, while potentially effective against smaller nations, alienates allies and is ineffective against powerful countries like China.

The US-China Relationship: A New Cold War?

McFall believes the US is in a new Cold War with China, but with crucial differences from the Soviet era:

• Intertwined Economies: Unlike the Soviet Union, China's economy is deeply integrated with the global economy. Attempting to isolate China entirely would be a strategic failure.
• Less Intense Ideological Competition: McFall argues that the ideological competition with China is not as intense as it was with the Soviets. He does not see evidence that China aims to make the whole world Marxist-Leninist and autocratic, nor does he believe they possess the capability. This distinction is crucial to avoid overreacting and to identify areas for cooperation.

Revitalizing American Democracy

McFall addresses the alarming decline in American satisfaction with democracy, citing a Gallup poll showing a drop from 61% in 1984 to 34% in 2025. He defends democracy as the "horrible system of government except for all the others tried," emphasizing the need for a viable alternative before declaring it a failure. He identifies several structural changes needed to reduce polarization in the US:

• Campaign Finance Reform: To reduce the influence of billionaires.
• Redistricting Reform: To encourage more competition and move away from primary-driven elections.
• Electoral College Reform: To address polarization and ensure broader participation in presidential elections.
• Media Reform: To combat extreme polarization in media.

However, McFall stresses that the most critical change needed is in leadership. He argues that current leaders thrive on polarization, demonizing opponents. He uses his experience in Montana, a red state where Barack Obama performed well, to illustrate that basic preferences are more moderate than often portrayed. He calls for leaders who will push towards the center and focus on policy debates rather than questioning the democratic rules of the game.

The "Four Horsemen" and the Need for a Center

Referencing Condoleezza Rice's framing of "populism, nativism, isolationism, protectionism" as the "four horsemen of the apocalypse," McFall agrees that these forces are driving a disregard for the broader international system. He advocates for finding common ground on what constitutes American national interest, distinct from partisan interests. He believes a "Goldilocks" approach, a sophisticated and nuanced strategy, is necessary to compete effectively, particularly with China. He criticizes the tendency of US foreign policy elites to talk amongst themselves, excluding the American people, which has created space for populism. His book aims to re-engage in this space and push back against such trends.

Conclusion: A Messy, Unpredictable World

The conversation concludes with a reflection on the post-pandemic world, drawing parallels to the aftermath of the 1918 flu pandemic, which saw a rise in autocracies and isolationism. McFall acknowledges that the current global landscape is "less predictable and way more messy." While he holds out hope for a future where the US re-engages in global projects and works towards a new global order, he admits that this remains uncertain.