Cuba on the brinkーNHK WORLD-JAPAN NEWS

Key Concepts

• Economic Sanctions: The U.S. administration's policy of cutting off oil supplies from Venezuela to pressure the Cuban government.
• Energy Crisis: The direct result of fuel shortages leading to power outages and infrastructure failure.
• Patron Substitution: A historical geopolitical concept where Cuba relies on a foreign benefactor for economic survival; experts argue this is no longer viable.
• Cuban Diaspora: The community of approximately 1.5 million Cuban-Americans in Florida, particularly in "Little Havana," who influence and react to U.S.-Cuba policy.
• Systemic Collapse: The theory that the current economic pressure may lead to the internal disintegration of the Cuban government.

1. The Economic and Humanitarian Crisis in Cuba

The report highlights a severe deterioration of daily life in Havana, driven by the Trump administration’s decision to sever the flow of oil from Venezuela, a key ally.

• Infrastructure Failure: Fuel shortages have led to frequent, widespread power outages, leaving parts of the city in darkness.
• Public Services: Waste collection has been disrupted, forcing citizens to burn trash in the streets.
• Inflation and Poverty: Basic goods have become unaffordable. For example, the cost of a single liter of cooking oil now equals the total monthly government pension of some citizens, such as Herardo Mao, a former factory worker.
• Social Impact: The elderly population is particularly vulnerable, facing rising costs of living and a lack of access to essential medical procedures.

2. Perspectives from the Cuban Diaspora

In Miami, Florida, the Cuban-American community—numbering roughly 1.5 million—is divided between hope for the future and concern for the current suffering of their compatriots.

• The Desire for Return: Many Cuban-Americans express a strong desire to return to their homeland, viewing the current crisis as a potential "period of transition" that could lead to freedom.
• The Dilemma of Change: While many support the U.S. hardline stance, there is an acknowledgment of the extreme difficulty ordinary Cubans face. Jose Hernandez, a prominent figure in the community, notes that while he supports the pressure, the path to change is "very challenging" and requires a near-miraculous effort to succeed.

3. Expert Analysis and Geopolitical Frameworks

Experts at Florida International University (FIU) have analyzed the sustainability of the current Cuban regime.

• The End of Patronage: Historically, Cuba has survived by finding new "patrons" (foreign powers) to subsidize its economy. Experts argue that "substitution appears implausible" in the current global climate.
• Internal Collapse: The prevailing theory among some analysts is that because no other nation is willing to "pick up the tab" to support the Cuban economy, the government may face a collapse from within due to the mounting pressure.

4. Notable Quotes

• Herardo Mao: "We don't have enough to survive because prices are rising every day."
• Expert at FIU: "Cuba has always survived by substituting patrons. This time... substitution appears implausible."
• Jose Hernandez: "It has to be like God's hand to make that thing work. It will work. Don't take me wrong. And I'm never pessimistic, but it's very challenging."

5. Synthesis and Conclusion

The situation in Cuba represents a critical juncture in U.S.-Cuba relations. By targeting the country's energy lifeline, the U.S. administration has successfully induced a severe economic crisis that has crippled public services and impoverished the citizenry. While the Cuban government has begun to show signs of easing resistance and opening a dialogue with Washington, they face a binary choice: succumb to the mounting pressure and demands for fundamental change, or risk total internal collapse. The future remains uncertain, with the diaspora watching closely as the country navigates what many believe is an inevitable, albeit painful, transition.