‘Divide and rule’: Mahmoud Abbas keeps Fatah 'divided', ensuring no potential successor can emerge

Key Concepts

• 8th Fatah Congress: A critical political gathering of the Fatah movement, currently marked by controversy regarding leadership succession and internal consolidation.
• Central Committee: The primary governing body of the Fatah movement; the focus of current efforts to install loyalists.
• Divide and Rule: A political strategy attributed to Mahmoud Abbas to keep the Fatah movement fragmented, preventing any single rival from consolidating enough power to challenge his three-fold leadership (PA, PLO, and Fatah).
• Compliant PA: The Western and Israeli preference for a Palestinian Authority that maintains security and stability over one that is democratically representative.
• Protest Votes: The phenomenon where Hamas gains electoral support not necessarily due to ideological alignment, but as a rejection of the Fatah-led PA’s perceived corruption and ineffectiveness.

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1. The 8th Fatah Congress and Leadership Consolidation

The 8th Congress of the Fatah movement is currently the focal point of intense political maneuvering. President Mahmoud Abbas, who has led the Palestinian Authority (PA) since 2005 without facing elections, is accused of attempting to cement his family’s influence by fast-tracking his 64-year-old son, Yaser Abbas, onto the 18-member Central Committee.

• Objective: Analysts suggest this move is designed to ensure a lasting foothold for the Abbas family and to surround the 90-year-old president with loyalists.
• Criticism: The move is viewed as a "facade of legitimacy" for a leadership that has been reluctant to relinquish power for nearly two decades.

2. Western Policy and the "Compliant" PA

A central argument presented is that the lack of international pressure on Abbas to hold elections stems from a strategic preference for stability over democracy.

• The "Strong Man" Dilemma: Western allies and Israel prioritize a "compliant" PA that provides security and order.
• Strategic Fragmentation: Abbas has deliberately kept Fatah divided to ensure no single individual can simultaneously hold the three key positions he occupies: President of the PA, head of the PLO, and leader of Fatah.
• Risk Assessment: International actors have largely tolerated Abbas’s rule to avoid the potential for a power vacuum that could lead to a Palestinian civil war.

3. The Crisis of Legitimacy and Lack of Alternatives

Fatah, historically the face of the Palestinian struggle, currently faces plummeting popularity due to allegations of corruption and perceived collaboration with the Israeli occupation.

• Civil Society Failure: There is a lack of viable political alternatives. In 2021, when elections were anticipated, the Palestinian left split into 32 separate lists, demonstrating an inability to coalesce around a unified opposition.
• Internal Fatah Dynamics: The movement is split into three or four distinct strands. While there is talk of introducing "fresh blood" to the Central Committee, the current process is expected to favor the "old guard," effectively wasting an opportunity to reform the movement.

4. Hamas and the Electoral Landscape

Despite Hamas’s increased visibility, the prospect of them sweeping to power in the West Bank is considered unlikely by experts.

• Protest Voting: Hamas’s electoral gains are largely attributed to "protest votes" against the PA’s failures rather than widespread ideological support for Hamas’s platform.
• Public Sentiment: There is currently little appetite among Palestinians for armed resistance, given the devastating costs observed in Gaza.
• External Obstruction: The potential for a healthy democratic process is further hindered by:
  • Israeli mass arrest campaigns targeting political rivals.
  • International community restrictions that disqualify various Palestinian factions from participating in elections.

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Synthesis and Conclusion

The current political climate within the Palestinian Authority is defined by a struggle for survival and succession. Mahmoud Abbas’s strategy of maintaining a fragmented Fatah movement has successfully prevented internal challenges but has simultaneously eroded the movement's legitimacy and effectiveness. While the 8th Congress is framed as a pivotal moment, it is widely viewed as a mechanism for further consolidation rather than a path toward democratic renewal. Ultimately, the lack of a unified, viable alternative—compounded by external pressures and the absence of international support for democratic processes—leaves the Palestinian political landscape in a state of deep uncertainty and stagnation.