Diplomacy to end Ukraine war gets bogged down: Europe's leadership vacuum? • FRANCE 24 English

Key Concepts

• Ceasefire and Peace Settlement: The current state of negotiations regarding the conflict in Ukraine, with a ceasefire being a distant prospect and a peace settlement even further away.
• US Diplomatic Efforts: The involvement of the United States in negotiations, particularly with Russia, and its perceived bypassing of European diplomatic channels.
• EU Diplomatic Role: The European Union's current position as a reactive entity in diplomatic efforts, proposing counter-proposals rather than leading initiatives.
• Trump Plan: A proposed plan by Donald Trump for resolving the conflict in Ukraine, which is described as a "wish list" for Putin.
• European Initiative: The call for the EU to take a proactive and leading role in diplomatic negotiations, rather than relying on external actors.
• Peace with Liberty vs. Peace without Liberty: A distinction made between a genuine peace achieved through negotiation from a position of strength versus a capitulation or surrender.
• Hungarian Diplomacy (Viktor Orbán): Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's attempts to position himself as a mediator and negotiator in the conflict, his visits to Moscow, and the criticism he faces.
• European Unity vs. Disunity: The importance of a united European front in addressing the conflict and countering Russian influence, versus the risks of division.
• Frozen Russian Assets: The potential use of frozen Russian assets held in Europe as a leverage for peace negotiations.
• Strategy for Peace: The argument that simply providing more funding to Ukraine without a clear strategy for achieving peace is insufficient and potentially detrimental.
• Realistic Approach to Global Politics: The need for the EU to adopt a pragmatic and interest-driven approach to international relations, moving beyond post-Cold War assumptions.

Summary

The Stalled Peace Process and the EU's Diplomatic Position

The program opens by highlighting the current bleak outlook for a ceasefire or peace settlement in Ukraine. US diplomatic efforts in Moscow have reportedly stalled, with no compromise in sight on fundamental issues, particularly territorial ones. The European Union (EU) is described as playing a relatively minor diplomatic role, primarily reacting to proposals like the "Trump plan" with counter-proposals and organizing meetings of a "coalition of the willing" to support Ukraine.

Critiques of US-Led Negotiations and the Need for European Initiative

Tobias KMA, a German MEP from the Socialists and Democrats, expresses concern over the US negotiating team's approach, particularly their skipping of Brussels to meet directly with Ukrainian negotiators in Florida after talks in Moscow. He describes this as potentially humiliating for Europeans and worries that Europe might be "on the menu" if it's not at the negotiating table. KMA argues that while he would welcome any outcome that brings peace, he doubts the current US strategy will achieve it. He criticizes the US for using a "28-point plan" that he characterizes as "Putin's wish list." KMA emphasizes the critical need for Europe to take the initiative, leverage its strengths, and exert pressure on Russia, rather than passively waiting for external solutions. He likens waiting for Trump to bring peace to waiting for Santa Claus, suggesting a lack of faith in that approach.

Lack of Vision and Competence within EU Leadership

András Lázsló, a Hungarian MEP from the Patriots for Europe group, echoes the sentiment of a lack of European leadership in peace efforts. He attributes this to a "lack of strategy, there's a lack of vision, and there's a lack of competence on behalf of EU institution leaders." Lázsló points out that the EU had three and a half years to propose a peace plan but failed to do so. He notes that even after Donald Trump's election victory, which signaled a potential shift in US strategy towards seeking peace, the EU missed a window of several months to launch its own initiative. Lázsló believes that neither Ursula von der Leyen nor Kaja Kallas are perceived as having the necessary weight to achieve a negotiated peace. He further identifies domestic weakness and instability in key EU member states like France and Germany, countries that previously led negotiations in 2014, as contributing factors to the EU's current "leaderless" state.

The Distinction Between Peace with and without Liberty

KMA elaborates on the concept of achieving "peace with liberty" versus "peace without liberty." He stresses that genuine negotiations require a "position of strength" to compel Putin to the negotiating table and to change his calculus that he is winning the war. KMA suggests leveraging Europe's economic power, including the €200 billion in frozen Russian assets, as a lever for peace. He argues that Europe's economy is ten times larger than Russia's and that this economic strength should be used to negotiate from a position of power, not capitulation.

Viktor Orbán's Diplomacy and European Unity

The discussion shifts to the role of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who has positioned himself as a negotiator. His recent visit to the Kremlin and statements about maintaining cooperation with Russia have drawn criticism. Lázsló defends Orbán's actions, stating that the Hungarian government has offered mediation and hosted peace talks. He recounts Orbán's diplomatic efforts, including visits to Kyiv, Moscow, and Beijing, and his report to EU leaders aimed at initiating negotiations. Lázsló criticizes the response from the new European Parliament and other EU leaders as "ridicule or direct attack." He asserts that Hungary's policy has consistently been that European interest lies in restoring peace as soon as possible. Lázsló criticizes the EU's lack of concrete assessments of sanctions policy and lessons learned from the ongoing war, advocating for a more proactive European approach.

KMA, however, views Orbán's diplomacy differently. He states that while Orbán is free to travel, "nobody's taking him serious with that" because he is perceived as not defending European interests but rather stepping out of them. KMA emphasizes that Europe must understand it is "in this together" and that Putin is engaged in hybrid warfare, including attacks on European cities and interference in elections. He argues that Putin fears the EU as a successful liberal democracy, which undermines his own government. KMA calls for Orbán to contribute to European unity rather than disunity, stressing that European safety is interdependent.

The Issue of Frozen Russian Assets and Funding for Ukraine

The program touches upon the issue of frozen Russian assets held in Euroclear in Belgium. Lázsló questions the EU's proposal for additional funding for Ukraine, such as the €135 billion mentioned, especially in light of corruption scandals in Ukraine. He argues that more funding without a strategy for peace is merely "kicking the can down the road" and exacerbating Europe's debt crisis. Lázsló criticizes a prevailing "mentality" that assumes liberal democracy has won and will bring universal peace and prosperity, stating that this has failed. He advocates for a more realistic approach to global politics and power relations, with the EU prioritizing its own interests, which he defines as peace in Europe as soon as possible.

Conclusion

The discussion concludes with a reiteration of the need for a European-led peace initiative, a clear strategy for achieving peace, and a realistic assessment of global power dynamics. The differing perspectives on Viktor Orbán's diplomatic role highlight the internal debates within the EU regarding its approach to the conflict and its relationship with Russia. The program underscores the urgency for Europe to assert its agency and pursue its own interests in seeking a resolution to the war in Ukraine.