Cuba oil crisis: What is Donald Trump's endgame? • FRANCE 24 English

Cuba Under Pressure: A Deep Dive into US Policy and its Consequences

Key Concepts:

• Embargo: A government order restricting trade with a specific country. In this case, the US embargo against Cuba.
• Regime Change: The overthrow of a government and its replacement with a new one.
• Exiles: People forced to live outside their native country, often due to political or economic reasons.
• Paladares: Privately owned, independent restaurants in Cuba, often operating out of people’s homes.
• Shadow Fleet: Vessels used to circumvent sanctions by obscuring ownership and origin of goods.
• Martial Law: The temporary imposition of military rule over a civilian population, usually during a crisis.
• Outmigration: The emigration of people from a particular country or area.

I. The Dual Strategy Targeting Cuba

The current US approach to Cuba is driven by two distinct forces. Firstly, Donald Trump aims to demonstrate US influence throughout the Americas, exhibiting a pattern of assertive, sometimes bellicose, behavior towards various nations including Greenland, Canada, Cuba, and Mexico. Secondly, and more specifically, Marco Rubio is pursuing a long-held strategy of advocating for “democratic change” and potential “regime change” in Cuba. This is being enacted through intensified pressure on the Cuban government, effectively creating a “total stranglehold” on the island’s economy, exacerbated by the control of Venezuela’s exports.

II. Assessing the Likelihood of Success & Internal Weaknesses

The speaker expresses skepticism regarding the success of Rubio’s plan, citing significant “short-sightedness.” A key obstacle is the lack of a viable opposition within Cuba capable of filling a potential power vacuum. Unlike Venezuela, Cuba lacks a strong “opposition in exile.” Furthermore, the Cuban government has historically demonstrated resilience in weathering economic pressure from the US, having developed strategies to mitigate the impact of embargoes, notably during the 1990s under Bill Clinton when the embargo was tightened to its maximum capacity.

A critical demographic factor is the mass exodus from Cuba. Since the end of 2021, nearly 2 million people have left, resulting in over 2 million Cuban exiles residing in the US. Rubio’s calculation appears to be that destabilizing the Cuban government could secure electoral victories in Florida, but this overlooks the complexities of filling a power vacuum and managing a potential humanitarian crisis.

III. Cuba’s External Relationships & Potential Lifelines

The speaker emphasizes the need for international assistance to Cuba, not necessarily in the form of direct foreign aid, but through maintaining and expanding trade relationships. Mexico, Canada, France, and Italy have historically done so despite the US embargo.

Regarding Russia, the possibility of increased energy shipments exists, but is fraught with challenges. Russia’s diminished export market following the war in Ukraine, coupled with the logistical difficulties and costs associated with utilizing a “shadow fleet” to bypass sanctions, make this a complex undertaking. Currently, Mexico is providing limited energy shipments, barely sufficient to prevent a complete blackout. Estimates suggest Cuba could be without energy within three months, prompting embassies to consider evacuation plans and the Cuban government to prepare for potential “martial law.”

IV. The Deteriorating Humanitarian Situation in Cuba

The situation in Cuba is rapidly deteriorating across multiple fronts. Tourism has plummeted, with Canadian airlines suspending flights due to refueling difficulties. Food production is in “dire straits,” leading to outbreaks of tropical diseases like the chicken or oucho virus. Alarmingly, the infant mortality rate has risen dramatically, from approximately 5 per 1,000 live births in 2021 to nearly 15 per 1,000 in late 2025. The combined effect of resource scarcity and mass emigration – particularly the loss of educated professionals – severely limits Cuba’s resilience. Addressing this requires energy, food, medicine, and sustained trade.

V. The Obama-Era Thaw and its Reversal

The Obama administration’s “reproshar” policy represented a period of improved US-Cuba relations, increasing American tourism and fostering partnerships in healthcare, sports, and other areas. Cuba anticipated a surge in US tourism comparable to Canada’s resort model. The policy also facilitated more natural relations given the close proximity of the two countries and the large expatriate community. Donald Trump initially expressed interest in potential resort development in Cuba, but ultimately reversed the Obama-era policies, leading to significant inflation and energy shortages.

VI. The Impact of Outmigration and Russia’s Opportunity

The massive outmigration of Cubans has created a critical shortage of skilled professionals – engineers, energy workers, sanitation personnel – essential for maintaining infrastructure and addressing the current crisis. This is creating an opportunity for Russia to strengthen its partnership with Cuba. Notably, approximately 5,000 Cubans have reportedly signed contracts to fight alongside Russian troops in Ukraine.

Quote:

“...if you were to break the Cuban government, then thereby you could probably win every county for the next election in Florida. But it doesn't get to the reality of how a power vacuum is filled or how a potential humanitarian crisis could be managed.” – The speaker, commenting on Marco Rubio’s motivations.

Conclusion:

The current US policy towards Cuba, driven by a combination of Trump’s hemispheric assertiveness and Rubio’s regime change ambitions, is proving counterproductive and exacerbating a severe humanitarian crisis. The lack of a viable opposition, the mass exodus of skilled professionals, and the logistical challenges of external assistance create a precarious situation. While Russia presents a potential lifeline, its support is limited and comes with geopolitical implications. A shift towards a more pragmatic approach focused on trade and engagement, similar to the Obama-era policies, is crucial to prevent further deterioration and address the urgent needs of the Cuban people.