Despite ongoing negotiations, how likely is it that the US will attack Iran? | DW News

Key Concepts

• JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action): The 2015 nuclear agreement between Iran and world powers, from which the US withdrew under President Trump.
• Enrichment: The process of increasing the concentration of fissile isotopes in uranium, a key step in nuclear weapon development.
• Escalation: A significant increase in the intensity or scope of a conflict.
• Regime Change: The overthrow of a government and its replacement with a new one.
• Military Buildup: The increase in the amount of military personnel and equipment in a region.

US-Iran Tensions: A Critical Juncture

The latest round of indirect talks between the US and Iran regarding Iran’s nuclear program concluded without an agreement, though mediators report “significant progress.” Further negotiations are scheduled for Vienna next week, framed as a potential last chance to prevent US military action against Iran. This situation is unfolding against a backdrop of escalating tensions and a substantial US military buildup in the Middle East – the largest since the 2003 invasion of Iraq.

Military Posturing & Regional Buildup

The USS Gerald Ford aircraft carrier recently departed Crete, heading towards the Middle East. The US has deployed numerous warships near Iranian waters, including the USS Abraham Lincoln (confirmed via Reuters analysis of satellite imagery) off the coast of Oman, and maintains a network of military bases hosting aircraft in the region. This deployment is described as a significant show of force.

US Accusations & Iranian Response

President Trump, in his State of the Union address, asserted that Iran has already developed missiles capable of threatening Europe and US bases, and is actively working on missiles that could reach the United States. He referenced “After Midnight Hammer,” a warning issued to Iran to cease its weapons program, claiming they have disregarded it.

Iranian President Massud Peshkan maintains that Iran is not pursuing nuclear weapons. However, Foreign Minister Abasar stated Iran is willing to engage in dialogue but will not relinquish its “right for peaceful use of nuclear technology.” He emphasized, “We are ready to answer questions. We are ready to remove concerns, but we are not ready to give up our right for peaceful use of nuclear technology. This is what we demand.” Iran has also warned of escalation should the US initiate an attack. Footage of Iranian military drills was broadcast on state television, interpreted as a direct warning to Washington.

Domestic & International Considerations

US Public Opinion & Congressional Debate

Despite the military buildup, domestic support for a US attack on Iran is limited, with recent polls indicating only 27% of Americans favor military action. A Congressional debate is scheduled to potentially limit President Trump’s authority to initiate an attack. This internal debate is complicated by Trump’s previous promise to end “America’s forever wars.” Author and journalist Renee Vil Angul notes this creates a dilemma for Trump: “He’s gone far, assembled all this military might, but he’s also um resisting facing some resistance at home. So what is the way forward to him to declare victory as he usually wants to do?”

The JCPOA & Broader Negotiations

Negotiations are focused on the nuclear program, with discussions reportedly going further than previous talks regarding enrichment processes. However, the 2015 JCPOA, which Trump withdrew from, provided a level of transparency regarding Iran’s nuclear activities. Vil Angul points out that Trump is now raising issues beyond the nuclear program, including Iran’s ballistic missile program and potential regime change. He argues that even an agreement on the nuclear issue is unlikely to satisfy Trump’s broader demands and won’t necessarily prevent military escalation: “even if there is an agreement on nuclear on the nuclear agreement, I cannot see how that would satisfy um Trump’s claims that go much further than this. And I don't think such an agreement would settle the prospect of a military escalation.”

Allegations of Regime Change Plots & Internal Iranian Dynamics

Reports from the French newspaper Le Figaro suggest plans earlier this year to overthrow Iran’s Supreme Leader. This follows a brutal crackdown on Iranian protesters, with estimates suggesting up to 10,000 people were killed. Vil Angul notes that speculation about regime change is not new, referencing previous escalations in 2019. While Iranians desire change and an end to repression, he believes military intervention is unlikely to achieve this: “I think Iranians don't want to see military escalation. They want a change. They want an end of this repression. But uh I think they want to achieve it through different means.”

Expert Perspective: Renee Vil Angul

Renee Vil Angul, a Middle East expert, highlights the contradictory nature of the situation. The massive military buildup suggests a potential attack, but domestic opposition and Trump’s own political considerations create uncertainty. He emphasizes the complexity of the negotiations, noting that Trump’s demands extend far beyond the scope of the JCPOA. He also cautions against the potential consequences of regime change efforts, suggesting they could be counterproductive and fail to address the underlying desires of the Iranian people.

Conclusion

The situation between the US and Iran remains highly volatile. While negotiations continue, the substantial US military presence in the region and President Trump’s rhetoric raise the risk of escalation. Domestic political considerations within the US, coupled with Iran’s firm stance on its nuclear rights and warnings of retaliation, create a complex and dangerous dynamic. A resolution will require navigating these competing interests and addressing the broader concerns beyond the nuclear program, a task that appears increasingly challenging.