Do the Iranian protesters care about Israel's support or Trump's threats? | DW News

Iran Protests & Regional Dynamics: A Detailed Analysis

Key Concepts:

• Iranian Protests (2024): Current wave of demonstrations driven by economic hardship and political discontent.
• Woman, Life, Freedom Uprising (2022): Previous large-scale protests sparked by the death of Mahsa Amini, characterized by demands for systemic change.
• Foreign Interference: Iranian government’s accusation against Western and Israeli powers for instigating unrest.
• US Rhetoric & Policy: Shifting US presidential approaches to Iranian protests, from non-intervention to direct commentary and potential military implications.
• Regional Instability: Increasing tensions involving Israel, Iran, Venezuela, and the broader Middle East.
• Clerical Establishment: The ruling religious authorities in Iran.
• Monroe Doctrine (Updated): US focus on hegemony in the Western Hemisphere.
• Crimes Against Humanity: Allegations of severe human rights violations committed by the Iranian regime during past protests.

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1. Current Protests & Government Response

Iran is currently experiencing its largest protests in several years, fueled by a collapsing currency, high inflation, and widespread public anger over economic conditions and political repression. As of the time of the broadcast, at least 19 people have been killed and 933 arrested in over a week of demonstrations. The Iranian judiciary, under its head, has declared an end to leniency towards “rioters,” signaling a hardening of the government’s response. While President Raisi initially indicated a willingness to engage with protesters, the demonstrations have since escalated and spread. Activists report a brutal crackdown reminiscent of the 2022 “Woman, Life, Freedom” uprising, which a UN fact-finding mission determined involved crimes against humanity.

2. Accusations of Foreign Interference & International Reactions

The Iranian government is actively pushing back against accusations of internal issues, blaming “foreign interference” for inciting unrest. Specifically, they cite statements from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and certain US officials as “incitement to violence, terrorism, and killing.” Netanyahu publicly expressed support for the protesters, while US President Donald Trump issued a warning to Iran’s leadership, threatening a “very hard hit” if protesters are killed, echoing past rhetoric about “red lines” (as seen with Syria under Obama).

3. US Policy & its Impact on Iranian Regime Calculations

Holly Dagris, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute, highlights the novelty of a US president directly commenting on Iranian protests, contrasting it with the Obama administration’s policy of non-intervention in 2009. She notes the complex impact of Trump’s rhetoric: while it may raise the cost of repression for the regime, it also provides ammunition for the government to portray the unrest as externally driven. Dagris points out the skepticism among Iranian protesters regarding US commitment, citing past instances of unfulfilled promises.

4. Regional Dynamics & Potential for Escalation

The situation is further complicated by recent regional events, including the short conflict between Iran and Israel and subsequent US strikes. Dagris suggests the clerical establishment is increasingly concerned about international pressure, particularly following events in Venezuela. Trump’s meeting with Netanyahu, where he expressed support for potential Israeli strikes on Iran’s ballistic missile program, raises the specter of a second war, a possibility even considered by ordinary Iranians. The recent removal of Venezuelan President Maduro by US forces is viewed with concern, prompting speculation about potential US intentions towards Iran.

5. The Venezuelan Precedent & US Priorities

The events in Venezuela, while resulting in the removal of Maduro himself, haven’t toppled the regime. Dagris emphasizes this point, noting the appointment of the Vice President of Venezuela, suggesting a largely symbolic gesture. However, the situation raises concerns that the Trump administration might be considering similar actions regarding Iran. The US administration’s stated priorities – the US first, then the Western Hemisphere – suggest Iran may be lower on the list, potentially leaving it vulnerable.

6. Israel’s Role & Potential for Military Action

Dagris believes Israel is taking the lead in regional actions, potentially with tacit US approval. She suggests Israel’s secondary and treasury goals in a potential conflict would be destabilization of the regime, potentially targeting the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The possibility of a strike by Israel against Iran is considered increasingly likely, with the “leash” potentially being loosened by the US, given the ongoing protests.

7. The Nature of the Iranian Protests & Demands

The protests are not solely driven by economic grievances. While economic hardship is a trigger, the core issues are systemic mismanagement, corruption, and repression. The protests, like the 2022 uprising, are fundamentally anti-regime, with protesters openly calling for the end of the Islamic Republic and demanding a transition to a constitutional assembly and a referendum. Nobel laureate Narges Mohammadi, an Iranian activist, has also stated that reform is “dead.”

8. Key Quotes

• Donald Trump: “If they start killing people like they have in the past, I think they’re going to get hit very hard by the United States.”
• Holly Dagris: “Change must come from the people, not from the outside via bombs.”
• Holly Dagris: “Reform has been dead for years… and it’s not just me saying that but activists like… Iran based Nobel laurate Nargus Muhammadi.”

9. Technical Terms & Concepts

• Crimes Against Humanity: Widespread or systematic attacks against a civilian population, including murder, extermination, enslavement, deportation, and persecution.
• Clerical Establishment: The system of governance in Iran based on Islamic religious leaders.
• Monroe Doctrine: A US foreign policy principle opposing European colonialism in the Americas. The “updated” version refers to a renewed focus on US hegemony in the Western Hemisphere.
• Ballistic Missile Program: Iran’s development of long-range missiles capable of carrying nuclear weapons.

Conclusion:

The situation in Iran is highly volatile, characterized by escalating protests, a repressive government response, and increasing regional tensions. The US administration’s shifting rhetoric and policy, coupled with Israel’s assertive stance, create a dangerous environment with the potential for further escalation. While economic grievances are a catalyst, the protests represent a deeper rejection of the Islamic Republic and a demand for fundamental political change. The future of Iran remains uncertain, with the possibility of internal conflict, external intervention, or a combination of both. The events in Venezuela serve as a cautionary tale, highlighting the complexities of regime change and the potential for unintended consequences.