Cyberattacks, sabotage, drones - Is Germany ready for war? | DW Documentary

Key Concepts

• Zeitenwende (Turning Point): Germany’s shift in security policy following the war in Ukraine, emphasizing increased defense spending and a more assertive role in security.
• Bundeswehr (German Armed Forces): The focus of modernization and preparation for potential conflict, particularly in the context of a changed geopolitical landscape.
• Hybrid Warfare: Russia’s strategy of utilizing non-military tactics (cyberattacks, sabotage, disinformation) alongside conventional military pressure.
• Deterrence: The strategy of building military strength to discourage potential adversaries from attacking.
• War Readiness (Kriegstüchtigkeit): The goal of achieving a state of preparedness for potential armed conflict by 2029, a key term reintroduced by General Buoya.
• NATO Cohesion: The importance of maintaining unity within the NATO alliance as a deterrent against Russian aggression.
• Gray Zone Conflict: Operating below the threshold of traditional warfare, utilizing ambiguity and deniability to destabilize opponents.

Germany on Edge: Preparing for a New Era of Conflict

The documentary follows General Carsten Buoya, Inspector General of the German Armed Forces (Bundeswehr), over nine months as he navigates a rapidly changing security landscape. The central theme is Germany’s shift from decades of relative peace to a new era of potential conflict, primarily driven by perceived threats from Russia. This shift, termed Zeitenwende (turning point), involves a significant re-evaluation of defense policy and a push for increased military readiness.

The Shifting Geopolitical Landscape & Russia as the Primary Threat

The film establishes a context of increasing global instability. The narrative highlights the interconnectedness of conflicts – soldiers from North Korea fighting in Ukraine, weapon flows, and Russia’s influence in the Middle East. The primary threat is consistently identified as Russia, described as engaging in a “revisionist” and “imperialist” strategy aimed at shifting borders and expanding its sphere of influence. This is not viewed as a conventional war scenario, but rather a continuous state of conflict, a “hybrid state” where Germany is “no longer fully at peace, but not yet fully at war.” Intelligence suggests Russia could be in a position to attack NATO within a few years, specifically by 2029, prompting the call for Germany to be “war ready” (kriegstüchtig) by that date. This date isn’t presented as a definitive prediction, but as a “focus state” to drive preparation.

Buoya’s Role: Bridging Politics and the Military

General Buoya is portrayed as a crucial figure bridging the gap between political decision-making and the operational realities faced by the Bundeswehr. He is described as the “most important advisor” to the Defense Minister, responsible for setting priorities and ultimately “protecting lives.” The film emphasizes the delicate balance he must maintain, navigating political constraints while advocating for necessary military preparations. He is shown receiving daily security briefings detailing escalating conflicts, sabotage attempts within Germany (drone incidents, bomb threats, sabotage on warships), and espionage concerns. Russia is specifically identified as operating in a “gray zone,” exploiting the difficulties Western states face in responding to ambiguous attacks.

Missions and Modernization: From Lebanon to Lithuania

The documentary showcases the Bundeswehr’s involvement in both peaceful missions and preparations for potential conflict. Buoya’s visit to German soldiers stationed in southern Lebanon, near the Israeli border, demonstrates the Bundeswehr’s participation in UN peacekeeping operations. However, the focus quickly shifts to the preparations for a potential high-intensity conflict with Russia. A key element of this preparation is the deployment of a German brigade (approximately 5,000 soldiers) to Lithuania, a country bordering Russia’s ally, Belarus. This deployment is presented as a significant signal of deterrence, intended to demonstrate NATO’s resolve. The film highlights the challenges of modernizing the Bundeswehr, including procurement issues and the need to balance readiness with supporting Ukraine.

The Ukrainian Front: Support and Lessons Learned

Germany’s support for Ukraine is a recurring theme. Buoya visits Ukraine, inspecting German-supplied air defense systems (Geopard tanks) and meeting with Ukrainian soldiers. The visit underscores the importance of providing Ukraine with the resources it needs to defend itself, not only for Ukraine’s sake but also to deter further Russian aggression. The film emphasizes the lessons learned from the conflict in Ukraine, particularly the need for robust air defense capabilities and the importance of sustained military support. Buoya notes that Germany has been providing more than just decommissioned equipment, making a “strategic decision” to support Ukraine’s defense.

