Danger in the Baltics: The threat from Russia | DW Reporter

Key Concepts

• Hybrid Warfare: A military strategy that blends conventional warfare, irregular warfare, and cyber warfare.
• NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization): A military alliance of 32 member states.
• Russian Exclave: A territory of a country that is geographically separated from the main part of the country.
• Nais Kodukaitse (NKK): Estonian Women's Home Guard.
• Kaitse Liit: Estonian Defense League.
• Border Reinforcement: Increasing security measures and military presence along a national border.
• Migrant Smuggling: The illegal facilitation of the entry of migrants into a country.
• Multinational Combat Unit: A military unit composed of soldiers from different countries.

Baltic Residents' Experiences on the Border with Russia

This summary details the experiences of three individuals living in the Baltic states – Lithuania, Estonia, and Latvia – who reside near the border with Russia and its ally, Belarus. The transcript highlights their concerns about the changing security landscape due to Russia's aggressive posture, particularly in light of the war in Ukraine, and their personal coping mechanisms and perspectives on the future.

1. Latvian Farmer's Concerns and Resilience

Main Topics and Key Points:

• Anjace Pkovich, a farmer in Tranquil Indra, eastern Latvia, cultivates vegetables on a vast area (equivalent to 400 soccer fields).
• Indra is located just 5 km from the border with Belarus, Russia's closest ally in the war against Ukraine.
• The once peaceful atmosphere has been disrupted by increased military presence and border reinforcement.
• Specific Detail: Tens of thousands of migrants have attempted to enter Latvia illegally in the last three years.
• Key Argument: Western intelligence agencies warn that Moscow is deliberately sending migrants from Afghanistan and African countries via Belarus to destabilize Europe, employing human smuggling as a tool in its "hybrid war."
• Quote: "Of course, I'm worried. Who knows what else the Russians might come up with, what part of the world they still need to finally be satisfied. That's why I'm concerned about the future. And that's why I support strengthening the borders so I can feel at least a little bit safer. And feel safe harvesting the last potatoes."
• Future Plans: Despite the geopolitical tensions, Anjace plans to open a brewery in Indra to attract more tourists, demonstrating a commitment to the region's future and a desire to focus on the positive.

2. Lithuanian Kebab Shop Owner and NATO Presence

Main Topics and Key Points:

• Birut Krakaskina, a trained teacher, runs a successful kebab shop in Rukla, Lithuania, for four years.
• Her shop's success is attributed to fresh ingredients, large portions, and a "secret ingredient" of love and enjoyment in making the food.
• Key Detail: Birut's primary customers are soldiers from the nearby Lithuanian Army's largest military base in Rukla.
• Geopolitical Context: Lithuania is a Baltic NATO member bordering Belarus to the east and south, and the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad to the west.
• NATO's Role: Rukla hosts a multinational combat unit led by Germany since 2017. Germany plans to station an entire brigade of 5,000 troops by 2027 to defend Lithuania.
• Perspective: Birut acknowledges the potential for conflict, stating, "If war breaks out, things will get really messy here. This military base would be one of the enemy's top targets." However, she also finds comfort in the presence of NATO forces: "On the other hand, we've got someone right on our doorstep to defend us."
• Coping Mechanism: Birut and her family have an escape plan, considering moving to where her parents live if necessary.
• Quote: "And as far as my business goes, Lithuanian and foreign soldiers are already our best customers." and "Of course, we can't rule out war anymore. We talk to the soldiers all the time. We want them to support us, encourage us. and tell us that war will never break out here. But as the saying goes, if you want peace, you have to prepare for war."
• Personal Wish: Birut expresses a deep desire for peace, not just in Lithuania but everywhere, and for her daughters to travel freely and experience kindness and goodwill.

3. Estonian Women's Home Guard Member and Island Defense

Main Topics and Key Points:

• Aunro, a speech therapist from Hi Island, Estonia, experiences a changed sense of security despite outward normalcy.
• Strategic Importance: Hioma Island is strategically important for Russia as Russian ships pass by it en route to and from St. Petersburg and Kaliningrad.
• Personal Action: Three years ago, Aunro joined the Nais Kodukaitse (NKK), the Estonian Women's Home Guard, which is part of the voluntary Estonian Defense League (Kaitse Liit).
• Historical Context: The NKK was founded in 1927, banned during the Soviet era, and revived after Estonia regained independence in 1991.
• Role of Civilians: The NKK aims to reinforce Estonia's regular armed forces with armed and trained civilians in the event of a war with Russia.
• Aunro's Focus: While she has held a weapon, Aunro intends to focus more on preparing and conducting evacuations, stating, "I'm not a fighter by nature."
• Security Threats: The transcript mentions repeated violations of NATO airspace by Russian fighter jets and suspected jamming of navigation systems of Western aircraft, potentially coordinated from Kaliningrad, where nuclear-capable missiles are believed to be stored.
• Quote: "Life here will probably never be the way we once knew it. On the surface, many things are continuing as they always have, but the underlying feeling has changed, and that's also affected me personally."
• Commitment to Home: Despite the dangers, Aunro expresses a strong attachment to her island: "Hi is a special place because it's just so beautiful and peaceful and that's how it should stay."

Synthesis and Conclusion

The transcript vividly illustrates the palpable sense of unease and altered reality experienced by ordinary citizens in the Baltic states bordering Russia. While life continues with daily routines like farming, running businesses, and attending festivals, the underlying geopolitical tensions have significantly impacted their sense of security. The increased military presence, concerns about hybrid warfare tactics like migrant smuggling, and the proximity to potential conflict zones are constant reminders of the precarious situation.

The individuals featured – Anjace, Birut, and Aunro – represent different approaches to coping with these challenges. Anjace focuses on building a future for his community through business and a positive outlook. Birut finds solace and economic stability in the presence of NATO forces while also preparing for the worst. Aunro actively contributes to national defense through civilian volunteerism, demonstrating a commitment to her homeland despite personal apprehension.

The overarching message is that while the Baltic region is on the front lines of potential conflict, its residents are not passively awaiting events. They are actively engaged in their communities, contributing to their economies, and participating in defense efforts, all while holding onto a deep-seated desire for peace and a better future for themselves and their children. The transcript underscores the critical role of NATO in providing a sense of security, even as the threat landscape evolves. The need for protection from their "aggressive neighbor to the east" has, as the transcript concludes, "never been greater."