Transatlantic Relations and the US Factor

The documentary highlights growing concerns about the reliability of the United States as a security partner, particularly in light of potential changes in US foreign policy. The firing of Buoya’s American counterpart, General Brown, is presented as a sign of increasing tension. The film features commentary from the Munich Security Conference, where concerns are raised about the potential for the US to withdraw from European security commitments. The message is clear: Europe, and Germany in particular, must take greater responsibility for its own defense, regardless of US policy. Vice President Vance’s speech at the conference, emphasizing internal threats to European values, further underscores this concern.

Public Perception and the “War Readiness” Debate

The introduction of the term “war readiness” (kriegstüchtig) by Buoya and Defense Minister Pistorius is presented as a deliberate attempt to shock the German public and raise awareness of the growing security threats. While the term initially drew criticism, it ultimately succeeded in sparking a national debate about Germany’s defense posture. Buoya acknowledges the need to communicate effectively with the public, emphasizing that while the threat is real, it is not insurmountable. He stresses the importance of public support for increased defense spending and a more assertive security policy. He also recognizes the inherent tension in a liberal democracy, acknowledging the need for debate and skepticism.

The Path Forward: Deterrence and Dialogue

The film concludes with Buoya emphasizing the importance of deterrence through military strength, while also acknowledging the need for dialogue. He argues that a position of strength is essential for effective diplomacy. The final scenes depict ongoing security incidents – drone sightings, cyberattacks, and airspace violations – underscoring the continued threat posed by Russia. The documentary leaves the audience with a sense of urgency and a recognition that Germany is entering a new and uncertain era.

Notable Quotes:

• General Buoya: “We have to be war ready by 2029. We must assume that we could be attacked in that year.”
• Defense Minister Pistorius: “We need to be war ready by 2029. We must become war ready. We have to become war ready.”
• General Buoya: “Russia operates in that gray zone. They’re fully aware that for Western states, reacting is so difficult.”
• NATO Official: “Russia is hard at work to try to weaken our democracies and chip away at our freedom. It's time to shift to a wartime mindset.”
• General Buoya: “We can only argue from a position of strength and that we’ll only be listened to in that position of strength.”

Technical Terms:

• Bundeswehr: The unified armed forces of Germany.
• Zeitenwende: A turning point or paradigm shift.
• Kriegstüchtigkeit: War readiness; the state of being prepared for armed conflict.
• Hybrid Warfare: The use of a combination of conventional and unconventional warfare tactics.
• Deterrence: The strategy of discouraging an attack by threatening retaliation.
• NATO: North Atlantic Treaty Organization, a military alliance of North American and European countries.

Logical Connections:

The documentary builds a logical argument, starting with the observation of increased global instability and culminating in the need for Germany to re-evaluate its defense policy. The film connects Russia’s actions in Ukraine and elsewhere to the broader threat to European security, justifying the call for increased military readiness. The visits to Lebanon, Lithuania, and Ukraine serve as concrete examples of the challenges and opportunities facing the Bundeswehr. The discussions with US officials highlight the importance of transatlantic relations and the need for Europe to take greater responsibility for its own defense.

Data and Research Findings:

• The film references intelligence suggesting Russia could be in a position to attack NATO by 2029. (Specific details are classified).
• Germany is one of Ukraine’s largest military supporters.
• The deployment of a German brigade of 5,000 soldiers to Lithuania.
• Increased incidents of sabotage, drone sightings, and cyberattacks attributed to Russia.

Conclusion:

The documentary paints a stark picture of a Europe facing a renewed threat from Russia. It highlights Germany’s difficult transition from a nation focused on economic prosperity to one grappling with the realities of geopolitical competition. The film underscores the importance of military preparedness, transatlantic cooperation, and public awareness in navigating this new era of uncertainty. The central takeaway is that Germany must embrace a more assertive role in its own defense and contribute to the collective security of Europe, even if it means confronting uncomfortable truths and challenging long-held assumptions.